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WeatherMatrix
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From: Mike Reddin (mreddin{at}nii.net)
Date: Sun Sep 01 2002 - 18:42:00 EDT
I've been watching this all day long, the absence is any
decent convection is the only thing keeping this from
depression status, but it is [confirmed by Recon] to be
a closed circulation at 1014mb, 21 knots was the best flight
level wind at 2,500' I saw from the reports. There is good
outflow, it approaching the Gulf Stream which is already running
above its normal climatological high temperature, but without
any good convection its development will be questionable.However,
the last few Visible frames show it may be rallying.
Keep in mind this appears to be a tight, small system and as
many of you know these can develop quite quickly with
little lead time.
I'm hoping one of you can help me. I am seeking the text
[generic] output for the BAMx, LBAR, GFDL and SHIPS
guidance. After doing a google search all I found were a
parade of broken, defunct and otherwise unavailable links.
This data used to be readily available, the only place I
can find some very token data [storm specific] is hurricaneally.com.
The NHC always runs these series of models against incipient
systems they are developing such as the disturbance at
27N/76W, they typically do this for even systems that have
not developed a closed circulation yet to get an idea what
may happen if it does. Needless to say this is a mission
critical set of tools.
The ETA/AVN barely see the system, I desperately want to see
the raw output for this system to get some idea on likely
tracks and landfall strength. If anyone can provide some
working links [please check them first, you'll be surprised
how many big name college sites are down or otherwise
unavailable right now].
Thanks!
Mike
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