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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Mon Sep 15 2003 - 09:29:20 EDT
Isabel has weakened overnight to a strong Cat 4 hurricane. She seems to be undergoing another eyewall replacement and cloud tops are cooling once again. Wind shear is still negligible and SST's very warm, so it's possible that she could once again regain Cat 5 status. The roller coaster of strengthening and weakening that Isabel is experiencing reminds me much of Cat 5 Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
As I forecasted 3 days ago, earlier this morning Isabel began here "SECOND" more westward turn and on this trajectory she would come ashore between Vero Beach and Melbourne. Once again like yesterday the NHC is calling it a wobble to the left.
A fellow expert long range Weather Forecaster/Meteorologist is having a difficult time seeing the westward turns that Isabel has/is taking but I think he is working virtually nonstop around the clock and is probably pretty tired by now. He is one of only four Meteorologists in the U.S. that can interpret forecasting models past their alleged technological limits and produce and accurate forecast from it.
Another hurricane forecasting rule. A tropical cyclone will begin turning NW when it get's within 10 deg. longitude of a 500 mb shortwave or longwave trough. SO we are all hoping that this NW turn occurs during the next 12-24 hours. We all also hope that Isabel stays out to sea but that looks rather unlikely.
Depending on her exact track Isabel will begin encountering 40-50 knot wind shear and colder shelf waters. This could weaken Isabel to a Cat 2 when she makes landfall somewhere in the mid Atlantic region later this week.
I lived and worked for Uncle Sam in Washington, D.C. in the 1970's and it did not take much of a weather event to cause havoc in the region. It will be interesting to watch what happens to the regional power grid if and when 100+ mph winds rip through the region. I almost relish the though of the U.S. Congress sitting in the dark for a week or so!!!
Take Care,
Thomas Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL Skywarn Spotter #HIL-249
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
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