HandheldWeather.com by WeatherMatrix
© 2002 WeatherMatrix.Net - Redistribution Prohibited. Usage logged.
HandheldWeather.com by
WeatherMatrix
© 2002 WeatherMatrix.Net - Redistribution
Prohibited. Usage logged.
From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Sat Feb 07 2004 - 17:10:53 EST
Florida Daily Weather Discussion
#2004-008 Published Saturday 02/07/2004 at 5:00 PM
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
I keep forgetting to mention this fact. January 2004 in Boston, MA was the coldest in 111 years, wow!!!
Also in January 2004 Grand Forks, ND saw its coldest minimum temperature ever recorded at -44 deg. below zero F, same with Fallon, MN with -50 deg. below zero F. And some small town in northern Saskatchewan Canada set a record with -62 deg. below zero F and some small town in the Siberian Russia region of Kemerovo saw -93 deg. below zero F. By the way the record of -94 deg. below zero F was set WAY BACK IN January 2001.
Other weird weather in the winter of 2003-2004 saw people freezing to death in India and a maximum temperature of only 53 deg. in Hanoi Vietnam, with 40's just to the north.
More proof of global warming, NOT!!!
Now on to Florida.
Though yesterday I posted an outlook update approximately 12 hours in advance of arrival of the incoming storm system, concerning it being weaker then I first forecasted, I still consider my outlook to be wrong. That still leaves my accuracy rate at around 99% during the past 365 days.
Normally I forecast by looking upstream at incoming weather systems, use persistence and teleconnections and least of all numerical forecast models. Well this time I placed to much stock in the ETA model, that was by the way verifying as of yesterday morning at 7:00 am EST. It can be very tough to forecast the intensity of a subtropical jet stream latitude extra-tropical winter storm when the SOI has already flipped back to a colder and drier mode.
By the way the official Plant City climatologically weather station just up the street from me with a similar suburban exposure, had a maximum temperature yesterday of 85 deg. versus my 86 deg. So officially that ties a maximum temperature record instead of setting a new one.
In any event we have seen the 24 hour 30 deg. temperature drop that I mentioned yesterday. At 5:00 pm yesterday the temperature here in suburban SW Plant City was still a very warm 86 deg., today it's 56 deg. and falling! Today's maximum temperature of 70 deg. occurred at local midnight. This morning's minimum temperature was 60 deg. at sunrise and the afternoon maximum temperature which occurred at 12:00 noon was also 60 deg.
As I mentioned a few days ago tonight will be another cold one, one of many this winter in the "Bikini State". I expect to see the subfreezing line down to approximately S.R. 54 west of U.S. 27 on a dry 10-15 mile per hour north wind. A subfreezing wind chill factor should occur deep into SW Florida by Sunday morning 02/08/04. Monday morning will also be cold but then we see another big warm up again to near 80 deg. by Tuesday 02/10/04. Models are once again calling for a big and this time prolonged rainfall event between Tuesday-Friday 02/10-13/04. BUT with the SOI in a colder and drier mode I'm not biting again. We will watch it closely though. Cooler weather also returns again by Saturday 02/14/04.
I still have concerns for the arrival of the coldest weather of the season in peninsula Florida sometime during the last two week period of February 2004. It could be significant cold BUT not of Arctic origin. With the high pressure thumb block now gone east of the Caspian Sea region of Kazakhstan there is no chance for cross polar flow of Siberian Arctic air into North America for the foreseeable future.
Many do not realize it but we just missed an epic historic freeze in Florida this winter. I'm talking "maximum" temperatures in the upper teens to low 20's north, mid to upper 20's central and 30's and 40's south, like in February 1899, January 1940, December 1962, January 1966, January 1977, January 1985 and December 1989.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
SKYWARN Observer HIL-249
SWFWMD Observer #574
Plant City, FL, USA
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
--- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.580 / Virus Database: 367 - Release Date: 2/6/2004[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
==================================================================== StormReports Email List -- TO UNSUBSCRIBE, EMAIL A BLANK MESSAGE TO: stormreports-unsubscribe{at}wxmatrix-membersonly ; For Options Including 1 Per Day, Temporary Suspending, And More, Visit This Web Address: http://wxmatrix-membersonly/group/stormreports/join THESE REPORTS ARE MADE PUBLIC ON THE WEATHERMATRIX.NET WEBSITE! Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://wxmatrix-membersonly/group/stormreports/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: stormreports-unsubscribe{at}wxmatrix-membersonly
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
Thank you for using HandheldWeather.com's Handheld / PDA / Palm Content