CASILIST : Fwd : Hurricane '99?

J (j{at}weatherwatchers.org)
Sun, 07 Mar 1999 19:28:46 -0500

Messages sorted by: [ date ][ thread ][ subject ][ author ]
Next message: J: "CASILIST : MORE on Chasing in the SE"
Previous message: J: "CASILIST : My Status In CASI ; New Members ; Chasers Conference in 2000"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------DD4DEC674AAE55B5176A3DE6
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

--------------DD4DEC674AAE55B5176A3DE6
Content-Type: message/rfc822
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Content-Disposition: inline

Message-ID: <36E30EC3.E9A14FF7{at}datasync.com>
Date: Sun, 07 Mar 1999 17:41:55 -0600
From: Don or Darla Arnold <DArnold{at}datasync.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
To: "Allen R. Walker" <kj5ng{at}juno.com>,
"Mid-Atlantic Weather Station [MAWS]" <wxmail{at}listbot.com>,
"1 tonin1{at}airmail.net" <tonin1{at}airmail.net>,
"Alric J. Knebel Of lite list" <alric{at}datasync.com>,
"bountyhunter{at}cyberjunkie.com" <bountyhunter{at}cyberjunkie.com>,
CASI Mailing List Recipients <casilist{at}weatherwatchers.org>,
Dave Larton <larton{at}garlic.com>,
Dawn and Jerry Maracle <Wolfgirl{at}datasync.com>,
Don Reeds <Reeds{at}meta3.net>, Doug Perez <kc5pdg{at}datasync.com>,
"EARL{at}WORK" <early{at}datasync.com>, ECOM LIST <listdpra{at}egroups.com>,
"Ernest E. Orman Jr." <w5oxa{at}datasync.com>,
"FLOYD D. EDMISTEN" <fde{at}datasync.com>, Fred Wolf <Fwolf{at}datasync.com>,
Jack ASC-2 <W8SOA{at}prodigy.net>,
"JARNS-ACES.INC{at}worldnet.att.net" <JARNS-ACES.INC{at}worldnet.att.net>,
"Jeff{at}Work" <jhanson744{at}digiscape.com>, john bb <jbeebe{at}datasync.com>,
John Bryant <Coastee{at}datasync.com>,
John Richards <JRichard{at}ametro.net>, "KB5AAU{at}aol.com" <KB5AAU{at}aol.com>,
Kenneth Povilonis <nightmove{at}zebra.net>,
Kenny Lawler <Zeos{at}primocomputers.com>,
Laurie Ann Moore <lmoore6{at}bellsouth.net>,
LILLY McKISSAK <sack11{at}prodigy.net>, Mario <mrosales{at}sprintmail.com>,
Martin Mueller <kc5vwz{at}datasync.com>,
MAWS Storm Report <MAWS_Storm_Report{at}listbot.com>,
michael redd <MsSkywarn{at}usa.net>,
"mmatran{at}mailhost.tcs.tulane.edu" <mmatran{at}mailhost.tcs.tulane.edu>,
"MMM1118{at}aol.com" <MMM1118{at}aol.com>,
Monte Hatfield <montehat{at}datasync.com>,
"mower{at}PioneerPlanet.infi.net" <mower{at}PioneerPlanet.infi.net>,
Norman SING <nsing{at}bellsouth.net>,
"Paul{at}work" <fireball92{at}netscape.net>,
"owl{at}theracetrack.com" <owl{at}theracetrack.com>,
Quinn Martin <Quinn{at}primocomputers.com>,
"R. L. Brown" <rbjb{at}datasync.com>,
"rdcarver{at}dstsystems.com" <rdcarver{at}dstsystems.com>,
Sandy Spooner <shortstem{at}webtv.net>,
"sarcommunications{at}onelist.com" <sarcomm{at}onelist.com>,
Skip Svoros <Svoros{at}execpc.com>, SKIPPER <Skipo{at}webtv.net>,
Storm Spotter List <wxspotter{at}onelist.com>,
The NeXus <nexus{at}datasync.com>, Tommy Jackson <kb5ogm{at}aol.com>,
twister8 <twistie8{at}aol.com>, WAYNE <kb5aau{at}qsl.net>,
weather list <weather{at}weatherstation.ml.org>,
Weather Monitor List <weathermonitor{at}onelist.com>,
Wordsmith <kjd03{at}gnofn.org>
Subject: [Fwd: Hurricane '99]
Content-Type: multipart/mixed;
boundary="------------1DADC60A078476D45A05AD5C"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------1DADC60A078476D45A05AD5C
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

HIS BEST GUESS..but I guess that is all we can really ask for
don

-- OUR WEB PAGE UPDATED 01 JAN 99 http://www.geocities.com/Heartland/Valley/6430 Darla and Don's Website http://hattiesburg.net/columns/darnold.shtml My online column

DARLA (dawn) ICQ# 7341931 Don (weathernut) ICQ# 14664294

Never argue with an idiot. He'll drag you down to his level, then beat you with experience.

--------------1DADC60A078476D45A05AD5C Content-Type: message/rfc822 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline

Received: by osh5 for darnold (with Cubic Circle's cucipop (v1.21 1997/08/10) Sun Mar 7 15:59:54 1999) X-From_: Dan.Petersen{at}worldnet.att.net Sun Mar 7 15:50:20 1999 Return-Path: Dan.Petersen{at}worldnet.att.net Received: from mtiwmhc04.worldnet.att.net (mtiwmhc04.worldnet.att.net [204.127.131.39]) by mail.ametro.net (8.8.8/AMC) with ESMTP id PAA21583 for <DArnold{at}datasync.com>; Sun, 7 Mar 1999 15:50:19 -0600 Received: from worldnet.att.net ([12.78.177.25]) by mtiwmhc04.worldnet.att.net (InterMail v03.02.07 118 124) with ESMTP id <19990307215018.KVQR19548{at}worldnet.att.net> for <DArnold{at}datasync.com>; Sun, 7 Mar 1999 21:50:18 +0000 Message-ID: <36E31E76.DEF06FEA{at}worldnet.att.net> Date: Sun, 07 Mar 1999 16:48:54 -0800 From: Dan Petersen <Dan.Petersen{at}worldnet.att.net> Reply-To: Dan.Petersen{at}worldnet.att.net X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.02 [en]C-DIAL (Win95; U) MIME-Version: 1.0 Newsgroups: sci.geo.meteorology To: Don or Darla Arnold <DArnold{at}datasync.com> Subject: Re: Hurricane '99 References: <19990306212831.05082.00004393{at}ng-da1.aol.com> <36E2B55D.59C9A099{at}datasync.com> Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="------------1817441F473574EE428B0DEE" X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000

--------------1817441F473574EE428B0DEE Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

Hi,

Dr. James O'Brien's group at Florida state has done research indicating that in years following el nino, the frequency of landfalling hurricanes remains about the same for south Florida (the exact number showed a slight increase) and the Gulf coast, but decreases going up the east coast north of Fl. In years following la nina, the frequency of landfalling hurricanes remains about the same for FL/Gulf Coast, but increases along the east coast north of Fl. Since we're following a la nina year, all interests up and down the gulf AND east coasts should be prepared for tropical cyclone activity in 1999.

Climatologically, the highest frequency of incidence of major landfalling hurricanes is along the shores of south Florida from Palm Beach to Key West, so it's not a bad first guess. Does anyone have any skill at saying where tropical cyclones are going to hit now? Not beyond the 'refined' climatology noted above. The original author's prediction was not presented with any scientific methodology or supporting research breakthroughs, so it's doubtful any real insight that can be gained from him/her.

For info from Bove et.al.(Dr. O'Brien's group) on the marked contrast in the number of hurricanes/number of major hurricanes following el nino/la nina years, see http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~bove/hurr.shtml

Dan Petersen

Don or Darla Arnold wrote:

> HOW come you are targeting s.fla and the gulf coast more than > the atlantic coast . > don > > StormJBG wrote: > > > Well folks I think this 99' hurricane season is going to very active. My early > > predictions are for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. All > > the conditions seem to be setting up perfect this year and will produce one > > heck of a season. All interests along the the US coastline need to be weary of > > the ominious signs developing and a season which is fast approaching. I urge > > all residents especially southern florida and the gulf coast to remain vigilent > > this season as the potential for serious coastline destruction is very high!! > > --Jason > > -- > OUR WEB PAGE UPDATED 01 JAN 99 > http://www.geocities.com/Heartland/Valley/6430 Darla and Don's Website > http://hattiesburg.net/columns/darnold.shtml My online column > > DARLA (dawn) ICQ# 7341931 > Don (weathernut) ICQ# 14664294 > > Never argue with an idiot. He'll drag you down to his level, > then beat you with experience.

--------------1817441F473574EE428B0DEE Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

Hi,

Dr. James O'Brien's group at Florida state has done research indicating that in years following el nino, the frequency of landfalling hurricanes remains about the same for south Florida (the exact number showed a slight increase) and the Gulf coast, but decreases going up the east coast north of Fl. In years following la nina, the frequency of landfalling hurricanes remains about the same for FL/Gulf Coast, but increases along the east coast north of Fl. Since we're following a la nina year, all interests up and down the gulf AND east coasts should be prepared for tropical cyclone activity in 1999.

Dan Petersen

Don or Darla Arnold wrote:

HOW come you are targeting s.fla and the gulf coast more than
the atlantic coast .
don
StormJBG wrote:
> Well folks I think this 99' hurricane season is going to very active. My early
> predictions are for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. All
> the conditions seem to be setting up perfect this year and will produce one
> heck of a season. All interests along the the US coastline need to be weary of
> the ominious signs developing and a season which is fast approaching. I urge
> all residents especially southern florida and the gulf coast to remain vigilent
> this season as the potential for serious coastline destruction is very high!!
> --Jason
--
OUR WEB PAGE UPDATED 01 JAN 99
http://www.geocities.com/Heartland/Valley/6430 Darla and Don's Website
http://hattiesburg.net/columns/darnold.shtml My online column
DARLA (dawn) ICQ# 7341931
Don (weathernut) ICQ# 14664294
Never argue with an idiot. He'll drag you down to his level,
then beat you with experience.

--------------1817441F473574EE428B0DEE-- --------------1DADC60A078476D45A05AD5C-- --------------DD4DEC674AAE55B5176A3DE6 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii; name="mailing-list-footer.txt" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline; filename="mailing-list-footer.txt" ************************************************* Central Atlantic Storm Investigators Mailing-List To Post: casilist{at}weatherwatchers.org To Cancel: lists-admin{at}weatherwatchers.org Archive: /members/casilist ************************************************* --------------DD4DEC674AAE55B5176A3DE6--

Next message: J: "CASILIST : MORE on Chasing in the SE"
Previous message: J: "CASILIST : My Status In CASI ; New Members ; Chasers Conference in 2000"