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WeatherMatrix
© 2002 WeatherMatrix.Net - Redistribution
Prohibited. Usage logged.
From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Sun Dec 14 2003 - 15:08:44 EST
Florida Daily Weather Discussion
#2003-63 Published 12/14/03 At 2:00 PM
First let's mention the huge and probable record breaking snow storm for the
middle Atlantic and New England regions.
On 12/11/03 I posted:
In the last 24 hours the same areas of the mid Atlantic and New England
regions that received 18-40" snow last week are now seeing a heavy rainfall
event. This storm system will dump snow on its northern fringes.
Speaking of snow, as improbable as it may seem the same areas that received
heavy snowfall last week may experience another heavy snow fall event early
next
week!
On 12/13/03 I posted:
At this moment it's looking like 18-24" from western Maryland, to central
Pennsylvania, through upstate New York, all of Vermont, all of New Hampshire
except the SE corner and inland Maine. The same area of New Hampshire and
Maine that saw up to 40" on 12/11/03 may see 30-40" again.
On 12/17-18/03 another heavy snow event will occur once again and this time
it could be heavy along the coast like the first storm of the season.
On 12/14/03 I now say that some areas could see 50" snow fall totals!
Now to Florida weather.
On Saturday 12/13/03 ahead of the cold front we saw a mild and pleasant day
with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 60's north, low to mid 70's
central and upper 70's south.
Most of the northern and central areas of the state received appreciable
rainfall overnight and earlier this morning. Much the central peninsula
received 1.00-2.00" of needed rainfall, with a smaller area in Manatee,
Sarasota and Orange Counties receiving 3.00+".
Florida Daily Weather Discussion
#2003-63 Published 12/14/03 At 2:00 PM
First let's mention the huge and probable record breaking snow storm for the
middle Atlantic and New England regions.
On 12/11/03 I posted:
In the last 24 hours the same areas of the mid Atlantic and New England
regions that received 18-40" snow last week are now seeing a heavy rainfall
event. This storm system will dump snow on its northern fringes.
Speaking of snow, as improbable as it may seem the same areas that received
heavy snowfall last week may experience another heavy snow fall event early
next
week!
On 12/13/03 I posted:
At this moment it's looking like 18-24" from western Maryland, to central
Pennsylvania, through upstate New York, all of Vermont, all of New Hampshire
except the SE corner and inland Maine. The same area of New Hampshire and
Maine that saw up to 40" on 12/11/03 may see 30-40" again.
On 12/17-18/03 another heavy snow event will occur once again and this time
it could be heavy along the coast like the first storm of the season.
On 12/14/03 I now say that some areas could see 50" snow fall totals!
Now to Florida weather.
On Saturday 12/13/03 ahead of the cold front we saw a mild and pleasant day
with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 60's north, low to mid 70's
central and upper 70's south.
Most of the northern and central areas of the state received appreciable
rainfall overnight and earlier this morning. Much the central peninsula
received 1.00-2.00" of needed rainfall, with a smaller area in Manatee,
Sarasota and Orange Counties receiving 3.00+".
Check out the NWS Tampa Bay NEXRAD rainfall accumulation link below.
http://66.175.38.157/121403rainfalltotal.gif
I did not hear of any severe weather across the northern and central parts
of the state as the squall line swept through during the overnight hours and
was missing the extra atmospheric instability due to surface heating that
the Sun would have provided. Now severe weather the southern peninsula may
be another story today as the squall line is seeing the added atmospheric
instability from surface heating.
Cold air advection will begin later tonight and last into Monday 12/15/03 as
the complex low pressure system in the Carolina's strengthens.
We will see another one day period with a warm up into the 70's on Tuesday
12/16/03, followed by yet another winter storm system sweeping across the
sunshine state on Wednesday 12/17/03 with a chance of thunderstorms once
again, followed by colder weather. This cold air mass may be the coldest of
the season so far with a light freeze into inland rural areas of the south
central peninsula and near freezing in urban areas on Friday/Saturday
morning 12/19-20/03.
I don't have the timing down yet but another winter storm and colder weather
will arrive somewhere around the Christmas Eve/Day.
I'm increasingly concerned about the "potential" for a significant freeze
event for the agricultural areas of Florida between Christmas and into the
new year. The series of winter storms racing across the country will help to
create a positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, with is a
ridge in the west and a trough in the east and also a negative North
Atlantic Oscillation. (NAO) It's possible that much of the eastern 2/3's of
the U.S. will have snow cover for an extended period of time. Also Alaska
and Canada has been a source region for once brutally cold Arctic air mass
after another for the past three months and this will continue. Recently
temperatures have dropped to -60 deg. F in Alaska and -40 deg. F as far
south as Saskatchewan, Canada. It all adds up to a possibility of bitter
cold Arctic air racing southward towards Florida with little modification
due to snow cover. This is what happened in December 1983 and 1989. BUT LIKE
I SAID LAST WEEK I'M NOT PREDICTING A BIG FREEZE. I'M ONLY DISCUSSING THE
POTENTIAL USING CLIMATOLOGY AND TELECONNECTIONS.
Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet
stream will eventually undercut the PNA pattern and should prevent a
prolonged cold weather period.
Happy Holidays,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
SKYWARN Observer HIL-249
SWFWMD Observer #574
Plant City, FL, USA
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric
weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available
to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my
day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour
forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily
and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are
necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on
current weather events.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and
inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks
are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life
or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human
error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site
and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual
property and copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida
Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction
of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
I did not hear of any severe weather across the northern and central parts
of the state as the squall line swept through during the overnight hours and
was missing the extra atmospheric instability due to surface heating that
the Sun would have provided. Now severe weather the southern peninsula may
be another story today as the squall line is seeing the added atmospheric
instability from surface heating.
Cold air advection will begin later tonight and last into Monday 12/15/03 as
the complex low pressure system in the Carolina's strengthens.
We will see another one day period with a warm up into the 70's on Tuesday
12/16/03, followed by yet another winter storm system sweeping across the
sunshine state on Wednesday 12/17/03 with a chance of thunderstorms once
again, followed by colder weather. This cold air mass may be the coldest of
the season so far with a light freeze into inland rural areas of the south
central peninsula and near freezing in urban areas on Friday/Saturday
morning 12/19-20/03.
I don't have the timing down yet but another winter storm and colder weather
will arrive somewhere around the Christmas Eve/Day.
I'm increasingly concerned about the "potential" for a significant freeze
event for the agricultural areas of Florida between Christmas and into the
new year. The series of winter storms racing across the country will help to
create a positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, with is a
ridge in the west and a trough in the east and also a negative North
Atlantic Oscillation. (NAO) It's possible that much of the eastern 2/3's of
the U.S. will have snow cover for an extended period of time. Also Alaska
and Canada has been a source region for once brutally cold Arctic air mass
after another for the past three months and this will continue. Recently
temperatures have dropped to -60 deg. F in Alaska and -40 deg. F as far
south as Saskatchewan, Canada. It all adds up to a possibility of bitter
cold Arctic air racing southward towards Florida with little modification
due to snow cover. This is what happened in December 1983 and 1989. BUT LIKE
I SAID LAST WEEK I'M NOT PREDICTING A BIG FREEZE. I'M ONLY DISCUSSING THE
POTENTIAL USING CLIMATOLOGY AND TELECONNECTIONS.
Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet
stream will eventually undercut the PNA pattern and should prevent a
prolonged cold weather period.
Happy Holidays,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
SKYWARN Observer HIL-249
SWFWMD Observer #574
Plant City, FL, USA
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric
weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available
to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my
day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour
forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily
and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are
necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on
current weather events.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and
inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks
are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life
or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human
error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site
and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual
property and copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida
Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction
of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
I don't have the timing down yet but another winter storm and colder weather
will arrive somewhere around the Christmas Eve/Day.
I'm increasingly concerned about the "potential" for a significant freeze
event for the agricultural areas of Florida between Christmas and into the
new year. The series of winter storms racing across the country will help to
create a positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, with is a
ridge in the west and a trough in the east and also a negative North
Atlantic Oscillation. (NAO) It's possible that much of the eastern 2/3's of
the U.S. will have snow cover for an extended period of time. Also Alaska
and Canada has been a source region for once brutally cold Arctic air mass
after another for the past three months and this will continue. Recently
temperatures have dropped to -60 deg. F in Alaska and -40 deg. F as far
south as Saskatchewan, Canada. It all adds up to a possibility of bitter
cold Arctic air racing southward towards Florida with little modification
due to snow cover. This is what happened in December 1983 and 1989. BUT LIKE
I SAID LAST WEEK I'M NOT PREDICTING A BIG FREEZE. I'M ONLY DISCUSSING THE
POTENTIAL USING CLIMATOLOGY AND TELECONNECTIONS.
Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet
stream will eventually undercut the PNA pattern and should prevent a
prolonged cold weather period.
Happy Holidays,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
SKYWARN Observer HIL-249
SWFWMD Observer #574
Plant City, FL, USA
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric
weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available
to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my
day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour
forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily
and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are
necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on
current weather events.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and
inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks
are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life
or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human
error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site
and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual
property and copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida
Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction
of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
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