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WeatherMatrix
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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Mon Nov 03 2003 - 16:29:20 EST
Huge and prolific solar flare producing sunspot group #'s 10486 and 10487
will rotate out of view across the Sun's western limb soon, hooray!!! With
their disappearance we can expect solar, space and geomagnetic activity to
get back to a quieter and more normal level. Unfortunately though we will
still have to deal with minor Kp-5 to moderate Kp-6 geomagnetic storming
with the endless parade of Coronal Holes that are most prevalent on the
downward side of a solar cycle.
As discussed yesterday sunspot group #10486 produced a huge X8.3 class solar
flare between 1704-2039 UTC. It produced a 30000+ KC radio blackout on the
sunlight side of the Earth centered on the America's. Here in Central
Florida, USA the blackout began at 1705 UTC and ended at 1833 UTC. It also
produced another elevated energetic proton level of >10 MeV (10+o) that
peaked at 797 pfu.
Though #10486 it is no longer geo-effective it still produced a large and
very fast (1079 km/s) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that will blast our
Magnetosphere later today or early UTC tomorrow. It's always a tough
forecast with partially geo-effective CME's but here goes. Mid latitudes
should see strong K-7 G3 to severe K-8 G4 storming, with high latitudes
extreme K-9 G5 storming. Mid latitude visible Aurora is also possible if the
Bz becomes negative. At 1806 UTC the Bz is +1.9.
At 0130 UTC today sunspot group #10488 produced a huge X2.7 class solar
flare followed at 0943 UTC by an even larger X4.3. Though both produced
radio blackouts and probable CME's, they are not geo-effective and will
probably have no negative impact on Earth's magnetic field.
It's to bad that SWL's and Ham's really could not take full advantage of the
really high daily solar flux levels of the past 10 days. As is often the
case large and numerous solar flares push the solar flux to very high levels
but then counteract the high numbers with F layer destroying geomagnetic
storms. We saw 8 days with the solar flux level above 250 and several brief
periods where the solar flux exceeded 300. On 03/10/28 it reached 318, the
highest daily solar flux number of cycle 23. The previous highest had been
294 in March 2001.
By the way when activity returns to normal I will begin producing my formal
72 hour HF/MF radio propagation outlook again. For those unfamiliar with it
you can see it at http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm .
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
EL87WX
Yaesu FT-840 Digital Modes Website & E-List:
http://wxmatrix-membersonly/group/yaesu_ft840
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
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