CASILIST: CASILIST : December Tropical System forecasted to form in the Western Carribbean

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(SMTPD32-4.06) id AA2F9D4011E; Thu, 10 Dec 1998 19:41:19 EDT
Message-ID: <001a01be249e$eafe0020$d9d662cf{at}mike-s>
From: "Michael Pitt" <hurricanemike{at}qisfl.net>
To: <CASILIST{at}weatherweathers.org>
Cc: "Jesse Ferrell" <j{at}weatherwatchers.org>
Subject: December Tropical System forecasted to form in the Western Carribbean
Date: Thu, 10 Dec 1998 19:40:56 -0500
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A low in the Central to Western Carribbean Sea looks promising for =
possible subtropical and maybe tropical development over the next few =
days. The Computer Models seem to forecast this too! =20

>From NPEC Tropical Desk 12/10/98 1904z(1404 est):
IN THIS CYCLE THE ETA IS DOING BETTER WITH RESPECT TO THE COLD COREUPPER =
LOW=20
DOMINATING THE WRN CARIBBEAN. LIKE THE MRF AND EUROPEANMDLS PREVIOUSLY=20
SUGGESTED..THE ETA NOW FCSTS THE LOW TO FOLLOW ASLOW WNW =
TRAJECTORY..WHILE=20
WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS. THE 250 HPALOW IS FCST NEAR LA CEIBA HONDURAS =
BY 24=20
HRS..MOVING OVER BELIZE BY48 HRS..WHERE IT WILL THEN FILL. THE EUROPEAN =
MDLS NOW=20
SIDED WITHTHE MRF IN FCSTING WHAT APPEARS AS A LATE SEASON TROPICAL =
STORMOVER=20
THE WRN CARIBBEAN BY 48 HRS..THAT SLOWLY TRACKS THROUGH HEYUCATAN =
CHANNEL BY 72=20
HRS. THE NGM/ETA HAVE NOT JOINED THEBANDWAGON..INSTEAD PROJECTING AN =
INVERTED=20
TROUGH TO PROPAGATEACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW..AND DEVELOPING SFC=20
SYSTEM..AREFCST TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL..FIRST =
CONCENTRATING OVER
JAMAICA..AND SLOWLY SPREADING INTO CAYMAN ISLANDS BY 24 HRS. THEMDLS =
THEN=20
PROJECT AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO EXTEND ACROSS =
CAYMAN=20
ISLANDS-YUCATAN CHANNEL..AFFECTING THE WRN TIPOF CUBA AND CANCUN AT =
36-72 HRS.=20
EXPECT UPPER CONVERGENCE OVERBELIZE-YUCATAN AS THE LOW/TROUGH TRACKS W =
THROUGH=20
48 HRS..BUT BY48-54 HRS THE DRYING TREND WILL BE REVERSED..WITH A SHARP=20
INCREASEDIN LAYERED MOISTURE.

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From NPEC Tropical Desk 12/10/98 1904z(1404 est):
IN THIS CYCLE = THE ETA=20 IS DOING BETTER WITH RESPECT TO THE COLD COREUPPER LOW
DOMINATING = THE WRN=20 CARIBBEAN. LIKE THE MRF AND EUROPEANMDLS PREVIOUSLY
SUGGESTED..THE = ETA NOW=20 FCSTS THE LOW TO FOLLOW ASLOW WNW TRAJECTORY..WHILE
WEAKENING IN THE = PROCESS. THE 250 HPALOW IS FCST NEAR LA CEIBA HONDURAS BY 24 =
HRS..MOVING=20 OVER BELIZE BY48 HRS..WHERE IT WILL THEN FILL. THE EUROPEAN MDLS NOW =
SIDED=20 WITHTHE MRF IN FCSTING WHAT APPEARS AS A LATE SEASON TROPICAL STORMOVER =
THE=20 WRN CARIBBEAN BY 48 HRS..THAT SLOWLY TRACKS THROUGH HEYUCATAN CHANNEL BY = 72=20
HRS. THE NGM/ETA HAVE NOT JOINED THEBANDWAGON..INSTEAD PROJECTING AN = INVERTED
TROUGH TO PROPAGATEACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW..AND = DEVELOPING=20 SFC
SYSTEM..AREFCST TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL..FIRST=20 CONCENTRATING OVER
JAMAICA..AND SLOWLY SPREADING INTO CAYMAN ISLANDS = BY 24=20 HRS. THEMDLS THEN
PROJECT AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION = TO=20 EXTEND ACROSS CAYMAN
ISLANDS-YUCATAN CHANNEL..AFFECTING THE WRN = TIPOF CUBA=20 AND CANCUN AT 36-72 HRS.
EXPECT UPPER CONVERGENCE OVERBELIZE-YUCATAN = AS THE=20 LOW/TROUGH TRACKS W THROUGH
48 HRS..BUT BY48-54 HRS THE DRYING TREND = WILL BE=20 REVERSED..WITH A SHARP
INCREASEDIN LAYERED = MOISTURE.