The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For September 24, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For September 24, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Sat...103 At Alice TX
Low Sun...13 At West Yellowstone MT
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook For The North Atlantic Caribbean Sea And
The Gulf Of Mexico
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaac
located about 1580 miles east of the Leeward Islands.
The remnant of Tropical Storm Helene is a low pressure system centered about
260 miles south-southwest of Nantucket Massachusetts moving northeastward at
20 to 25 mph. This system appears to be re- acquiring tropical
characteristics...and if this trend continues advisories may be re-initiated
later today. Additional information on this system is contained in high seas
forecasts being issued by the marine prediction center in Washington D.C.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Sun Sep 24 11:47:30 2000
Flood
North Carolina
South Carolina
...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LUMBER... FOR THE LUMBER,
INCLUDING LUMBERTON, MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
Hurricane/Tropical Storm
United States
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.4 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED SEP 27 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
16.8N 40.7W 51 X X X 51 18.5N 44.5W X 16 10 1 27
17.5N 42.5W 17 16 X X 33
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON
C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE
D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
Non Precipitation
Colorado
...FREEZE ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO FOR TONIGHT...
Idaho
...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...
Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
South Dakota
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE
TONIGHT.
Utah
...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...
Winter Storm
Nebraska
Wyoming
...WINTER STORM WARNING CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOR HEAVY
SNOW THROUGH MID-MORNING...
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is less than a 2% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any
point
Hail Risk - Slight
There is a 5% probability area for hail, 3/4 inch or larger, over northeast
Texas, the south southeast 1/2 of Arkansas, the northern 1/2 of Louisiana,
Mississippi except the southern area, the northern 2/3 of Alabama, south
southwest Tennessee, and far west northwest Georgia.
The 15% probability area covers far east northeast Texas, northern
Louisiana, south southeast Arkansas, central and northern Mississippi, and
northwest Alabama.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is a 5% probability area for wind, in excess of 50 knots, over
northeast Texas, the south southeast 1/2 of Arkansas, the northern 1/2 of
Louisiana, Mississippi except the southern area, the northern 2/3 of
Alabama, south southwest Tennessee, and west northwest Georgia.
The 15% probability area covers northeast Louisiana, far southeast Arkansas,
central and northern Mississippi, north central and northern Alabama, far
central south Tennessee, and far west northwest Georgia.
Tomorrow's Risk - Slightly Moderate
The risk area tomorrow covers central and eastern Alabama, Georgia, and
South and North Carolina.
The area of greatest risk covers northern Georgia, central and northern
South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hr precipitation forecast is calling for over 2 inches of rainfall
over a portion of northeast Arkansas, and central west to central Tennessee.
Over an inch of rainfall is forecast over central and northern Arkansas,
Tennessee, far southern Missouri, far southern Kentucky, far northern
Mississippi, far northern Alabama, far northern Georgia.
The 24 - 48 hr precipitation forecast is calling for over an inch of
rainfall over portions of Virginia, and North Carolina.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood guidance.
Snow and Icing Forecast
The probability of heavy snow and/or significant icing is less than 20
percent.
=> USA Flood Report
The Flood Report is not produced on weekends.
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2000 - 0900 MDT
NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL III
CURRENT SITUATION:
Three new large fires were reported, two in the Southern Area and one in the
Eastern Great Basin. Containment was reached on ten large fires; one in
Southern California, one in the Northern Rockies and eight in the Southern
Area. Initial attack activity was light in all areas. Very high to extreme
fire indices were reported in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Nevada,
Oklahoma and Texas.
SOUTHERN AREA LARGE FIRES:
CHICKEN, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is 20 miles east of
Nacogdoches, TX. A Type II Incident Management Team (Ruggiero) is assigned.
No new information was received.
SPANISH GRANT, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is burning just south
of San Antonio, TX. The fire is burning in mesquite and oak. Approximately
20 homes were evacuated and two outbuildings were lost.
ARBUCKLE COMPLEX, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Ferguson) is assigned. This fire is 11 miles northwest of
Ardmore, OK. Suppression forces continue to make good progress towards
containment and mopup. Fire activity was limited due to higher humidity and
cloud cover. Residents evacuated from the Turner Falls area were allowed to
return.
BRISTOW COMPLEX, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This fire is six miles
northeast of Bristow, OK. Crews continue to monitor and mopup the fire.
Acreage increase due to more accurate mapping.
PRYOR CREEK, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This fire is six miles southeast
of Pryor, OK. Rough terrain and heavy fuels are making containment
difficult.
NOODLER, Southern Plains Regional Office, BIA. This fire is burning in
grass, brush, oak, and cedar five miles northeast of Anadarko, OK. Crews
continue to make good progress on containment and mopup.
CROMWELL, Eastern Oklahoma Regional Office, BIA. This fire is three miles
west of Cromwell, OK. Patrol and monitoring of the fire continues.
GORGE, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This fire is five miles west of
Wynona, OK, and is burning in grass and hardwood timber. All containment
lines continued to hold. Reduction in acreage is due to more accurate aerial
mapping.
ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
VALENTINE COMPLEX, Valentine National Wildlife Refuge. This complex of seven
lightning-caused fires is 25 miles south of Valentine, NE. Precipitation,
overcast conditions and low temperatures are helping with containment.
Minimal activity has been observed.
SPRING MOUNTAIN, Wind River Agency, BIA. This fire is 35 miles southeast of
Pavillion, WY. No new information to report.
NORTHERN ROCKIES AREA LARGE FIRES:
VALLEY COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Gauger) is assigned. These fires are seven miles south of Darby, MT.
The complex consists of the Bear, Taylor, Taylor Spot, Hilltop, Razor, Fat,
and Mink fires. Monitoring of uncontained fire perimeter continues. Crews
are making good progress on rehabilitation efforts.
SKALKAHO COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Hoff) is assigned. This group of fires is ten miles southeast of
Hamilton, MT. Crews are continuing to rehabilitate areas that have high
potential for erosion and flooding.
MUSSIGBROD COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. These fires are 12
miles northwest of Wisdom, MT. The complex includes the Mussigbrod and
Maynard fires. Rehabilitation has begun on primary containment lines. Crews
continue to clear hazard trees and gather equipment. Road closures continue
to be patrolled.
MIDDLE FORK COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. These fires are
30 miles southwest of Philipsburg, MT. The complex consists of the Falls
Creek, Cougar Creek, Coyote Springs, Medicine Lake, Skalkaho Pass, Lick
Creek, and Cooper Creek fires. Rehabilitation continues.
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
CLEAR CREEK COMPLEX, Salmon-Challis National Forest. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Stam) is assigned. This complex consists of the Clear
Creek, Marlin Springs, Full Circle, and Sisters fires. The 3rd Battalion,
2nd Marines from Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, commanded by LTC Smith is
assigned; partial demobilization of the battalion is in progress. Some
smoldering with very little open flame has been observed. The Type I
Incident Management Team (Stam) is preparing to transition with the Type II
Incident Management Team (Carr).
PECK, Payette National Forest. This wind driven fire, burning in grass and
timber in moderately steep terrain is 15 miles west of Council, ID.
SOUTHWEST AREA LARGE FIRES:
BLOODGOOD COMPLEX, Gila National Forest. A Fire Use Management Team (Cook)
is assigned. This complex consists of the Bloodgood and the Sierra fires.
These lightning ignited wildfires are being managed to accomplish resource
objectives. Both fires received wind gusts of 30 mph on ridges in the
vicinity of the fires. The fire is making short uphill runs with some
torching. Holding actions are being conducted on sections where the fire has
potential to breech Maximum Manageable Area or affect Gila Trout habitat.
OUTLOOK:
*** A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED FOR MISSISSIPPI FOR LOW FUEL MOISTURE ***
Across Oklahoma, Texas and the Gulf Coast states a low pressure will enter
the region helping to spread a cold front across Texas and Oklahoma. This
will bring scattered rain and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure
will continue over the Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the front, temperatures will
warm into the 90's with afternoon humidities ranging 30 to 40 percent inland
and 50 to 60 percent along the coastal region. High temperatures will be in
the 60's and 70's behind the front with humidities ranging from 40 to 50
percent. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 20 mph ahead of the front and
from the north after the frontal passage.
Across the West Coast high pressure continues to build over the region as a
low pressure moves into the central Rockies by the afternoon. This continues
the warming trend across all areas along with mostly sunny skies west of the
Rockies. Unsettled conditions can be expected across the central Rocky
Mountain region.
High temperatures will range from the 40's to 60's in the northern and
central Rockies, the mid 50's to 70's in the remainder of the Northwest and
Great Basin and 70's through the 90's from southwest Oregon into California
and the Southwest states. Afternoon minimum humidities will range from 15 to
30 percent in the driest areas along the west coast and in the southwest.
Winds will be northerly at 10 to 15 mph along the west coast and northern
Rockies, and southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph in the Southwest states.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 SEP 24 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(40.3 TO 50.0 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 SEP 22 18:27:59.00 40.9 N 124.4 W 14 km 3.6
15 miles WNW of Eureka, California
EARTHQUAKES IN STATE OF ALASKA
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 SEP 23 06:07:37.04 60.0 N 147.9 W 33 km 3.1
55 miles E of Seward, Alaska
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2115 100 LOST CITY CHEROKEE OK 3598 9513 FIRE DEPARTMENT (TUL)
2210 75 5 NW CENTRAHOMA COAL OK 3467 9640 REPORTED BY PUBLIC (OKC)
2224 75 CLEVELAND BLOUNT AL 3398 8658 DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
CLEVELAND AND A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS IN BLOUNT COUNTY. (BHM)
0020 175 ROWENA RUNNELS TX 3164 10004 GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL (SJT)
0350 100 10 E WINFIELD COWLEY KS 3724 9677 REPORTED BY EOC (ICT)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2105 UNK 2 NW FOSTORIA WOOD OH 4119 8343 LARGE LIMB DOWN BLOCKING A ROAD AND
SEVERAL POLLS DAMAGED OR DOWNED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTON OF THE COUNTY.
(CLE)
2115 UNK AMSDEN SENECA OH 4121 8331 SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWNED BY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS. (CLE)
2152 UNK 1 SE ELDON CHEROKEE OK 3592 9481 TREE LIMBS DOWN (TUL)
2340 UNK LINCOLN TALLADEGA AL 3361 8611 SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AND
BLOCKING SR 77 NEAR LINCOLN (BHM)
2357 UNK 2 N BARLING SEBASTIAN AR 3536 9430 (TUL)
2220 58 BLOOMVILLE SENECA OH 4104 8298 WINDS WERE ESTIMATED FROM 55 TO 60
MPH (CLE)
2255 60 WARDVILLE ATOKA OK 3464 9603 TREE DAMAGE REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (OKC)
2338 65 5 E PANAMA LE FLORE OK 3516 9456 STORM SPOTTER (TUL)
0010 UNK CHARLESTON FRANKLIN AR 3529 9403 POWER LINES DOWN (TUL)
0630 UNK PIGGOTT CLAY AR 3638 9018 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED POWER LINES DOWN
(MEM)
0022 60 OZARK FRANKLIN AR 3549 9383 LAW ENFORCEMENT (TUL)
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
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=> Links Area
National Geographic Fire Special Online
SEPTEMBER 23 -- BOISE, IDAHO: A new National Geographic fire presentation is
now online, featuring an interview with Norbert Schuster, 52, squad boss on
the Boise National Forest. Schuster talks about the camaraderie of
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and interview for the special, which was designed and produced by Jim Webb
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Thiessen's photos and interview.
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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