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WeatherMatrix
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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Fri Dec 12 2003 - 11:28:27 EST
Florida Daily Weather Discussion
#2003-62 Published 12/12/03 At 11:00 AM
Per yesterday's discussion where I forecasted the subfreezing line down to
I-4 in inland rural areas, it did not occur. After discussing the fast
moving weather pattern we are presently in, I then failed to take into
account high cloudiness upstream over Texas associated with the next
incoming winter storm system and mid level clouds upstream in association
with a weak 500 mb shortwave trough. In any event the mid and high level
broken cloud decks brought the temperature fall to a screeching halt.
At my location in suburban SW Plant City the temperature did drop from 62
deg. to 43 deg. in three hours but then bottomed out at only 40 deg. The
cold spot in the state was 32 deg. at multiple locations across the north
and north central regions.
Today through Saturday morning 12/13/03 will continue chilly but we then we
see a big warm up into the 60's and 70's during the day Saturday ahead of
the next winter storm system. This next storm system arrives late Saturday
into Sunday and continues to look more potent then the last one. It looks
like we will see phasing of the polar and subtropical jet stream phasing
along the Gulf Coast. This would place Florida in the right rear quadrant of
a 150+ mph jet maximum and provide for large scale isentropic lift and a
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall event. There also exists a minor to
moderate potential for severe weather.
Colder weather rushes in again for Monday-Tuesday 12/15-16/03 followed by
yet another storm system and colder weather for Wednesday-Thursday
12/17-18/03 and once again on Tuesday-Wednesday 12/23-24.
Happy Holidays,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
SKYWARN Observer HIL-249
SWFWMD Observer #574
Plant City, FL, USA
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric
weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available
to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my
day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour
forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily
and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are
necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on
current weather events.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and
inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks
are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life
or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human
error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site
and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual
property and copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida
Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction
of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
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