[STORMREPORTS] TD #14/Future TC Matthew Forms
Looking at the latest visible satellite loop it appears that our tropical disturbance in the Gulf Of Campeche region of the Gulf Of Mexico has grown into T.D. #14. A low level circulation is now evident and convection continues to grow.
Future Tropical Cyclone Matthew's track is a tough call right now but my best educated guess is an eventual NE- ENE track with a landfall somewhere west of Panama City, FL, YES FLORIDA. This track is derived by extrapolating future movement in unison with a "future" developing, southward digging, eastward moving mid level longwave trough.
This is the tropical cyclone that I first forecasted on Saturday September 25th, 2004 to eventually develop. The disturbance was initially a strong tropical wave that passed westward south of Jamaica and then across the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay Of Campeche region of the Gulf Of Mexico. A piece of the T.W's energy crossed into the Pacific Ocean west of Mexico and a second piece stayed behind in the BOC to stew and interact with disturbances in the subtropical jet stream.
Take Care,
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Thu Oct 07 2004 - 11:34:03 EDT
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
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