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From: "Mike Reddin" <mreddin{at}nii.net>
To: <casilist{at}weatherwatchers.org>
Subject: Peliminary Alert
Date: Mon, 8 Mar 1999 16:33:04 -0500
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Potential for Explosive Cyclogensis (Bomb) conditon along Mid-Atlantic
or southeastern coastline this weekend.
I've been so busy this year I have not had time to extensively track or
comment on various interesting storms that have occured thus far, so I
thought I'd share
some comments on a *possible* major system for Saturday/Sunday. As most
of you know the computer models forecasting to 5 days out are generally
only 60% accurate, maybe 70% on day 4, 75% on day 3, and of course improve
the shorter the duration. However when model solutions converge on a
solution
5 days out, it's usually something worth watching!
The general pattern will bring a sharply amplifying shortwave into the
southern plains/ western Gulf of Mexico by midweek, resulting in cyclogensis
in that region. Expect an outbreak of severe convection, likely becoming
tornadic by thursday in the deep south/gulf coast. The mixture of Gulf
Inflow [increasing southerly flow off the Gulf at all levels of the
atmosphere] will clash with a major injection of Arctic air plunging down
from Canada. Add in a jetstream over 125 knots and strong positive vorticity
advection increasing with time and you have all the makings for alot of
watch boxes!
An intense baroclinic zone will form along the east coast as a massive
1040mb high settles down from central Canada and reinforces/dams the cold
air over the east coast, while the low redevelops into a coastal somewhere
along the mid-atlantic/Carolina coast late in the weekend. It's exactly
track
from that point is unclear, though the potential for very heavy snow exists
for
portions of the mountains of the mid-atlantic, and
PA/NJ/NY/CT/RI/MA/VT/NH/ME
with heavy rains SC/NC/VA/MD/DE/southern NJ/ southeast PA.
Winds could be a big issue, 1040mb high to the northwest and 990mb low [or
deeper] along the Mid atlantic coastline translates to a 50mb gradient. This
would favor
winds to 50 knots to the north of the storm center and possibly stronger
(the low is still deepening 12z Sunday according to some of the models, so a
55 even 60mb gradient is a possibility). There might be some similarities
here to "Super Storm 93" but I doubt the pressure would be as low and
importantly the 93 storm was an "inside runner" and this probably would be
along or just off the coast, thats one of the big unanswered questions.
This is still a long way off but for those of you that like to prepare for
this kind of event will at least have a clue now. I have high confidence in
the severe outbreak in the deep south for late Wednesday through Satuday
[progressing east with time] but much less
confidence in the bombing out of the low and its final track.
Mike Reddin
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