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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Tue Dec 02 2003 - 12:22:06 EST
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Florida Daily Weather Discussion
#2003-53 Published 12/02/03 At 12:00 PM
Standard Disclaimer
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000,
I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily
Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be
less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high
90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at
11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will
not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and
inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks
are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life
or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human
error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site
and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual
property and copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida
Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction
of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
I'm back and so is winter my favorite time of the year! Summer in Florida
can be a long row to hoe typically lasting from mid May to mid October. As
we all know summer 2003 was very wet like summer 2002.
As we all know too October and November 2003 were warmer and drier then
normal and in a sense prolonged our summer season of heat and humidity. Here
at my personal weather station in suburban SW Plant City October 2003
averaged out at 74.8 deg. +0.4 deg. above normal, rainfall 0.75", 2.08"
below normal. November 2003 averaged out at 69.7 deg, 2.7 deg. above normal,
rainfall 1.82", 0.04" below normal. Here in Plant City I observed a maximum
temperature of 90 deg. on the 5th, a new record for the date and month. I
have personal weather records going back to 1950 and have never seen a 90
deg. reading in November until now.
The reason for the warm fall weather can be tied to a weak but strengthening
(ENSO) El Nino ocean water temperature anomaly, and a positive (AO) Arctic
Oscillation and (NAO) North Atlantic Oscillation. What are these? Our
atmosphere and oceans contain regional and hemispheric size circulations
that change phase with time, creating our sensible weather. Meteorologists
and Oceanographers continue to discover new circulations proving that our
planet is a complicated beast that will never be tamed nor fully understood.
Many of these circulations create short term and medium term weather
patterns of heat and cold, flood and drought. For more information on
weather oscillations check out the right side column of my website Florida
Space and Atmospheric Weather Institute website at
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm .
The peninsula did not see it's first substantial cold front until November
14th, way behind schedule so to speak and the first real cold spell did not
arrive until the 28th. To recap the past few days of weather goings on.
The cold spot in the state on Sunday the 30th was Crestview in the NW
panhandle region with 23 deg. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 27
deg. at Holder in Citrus County and East Nobleton in Sumter County. The cold
spot on the southern peninsula was 44 deg. at Immokalee. The subfreezing
line extended down to near I-4 in inland rural areas of the central
peninsula. The coldest southward subfreezing temperature occurred in Knights
Station just north of Plant City with 30 deg. Here in suburban SW Plant City
I had a reading of 33 deg. Other notable southward minimum temperatures
include 34 deg. at Archbold and 32 deg. in Venus in Highlands County and 32
deg.
The cold spot in the state on Monday December 1st was 28 deg. in Jasper and
Cross City in the non panhandle north region, with the 32 deg. line
extending down to approximately S.R. 44 in inland rural north central
peninsula. Here in SW Plant City I had a reading of 51 deg. During the day
renewed (CAA) cold air advection began anew on the peninsula behind a 500 mb
shortwave trough.
The cold spot in the state this morning was 34 deg. at Brooksville and East
Nobleton on the central peninsula. Here in SW Plant City I had a reading of
40 deg. During the overnight hours another cold front swept across the
peninsula and is responsible for our breezy conditions from the NE this
morning.
We should see a breezy NE wind for the next 72 hours with near normal
temperature. During the period Thursday-Friday 12/4-5/03 another strong cold
front will sweep across the state ushering in another cold snap similar to
last weekend, with subfreezing temperatures visiting portions of the inland
rural peninsula.
I expect the month of December 2003 to be much colder and wetter then
November. Temperature will average out a little below normal and
precipitation a little above normal. Why? The North Atlantic Oscillation
will swing back into a negative phase, which always
Produces colder then normal temperature in the Eastern U.S.
Happy Holidays,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
SKYWARN Observer HIL-249
Plant City, FL, USA
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
EL87WX
Yaesu FT-840 & PSK31 Digital Mode E Group
http://wxmatrix-membersonly/group/yaesu_ft840
160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Friend Website Design www.kn4lf.com
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