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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Sun Sep 14 2003 - 09:54:40 EDT
In the past two days I have received 300+ emails asking that I continue to post my thoughts on Cat 5 Isabel so here I am again. Do not use my posts in lieu of official forecast sources as my posts are for educational purposes only. Isabel still has sustained winds of 160 mph with gusts to 205 mph, amazing. I said yesterday she was strengthening again but don't think I or anyone else thought she would return to a category 5 cyclone. It takes a special set of circumstances to reach a category 5 strength level. She could still be a cat 5 or at weakest a Cat 4 when she "HOPEFULLY" makes here final turn away from Florida while in the Bahama Islands in 96 hours.
Looking at the last three satellite images of Isabel, she seems to have turned back from the WNW (290 deg.) to the west (270 deg.), in line with the cloud thumb projection on her forward WSW quadrant yesterday. Right now Isabel is a near perfect circle with no bulges to give us a hint of her future track. Florida is still not totally out of the woods yet so pay attention.
I consider the turn back to the west it as one of the three course changes that I originally forecasted. I presume that the weakening 500 mb shortwave trough in the SE U.S. and the remnants of T.S. Henri are losing their influence on Isabel. The NHC is calling the course change a wobble and I certainly hope it is. Presumably the next two stronger 500 mb shortwaves?/longwaves? will turn her to a more consistent WNW then NW and hopefully a N and NE heading away from all of the U.S. during the 96-168 hour period.
I shudder to think of what would happen to central Florida if a cat 5 or 4 Isabel were to cross the central peninsula say from Fort Pierce to St. Petersburg. You would have to evacuate both coasts of millions of people, to the inland ridge area where there are not enough shelters and most structures would be destroyed anyway. It will happen one day to our 17 million and growing population.
Take Care,
Thomas Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL Skywarn Spotter #HIL-249
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
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