[STORMREPORTS] Cold Winter 2004-2005 Ahead
I meant to add this in my last email but hit the send button on the keyboard by accident.
So far this fall of 2004 cool weather on the Florida peninsula has been non existent. As recent as October 4th I recorded
Also we are in a growing El Nino pattern at this time. It will continue to slowly grow through winter 2004-2005 but only to weak
BUT weak El Nino's that follow very active hurricane seasons tend to produce wet and most importantly cold winters in Florida. I actually look for a
Just remember you heard it here first.
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
Take Care,
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Looking at the latest visible satellite loop it appears that our tropical disturbance in the Gulf Of Campeche region of the Gulf Of Mexico has grown into T.D. #14. A low level circulation is now evident and convection continues to grow.
Future Tropical Cyclone Matthew's track is a tough call right now but my best educated guess is an eventual NE- ENE track with a landfall somewhere west of Panama City, FL, YES FLORIDA. This track is derived by extrapolating future movement in unison with a "future" developing, southward digging, eastward moving mid level longwave trough.
This is the tropical cyclone that I first forecasted on Saturday September 25th, 2004 to eventually develop. The disturbance was initially a strong tropical wave that passed westward south of Jamaica and then across the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay Of Campeche region of the Gulf Of Mexico. A piece of the T.W's energy crossed into the Pacific Ocean west of Mexico and a second piece stayed behind in the BOC to stew and interact with disturbances in the subtropical jet stream.
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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Thu Oct 07 2004 - 12:03:41 EDT
a maximum temperature of 91 deg, with an evening convective thunderstorm that left 0.55" of rainfall. If I didn't know better
I would think that it's still August. BUT following the passage of future T.C. Matthew Florida will see it's first real cool spell so far this fall season.
levels. Weak El Nino's typically increase rainfall and cooler then normal weather in Florida but not by allot.
wetter and colder than normal winter 2004-2005 east of the Mississippi River.
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
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