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[STORMREPORTS] Florida Cold and Wet

From: Thomas Giella, KN4LF (kn4lf{at}gbronline.com)
Date: Thu Dec 26 2002 - 12:58:31 EST

2002 Florida Daily Weather Discussion
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

Published Thursday 12/26/02 11:00 AM EST

Quite a swing in barometric pressure during the past three days here in not
so warm and sunny Florida. Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa the
barometric pressure was 30.27" on Monday 12/23, 29.74" on Tuesday-Wednesday
12/24-25 and now 30.30" on Thursday 12/26!

It's a cold late morning with temperatures struggling to reach 40 deg.
north, 50 deg. central and 60 deg. south by 12:00 noon, under mostly cloudy
skies with cold air advection on a gusty and dry NW-N wind. The cold spot
early this morning was 28 deg. in Crestview on the panhandle north. The cold
spot on the central peninsula was 32 deg. at East Nobleton and Scottsmoor.
The cold spot in the south was 42 deg. at Clewiston and La Belle.

As is common during and El Nino event, we have a strong and progressive
(fast moving) zonal mid and upper jet stream flow, with a jet max. of 210
mph over the SE U.S. This means lot's of mid and high clouds and wind during
the next 48 hours. This will act to limit the sub freezing line to near S.R.
50 on the central peninsula for early Friday morning 12/27/02.

During the day Friday we will have yet another 500 mb shortwave trough
quickly sweep through the state, with it's attendant surface cold front and
another round of cold air advection. This will result in and advection
(windy) freeze reaching down to approximately I-4 for early Saturday morning
12/28/02.

Skies should finally clear out on Saturday, as the coldest air of the season
continues to invade the state on a brisk NW-N wind. Maximum temperatures on
Saturday will struggle to reach 50 deg. across the central peninsula, Early
Sunday morning 12/29/02 should dawn with the coldest temperatures of the
winter season, as we see a radiational cooling freeze into the inland rural
areas of the Everglades region of the southern peninsula.

We begin a warm up on Sunday afternoon and into Monday 12/20/02, as yet
another El Nino enhanced winter storm arrives during the day Monday and
lasts into New Years Eve Tuesday 12/31/02. This means yet another round of
widepread heavy rainfall and thunderstorms for the state's already water
logged river basins and rivers already above flood stage.

Looking further down the road, teleconnections signals say that the first 10
days of January 2003 should be colder and wetter then normal, but with
chances of a widespread crop threatening freeze at less then 50%, thanks to
El Nino.

Published Thursday 12/26/02 12:00 AM EST

Quite a cool down here in Florida during the past 24 hours. Here in rural
west Plant City east of Tampa, the temperature dropped from 71 deg. at 12:00
AM 12/25/02 to 39 deg. at 12:00 AM 12/26/02, on NW winds of 20-40 mph! The
barometer has risen from 29.74" to 30.18". It's going to be a cold four day
period with a subfreezing temperature threat every morning!

Published Wednesday 12/25/02 11:00 AM EST

Quite a severe weather outbreak across the deep south in the past 24 hours
from Texas to Florida and Georgia. Tentatlveley At least 24 tornadoes
touched down with at least 12 injuries and many more reports of large hail
and straight line wind damage. Actually all things considered the region got
off fairly easy.

During the bad weather period, here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa I
observed the barometric pressure fall from 30.24 to 29.74", also the
temperature jumped from 59 to 71 deg. during the overnight hours of the
24th, as the squall line approached.

The central peninsula of Florida has seen widespread excessive rainfall in
the past 24 hours yet again. Totals ranged between 1-4", with a large swath
of 2-3". Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa I measured 2.85". That
brings my December 2002 total up to 12.07" and the year total to 82.00"!

I will say though that the winter storm system did not phase like I thought
it would, with no pre warm front icentropic lift rainfall event that would
have added another 1-3" to the storm rainfall totals. I mis-judged the speed
and timing of the northward movement of the warm front, with the cool
icentroopic lift rainfall occurring across the north central and northern
peninsula.

Unfortunately nearly every river basin in the state is saturated, with every
river at or above flood stage. With 3 more months of El Nino enhanced
rainfall possible, this El Nino rainfall anomaly of 2002-2003 may exceed the
previous record rainfall event from the El Nino 1997-1998.

Looks like we will be closing out December 2002 on a very cold note,
ensuring that December 2002 will be considerably colder then normal, like
November 2002.

Published Monday 12/23/02 11:00 AM EST

Yet another cold morning dawned in the sunshine state. The cold spot was 31
deg. at East Nobleton on the central peninsula. Looks like December will go
down in the record books as colder then normal just like November 2002. I
wonder what January 2003 holds?!

Another widespread heavy rainfall event with possible severe weather is
still on track for Tuesday-Wednesday 12/24-25/2002, with a lesser second
blow coming on Thursday-Friday 12/26-27/02. This could be a serious
excessive rainfall event across and already saturated watershed that has
seen 10-15" of rainfall so far this month, with standing water in many
locations and some rivers already above flood stage. This last rainfall
event may push December 2002 ahead of December 1997 as the wettest December
in the record books!

Also as I posted late yesterday evening, I can't think of anything worse at
Christmas then a death and destruction severe weather outbreak. It looks
possible from east Texas and Arkansas eastward through the deep south to the
east coast during the next 48 hours. This will then be followed by
unpleasant ice and snowfall conditions up the east coast from the Mid
Atlantic region into New England.

Unfortunately the GFS forecast model regurgitators are asleep at the wheel
on this winter storm event. In my opinion all of the models are clueless as
to the intensity of the impending severe weather and snowfall depth
potential.

It looks as though the last full week of 2002 will run 10-15 deg. below
normal, ensuring a significantly cold December 2002 for the record books. It
also looks like the coldest weather of the season will arrive by
Saturday-Sunday 12/28-29/02 with a tender crop threatening freeze possible
into inland rural areas of the northern Everglades district of the southern
peninsula. We are looking at minimum temperatures 20-25 deg. below normal
during the weekend, with warmer urban and suburban locations on the central
peninsula seeing their first sub-freezing temperatures of the season.

City folks do not realize that inland rural areas of the central peninsula
north of I-4 and west of the Ronald Reagan Florida Turnpike, have seen
repeated sub freezing temperature events in November and December 2002.

Published Monday 12/22/02 11:00 PM EST

I can't think of anything worse at Christmas then a death and destruction
severe weather outbreak. It looks possible from east Texas and Arkansas
eastward through the deep south to the east coast during the next 48 hours.
This will then be followed by unpleasant ice and snowfall conditions up the
east coast from the Mid Atlantic region into New England.

Thomas Giella
FL Meteorological & Climatic Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm 

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