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[STORMREPORTS] Florida Cold Weather

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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Wed Dec 15 2004 - 13:24:03 EST

This Wednesday morning 12/15/04 dawned very cold once again in Florida, with
the subfreezing line extending southward to around S.R. 60 across the inland
central peninsula.

The cold spot in the state this morning was 23 deg. at Lake Butler in the NE
region of the state. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 26 deg. at
East Nobleton. The cold spot on the south peninsula was 35 deg. at
Immokalee.

Other notable minimum temperatures across the north include 24 deg. at Mayo
and 25 deg. at Perry. Other notable minimum temperatures across the central
peninsula include 28 deg. in Ocala, Plant City and Knights Station, 29 deg.
at Darby and Holder, 30 deg. at East Tampa, Umatilla and Wesley Chapel, 31
deg. at Dade City and 32 deg. at Dover, Mount Plymouth and Scottsmoor. The
airport at Orlando in the urban heat island had 37 deg. and Tampa 34 deg.

We will see one more cold early Thursday morning 12/16/04, then a slow
warm-up through Saturday 12/18/04. THEN things get very ominous for the
state, as it appears that the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream will
phase with the Arctic/Polar jet stream and allow the handoff of a Siberian
Arctic air mass into Florida.

So we have to worry about a very significant freeze event probability deep
into the southern peninsula for the period Monday-Wednesday 12/20-22/04.
There is also a distinct possibility of a light snowfall event across the
central peninsula on Monday 12/20/04.

Here are a couple of weather data links. This first one
http://www.kn4lf.com/MRF850mbtemp7am122004.gif is from the GFX model and
shows the plunge of Arctic air into the Florida peninsula. The second one
http://www.kn4lf.com/tpasnowfcst122004.gif shows the forecast for snow at
Tampa on 12/20/04.

Note! This weather event is not written in stone yet, as forecast models at
5 days out are still a bit shaky BUT teleconnection patterns do point to
this event occurring.

NOTE! If you do not want to receive these postings advise me directly at
kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com and you will be removed.

As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do
not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily meteorological
synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in
past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.

Also as Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science,
these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in
lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are
for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of
God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is
my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella,
all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long
as proper credit is given.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net

SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data:
http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm 

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