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From: Jesse Ferrell (WeatherMatrix) (jesse{at}weathermatrix.net)
Date: Thu Aug 14 2003 - 20:33:12 EDT

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At 12:22 AM 8/15/2003 +0000, the media wrote:

>Lightning is being blamed for the massive power outage affecting a large
>section of eastern N America.

I'm not buying it!
http://www.weathermatrix.net/2003/0814/

Looking at the official record from Vaisala Inc., I do not see any
lightning strikes
in that time period anywhere near New York State near 4pm (20:00Z).
<http://www.weathermatrix.net/2003/0814/ltg-anim-0308141800.gif>http://www.weathermatrix.net/2003/0814/ltg-anim-0308141800.gif
SOURCE: FlightBrief.com

Also the radar archive from UCAR indicates nothing but clutter and a weak
lake front at the time:
<http://www.rap.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/neilley/NIDS_archive?Radar=BUF&Composite=NONE&Start_date=20030814&Start_time=18&Duration=240&Frequency=0&Parameter=1>http://www.rap.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/neilley/NIDS_archive?Radar=BUF&Composite=NONE&Start_date=20030814&Start_time=18&Duration=240&Frequency=0&Parameter=1
In fact there were hardly any clouds over the Buffalo/Niagara area at the time!
<http://www.weathermatrix.net/2003/0814/sat.gif>http://www.weathermatrix.net/2003/0814/sat.gif

See also
<http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-8%20CONUS&lat=42.2&lon=-79.4&zoom=1&map=standard&info=vis&palette=ir.pal&mapcolor=black&quality=85&width=640&height=480&type=Animation&numframes=30>Satellite
Animation

<http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/meteo_current_obs.asp?sta=IAG&time=24&BtnMet=Plain+Language&type=metar&partner=6037>Official
weather observation from government at Niagara at 4pm: MOSTLY SUNNY

DISCLAIMERS:

- Lightning can, of course, strike out of small clouds, but the weather in
this area was not conducive to storms today.

- Canada has their own separate
<http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKR>radar and
lightning detection system but I do not have access to archives of this
data... but the U.S. weather observation near Niagara should be sufficient
and covers into Canada.

- The report from Canada could also have meant that it was damage from an
*earlier* strike that caused the blackout.

-- 
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Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist / Webmaster / Founder - WeatherMatrix
6000 Weather Enthusiasts Can't Be Wrong! www.weathermatrix.net 
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