By CASI Member Jim Munley Jr.
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Date: Mon, 22 Mar 1999 17:03:57 EST
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Subject: March-May Forecast
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March-May 1999
90-Day Forecast
Atmospheric and oceanic indices indicate that a strong cold episode continues
in the east-central Tropical Pacific. This trend in expected to continue
through the Spring. Sea surface temperatures are running 2(F to 4(F below
normal near the Equator. The atmospheric pattern is typical of a cold Episode
in the east-central Equatorial Pacific with strong easterlies and strong
upper-level westerlies.
The pattern during the next three months across North America will consist of
a sub-tropical ridge in the central Pacific, a trough in the West and a ridge
in the Rockies into the Plains. A trough will also be found in the Northeast
with another ridge off the Southeast coast. This will result in a strong
Pacific jet into the Pacific Northwest. The pattern will continue to be
variable, which is typical of La Nina. The analog seasons chosen to match
temperature forecast is 1984. The analog chosen for precipitation forecast is
1983.
The pattern depicted above will likely result in above normal temperatures
across much of the West, the southern and central Plains and the Southeast.
Colder than normal water off the West coast will lessen the affect along the
California coast. The probability of above normal temperatures in these areas
is 56 percent, except 53 percent along the California coast. Below normal
temperatures are expected in the Northeast. The probaility of below normal
temperatures in this area is 55 percent. The remainder of the nation is
expected to average near normal with no significant deviation from normal
climatology.
Above normal precipitation is expected in the Pacific Northwest. The
probability of above normal precipitation in this region is 55 percent. Above
normal precipitation is also expected across the Great Lakes and the
Northeast. The probability of above normal precipitation in this area is 55
percent. Below normal precipitation is expected in the Southwest into the
central and southern Plains. The probability of below normal precipitation in
this region is 56 percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to average
near normal with no significant diviation from normal climatology.
Jim Munley Jr.
Jmu4810262{at}aol.com
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