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From: Thomas Giella, KN4LF (kn4lf{at}gbronline.com)
Date: Mon Dec 30 2002 - 13:36:19 EST
2002 Florida Daily Weather Discussion
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
Published Monday 12/30/02 11:00 AM EST
As I forecasted the subfreezing line extended down to approximately I-4
early this morning in inland rural areas of the central peninsula. The cold
spot in the state was 26 deg. at East Nobleton on the central peninsula. The
cold spot across the north was 29 deg. at Alachua, with the cold spot across
the southern peninsula at Immokalee and multiple other locations with 40
deg.
Other notable minimum temperatures on the central peninsula include 28 deg.
at Brooksville, Inverness, and Mount Plymouth, 29 deg. at San Antonio and
Knights Station (North Plant City) and 31 deg. with a heavy frost here in
rural west Plant City, east of Tampa,
We are now seeing a rapid warm up today into the 70's ahead of the next El
Nino enhanced winter storm, which arrives late Tuesday 12/31/02 and lasts
into New Years Day Wednesday 01/01/03. This means yet another round of
widespread heavy flooding rainfall and severe thunderstorms probable for the
state's already water logged river basins. Speaking of severe weather this
next system has a good potential for tornadoes, large hail and high straight
line winds.
December 2002 will close out with the month mean temperature at least 5 deg.
below normal and I expect January 2003 to also be very cold, with a
significant crop threatening freeze probable into the second week of the
month. I will elaborate on my January 2003 weather outlook in further detail
later today or tomorrow.
Published Sunday 12/29/02 11:00 AM EST
I misjudged the speed at which our cold surface high pressure ridge moved
east overnight. Most of this season we have had and El Nino enhanced fast
moving jet stream that has aided in moving our endless parade of cold
surface high pressure eastward at a fast clip. This time however I
overlooked the development of the interrelated mid level thumb ridge, which
allowed the surface high to move slower. End end result was a 25-30 mph
boundary level wind that allowed occasional mixing down to the surface,
resulting in a cyclical rise and fall of surface winds of 1-3, mph that
interfered with the strengthening of the surface level temperature inversion
and slowed the temperature fall.
Bottom line though is that this morning still dawned as the coldest of the
season with mid 20's deep into the south central citrus growing region, with
the subfreezing line deep into the inland rural southern peninsula. The cold
spot in the state was on the south central peninsula with 23 deg. at Venus,
which is located WNW of Lake Okeechobee. The cold spot across the north was
27 deg. at Crestview, with Brighton the cold spot across the southern
peninsula with 31 deg.
Other notable minimum temperatures on the central peninsula include 24 deg.
at East Nobleton, 25 deg. at Brooksville and Inverness, 26 deg. at San
Antonio, 27 deg. at Mount Plymouth and Archbold, 28 deg. at Knights Station,
Ocala and Lady Lake and 30 deg. with a heavy frost here in rural West Plant
City, east of Tampa.
As is usually the case except in severe freeze events, virtually all urban
reporting stations on the peninsula had minimum temperatures above freezing.
Lakeland had 33 deg., Jacksonville and Orlando had 34 deg., Melbourne 37
deg., Tampa and Fort Myers 40 deg. and Miami 53 deg.
Tonight will be another cold one though warmer then last night due to
airmass modification. The subfreezing line should extend down to
approximately I-4 for early Monday morning 12/30/02.
Then we will see a rapid warm up on Monday afternoon, as yet another El Nino
enhanced winter storm arrives during the early day Tuesday 12/31/02 and
lasts into New Years Day Wednesday 01/01/03. This means yet another round of
widespread heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms possible for the state's
already water logged river basins.
Thomas Giella
FL Meteorological & Climatic Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm
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