This system spawned a tornado in Georgia last night which killed 6 and
injured 70.
Moderate Risks, though not unheard of, are fairly rare for the CASI
area. It indicates that the atmosphere is unstable enough to produce
severe thunderstorms across the area, including the large severe
thunderstorms called "supercells". The storms today are expected to
produce high winds, large hail, and possible tornados. This severe
weather will not be widespread but the storms which do pop up will most
likely be severe. The complete discussion is available at the following
URL and a clip of the discussion is copied below.
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~spc/products/outlook/dy1.htm
...CAROLINAS...
APPROACH OF AL SPEED MAX AND DEVELOPMENT OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE
WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND SE VA
LATER TODAY. COMBINATION OF MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK MID
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION LIKELY TO RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF SLOW-MOVING WARM
FRONT THAT AT THE MOMENT EXTENDS FROM NEAR ECG TO NEAR CLT. THE
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH TN UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HEAD
NWD INTO NRN VA/WV...BEYOND AREA OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...ASSUMING THAT A SURFACE WAVE INDEED DEVELOPS TO MAINTAIN
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWS
WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO TONIGHT.
--
==============================================================
Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist - j{at}weatherwatchers.org
Central Atlantic Storm Investigators - www.weatherwatchers.org
"A tornado? Why wasn't it dissipated by the weather
modification net?" --Jean-Luc Picard || ICQ No. 136862 ||