The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For April 20, 2001
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
------------------------------------------------------------
=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column-
=> Sponsored by The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article National Drought Summary -- April 17, 2001
=> Article Federal Disaster Aid Ordered For Mississippi Floods
=> Article Federal Funds Authorized For Myakka Complex Fire
=> Article Scientists Suggest New Index to Capture "Flavors" of El Niño
=> Article Earthquake Research Reveals New Information***
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
------------------------------------------------------------
Sponsored by the The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
http://www.disastercenter.com/Rothstein/
------------------------------------------------------------
=> Subscribe/Unsubscribe information
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For April 20, 2001
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
------------------------------------------------------------
=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Thu...98 At Presidio TX
Low Fri...12 At Berlin NH
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings are no longer being provided to see current warning please
go to:
U.S. National Weather Service's Active Warning's page
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/graphicsversion/bigmain.html
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Moderate
There is a 2% probability of a tornado from central southwest through north
central Texas,
Oklahoma except the southeast 1/4 and the panhandle, Kansas except the west
southwest area, extreme northwest Colorado, Nebraska except the northwest
area, south southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota, the central and
southwest 1/2 of Wisconsin, the northwest 1/3 of Illinois, the northwest 1/2
of Missouri, and Iowa.
The 5% probability area covers extreme central north Oklahoma, Kansas except
the western and
southeast areas, the
southeast 3/4 of Nebraska, the extreme southeast part of South Dakota,
extreme south Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, extreme northwest Illinois,
north northwest Missouri, and Iowa
The 15% probability area covers central north through northeast Nebraska,
the southwest 1/3 of
Iowa, and extreme southwest South Dakota.
Hail Risk - Severe
The 10% probability for hail 2 inches or large covers east northeast
Nebraska, and central through
western Iowa.
There is a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger over north central
California. Also over central through central north Texas, Oklahoma except
the southeast and western areas, Kansas except the southwest 1/4, extreme
north northwest Colorado, extreme east southeast Wyoming, Nebraska, the
south southeast 3/4 of
South Dakota, the
southern 3/5 of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan except the eastern and
northeast areas, northwest Indiana, Illinois except the southeast 1/4
Missouri except the southeast 1/4, and Iowa.
The 15% probability area covers central north Oklahoma, the eastern 1/2 of
Kansas and the central north areas, Nebraska except the extreme western
area, the south southeast 1/3 of South Dakota, the southern 1/3 of
Minnesota, Wisconsin except the north northeast area, the northwest 1/2 of
Illinois, the northwest 1/2 of Missouri, and Iowa.
The 25% probability area covers, Nebraska except the western and south
southwest areas, the
south southeast 1/4 of South Dakota, far south
Minnesota, far west southwest Wisconsin, Illinois, extreme
north northwest Missouri, and Iowa except the far southeast area.
The 35% probability area covers central north through northeast Nebraska,
west central, central
west and northwest Iowa, and the northwest 1/3 of Iowa.
Wind Risk - Moderate
There is a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger over far east northeast
Utah, far northwest
Colorado, far central south Wyoming. Also central through
central north Texas, Oklahoma except the southeast and western areas, Kansas
except the southwest 1/4, extreme northwest Colorado, Nebraska except the
northwest area, the south southeast 1/4 of South Dakota, the southern 1/3
of Minnesota, Wisconsin except the far northern area, western Michigan,
far northwest Indiana, Illinois except the southeast 1/4, Missouri except
the
southeast 1/4, and Iowa.
The 15% probability area covers central north Oklahoma, the eastern 1/2 of
Kansas and the central north areas, Nebraska except the western area,
south southeast South Dakota, far southern Minnesota, central and southern
Wisconsin, the
northwest 1/3 of Illinois, the northwest 2/5 of Missouri,
and Iowa..
The 25% probability area covers the central north and the northeast 1/4 of
Nebraska, extreme
southeast South Dakota, extreme south southeast Minnesota, extreme west
southwest Wisconsin, extreme northwest Illinois, far northern Missouri, and
Iowa.
Tomorrow's Risk - Moderate
There is 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow over west central
through central north
Texas, Oklahoma except the southeast 1/4 and the extreme western area,
Kansas except the north
northwest area, Missouri except the extreme southeast and extreme northwest
areas, the eastern 1/2
of Iowa, far eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, far northeast Ohio,
Indiana except the far
northeast area, and Illinois except the extreme southeast area.
The 15% probability area covers central north Texas, Oklahoma except the
southeast 1/3 and the
far western area, the south southeast 1/3 of Kansas, Missouri except the far
southeast and far
northeast areas, far eastern Iowa, Wisconsin except the northwest 1/3,
Michigan except the extreme
northwest and extreme southeast areas, extreme northwest Ohio, the northwest
1/2 of Indiana, and
Illinois except the far southeastern areas,
Day Three's Risk - Severe
The 5% probability area covers from central south through central north and
north northeast Texas,
Oklahoma except the extreme western area, Kansas except the extreme western
area, the south
southeast 1/3 of Nebraska, Iowa except the north northwest 1/3, extreme
south Wisconsin, Illinois
except the the far southeast area, Missouri except the far southeast area,
and the northwest 2/5 of
Arkansas.
The 15% probability area covers central through central north Texas,
Oklahoma except the far
southeast and far western areas, Kansas except the western area, extreme
southeast Nebraska, the
west northwest 1/3 of Missouri, and extreme northwest Arkansas.
The 25% probability area covers central north Texas, Oklahoma except the
eastern and western
areas, and central south Kansas.
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast
Is calling for less than an inch of rainfall.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94e.gif
Excessive Rainfall Forecast - Today
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/93s.gif
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
>From noon to midnight today EST
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/93s.gif
>From midnight to noon tomorrow EST
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94s.gif
Current USA Snow and Ice Cover
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/us_NESDISsnow.gif
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
10:35 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2001
FLOOD SUMMARY
MAJOR FLOODING PERSISTS IN NORTHERN PLAINS
MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI.
THE CREST HAS PASSED LA CROSSE, WI, BUT RAIN ANTICIPATED THIS
WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED CREST AND KEEP WATER LEVELS
HIGH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE JAMES RIVER IN SOUTH DAKOTA ALSO CONTINUES TO HAVE MAJOR
FLOODING, WITH LEVELS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS.
OTHER RIVERS IN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN FALLING, WITH
SOME BELOW FLOOD STAGE, BUT EXPECTED RAIN COULD DRIVE THEM HIGHER.
FLASH FLOODING:
NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
RIVER FLOODING:
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER: FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM AITKEN, MN TO CHESTER, IL. MAJOR FLOODING
IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI, WITH MAJOR
FLOODING EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM TO BURLINGTON, IOWA. NEAR RECORD
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT QUAD CITIES, IA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MODERATE TO MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING WITH MAJOR TO NEAR
RECORD FLOODING EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE RIVER DOWN TO
CHESTER, ILLINOIS. HOWEVER, AT ST. LOUIS THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE FLOODING
EVEN AFTER THE RIVER HAS CRESTED, WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL STRESS
ON THE DIKES AND LEVEES, PRODUCING ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING DAMAGES.
RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH LOCATIONS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INCLUDE:
ARKANSAS: THE OUACHITA RIVER
CONNECTICUT: THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
IOWA: THE BIG SIOUX, LITTLE SIOUX, EAST FORK DES MOINES, DES
MOINES, WEST FORK DES MOINES, WAPSIPINICON, CEDAR AND IOWA
RIVERS
LOUISIANA: THE ATCHAFALAYA AND OUACHITA RIVERS; BAYOU
DORCHEAT, BAYOU BODCAU, RED CHUTE BAYOU
MINNESOTA: THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH, WILD RICE, TWO
RIVERS, BUFFALO AND WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVERS
NORTH DAKOTA: THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH, WILD RICE,
PEMBINA, SHEYENNE, SOURIS AND JAMES RIVERS
SOUTH DAKOTA: THE BIG SIOUX AND JAMES RIVERS; TURTLE AND
SNAKE CREEKS
TEXAS: THE NECHES AND SULPHUR RIVERS
WISCONSIN: THE WOLF RIVER
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
Not curerent
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2001 APR 20 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(29.0 TO 35.8 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2001 APR 19 09:02:40.00 34.7 N 118.7 W 14 km 3.2
35 miles W of Lancaster, California
Mag. 5.0 35 MILES SE OF CHIGNIK, AK
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
No reports received
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
------------------------------------------------------------
SPONSORSHIP NOTICE
THE ROTHSTEIN CATALOG ON DISASTER RECOVERY
The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery is the largest on line source of
Business Continuity, Disaster Recovery, IT Disaster Recovery, Software,
CD/Diskette Products,
Videos, Management Issues, Exercising Contingency Plans, Telecommunications,
Networks, Call
Centers, Help Desks, Crisis Management, Crisis Communications, Risk
Management, Business
Impact, Disaster Prevention, Avoidance Info, Network Security, Info
Protection, Service Levels,
Service Quality, Natural Hazards -- Earthquakes, Hurricanes.... Business
Records, Libraries,
Media, Banking, Finance, Govt Regs/Guidelines, Emergency Management,
Industrial, Terrorism,
Workplace Violence, Crime, Physical, Financial Security, and other Valuable
Resources, Tools.
http://www.disastercenter.com/Rothstein/.
--------------------------------------------------------------
**** ARTICLES ****
--------------------------------------------------------------
=> National Drought Summary -- April 17, 2001
The Southeast: An active weather pattern continued, with the heaviest
rainfall (2 to 4 inches) falling
on the central Delta and Tennessee Valley, and lesser totals across most of
the Southeast. In
Tennessee, the rains erased dryness (D0) across southern sections, and
shrank moderate drought in
western areas. In contrast, Florida (minus the Panhandle), the eastern
Carolinas, and southern
Louisiana received little or no rain, observed unseasonable warmth
(temperatures averaged 6 to
11°F above normal, highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's), and increased
evapotranspiration.
Fortunately, expansion of abnormal dryness or drought was tempered in areas
that had recorded
several consecutive cool and wet weeks (e.g. Georgia and the Carolinas), but
drought (D3 and D4)
worsened in central Florida. The second straight dry week in southern and
central Florida
contributed to further declines in Lake Okeechobee, at 9.92 feet on April
16, down from 10.25 feet
on April 3 and approaching its all-time record low of 9.75 feet on July 29,
1981, while 25% of the
44 USGS-measured river sites were at near- to record low streamflows on
April 16. NASS/USDA
reported that statewide topsoil and subsoil moisture was rated 82% and 86%
very short to short, up
from 71% and 74% a week ago, respectively. Wildfires were also of concern as
Florida, North
Carolina, and Virginia reported moderate to large burns as of Friday,
including an 8,000 acre fire in
Florida. Along the central Gulf Coast, short-term dryness returned in
response to 2 consecutive
warm and dry weeks, short-term (30-day) rainfall 25-50% of normal, 7-day
average streamflows in
the lower 25 percentile, high evapotranspiration rates, and lingering
long-term shortfalls (20-25
inches for 18 months).
The Central Appalachians, lower Ohio Valley, and northern Delta: A stalled
cold front was the focal
point for numerous thunderstorms, severe weather, and heavy rainfall (1.5-3
inches) across most of
the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, and in the north-central Appalachians.
As a result, abnormal
dryness and most short-term deficits were eliminated or significantly
reduced across the central and
eastern Corn Belt and central Appalachians. However, lesser amounts (0.1-0.6
inches) and
unseasonable warmth (weekly departures of +7 to +10°F, highs in the
mid-80's) were reported in
the northern Delta and lower Ohio Valley, maintaining or slightly expanding
the area's abnormal
dryness, and adding moderate drought to western Kentucky where 30-day
(25-50% of normal, 2 to
3 inch deficits), 90-day (50-75% of normal, 3-5 inch deficits), and 6½ month
(6 to 8 inch
deficiencies) precipitation has been subnormal.
The Plains: A second intense April storm system traversed across the central
Plains on Wednesday,
less than a week after the initial one, dumping moderate to heavy
precipitation (1-3 inches) from
northern Colorado northeastward into central Minnesota. Drought was relieved
in west-central
Nebraska and western Iowa, where year-to-date precipitation has been
150-200% and 125-150%
of normal, respectively. In extreme eastern Montana, light precipitation
(0.1-0.3 inches) followed last
week's moderate totals (0.5-1 inches), alleviating abnormal dryness. In
contrast, another hot
(weekly departures +6 to +8°F, highs in the 90's) and rainless week in
southern Texas slightly
expanded D0 and D1 northward, although widely-scattered Monday afternoon
thundershowers
dropped 0.3-1 inches, locally 2.5 inches, on parts of extreme southeastern
New Mexico and
adjacent west-central Texas.
The West: April remained cold and unsettled across much of the region.
Weekly temperatures
averaged 3 to 6°F below normal, and light precipitation (snow in higher
elevations) was reported in
the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and Rockies, with the largest totals (more than
2 inches liquid
equivalent) in northern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Compared to a week
ago (April 9),
average basin snow water content (SWC) generally increased by 5-10% points,
and season-to-date
precipitation (STDP) grew by 1-2% points. However, the National Water and
Climate Center
(WRCC) in Portland, OR, cautions that "changes in snowpack percent of
average become more
amplified and may not reflect the historic peak snowpack amount for the
season as the average snow
water equivalent declines to zero during traditional spring snowmelt. This
pattern migrates northward
from southern portions of the West as temperatures rise during the spring."
In addition, the WRCC
noted that the subnormal 2000-01 snowpack is melting at a faster rate than
normal since it does not
have the usual deep snowpack insulating properties.
Even after 2 straight weeks of "favorable weather" (cold and unsettled),
basin average SWC (on
April 16) was still between 45-60% of normal in most of Idaho, 54-64% in
Washington, 39-66% in
central Oregon, 48-51% in the northern Sierra Nevada, 61-75% in western
Montana, and 62-71%
in northwestern Wyoming. Basin average precipitation (October 1-April 16)
was generally less than
2/3rds of normal in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western portions of Montana
and Wyoming, and
northern California. As a result, changes were minimal in the West, except
for the alleviation of
D0(W) in extreme southern Wyoming, and the expansion of abnormal dryness
into northwestern
California as significant precipitation has occurred either north or south
of this region since March
(30 and 90-day precipitation 50-75% of normal).
Hawaii: Light to moderate (and locally heavy windward) showers fell on most
locations of Molokai,
Maui, and the Big Island, maintaining or easing dryness and drought on
leeward areas. On the Big
Island, welcome rains (0.75-1 inches) were measured at Upolu and Kahua Ranch
in the northwest
while 0.7-1.2 inches fell along the western coast, but more is needed before
improvement occurs.
On Maui, scattered showers dropped light to moderate totals (0.1-1.3 inches)
on leeward (western)
sections, with greater amounts (more than 2 inches) on windward
(northeastern) sites, confining D1,
D1(A,F), and D2(A,F) conditions to the western third of the island. No rain
was measured at Lanai
City, and the 0.1-0.4 inches recorded on Molokai maintained the island's
severe to extreme
drought.
Looking Ahead: April 18-22 (Day 1-5) anticipated weather that may affect dry
or drought areas is
similar to last week's "Looking Ahead" summary, namely: 1) the third in a
series of strong April
storm systems should track across the central Plains northeastward into the
upper Midwest by next
week, bringing precipitation to central Rockies, north-central Plains,
Midwest, and New England; 2)
after a brief warm-up, colder and unsettled weather (troughing) returns to
the West, with possible
snows in higher elevations of Cascades, Sierra Nevada, northern Rockies; 3)
high pressure should
keep most of the southern Plains and Southeast dry and warm, including
Florida and south Texas; 4)
drier weather should return to most of Hawaii, with scattered windward
showers.
The 6-10 day outlook (April 23-28) predicts another shift in the upper-air
pattern, producing: 5)
above-normal chances for precipitation in the southern Plains and Great
Lakes region, high
probabilities for subnormal precipitation in the Southwest, north-central
Rockies and Plains, and
near-normal precipitation elsewhere; 6) probabilities for above-normal
temperatures are greatest in
the Southwest and Southeast, with subnormal temperatures expected in the
northern Great Lakes
region and New England.
Author: David Miskus
=> Federal Disaster Aid Ordered For Mississippi Floods
Washington, April 18, 2001 -- Federal disaster aid has been made available
for Mississippi to help
families and communities recover from the effects of severe storms and
floods that hit the state earlier
this month, according to the head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency
(FEMA).
FEMA Director Joe M. Allbaugh said the assistance was authorized under a
major disaster
declaration issued for the state by President Bush. The declaration covers
damage to private and
public property from the storms and flooding that occurred over the period
of April 3-5.
Following the President's action, Allbaugh designated the counties of
Attala, Holmes and Lee eligible
for aid to stricken residents and business owners.
The assistance, to be coordinated by FEMA, can include grants to help pay
for temporary housing,
emergency home repairs and other serious disaster-related expenses.
Low-interest loans from the
U.S. Small Business Administration also will be available to cover
residential and business losses not
fully compensated by insurance.
Additionally, Allbaugh said federal funds will be provided for the state and
affected local
governments to pay 75 percent of the eligible cost for restoring damaged
public facilities in the
counties of Attala, Holmes, Leake, Lee and Neshoba. The declaration also
makes cost-shared
funding available to the state for approved projects that reduce future
disaster risks.
Allbaugh indicated that additional counties may be designated for aid later
if requested by the state
and warranted by the results of further damage assessments. He named John D.
Hannah of FEMA
to coordinate the federal relief effort.
Hannah said those who sustained losses in the counties designated for aid to
affected residents and
business owners can begin the disaster application process by calling
1-800-462-9029, or
1-800-462-7585 (TTY) for the hearing and speech impaired. The toll-free
telephone numbers will
be available starting today, April 18, from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. seven days a
week until further notice.
=> Federal Funds Authorized For Myakka Complex Fire
Washington, April 19, 2001 -- The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
has
authorized the use of federal funds to help Florida fight another outbreak
of uncontrolled wildfires
burning in the counties of Charlotte, Desoto, Hardee, Manatee and Sarasota.
According to the agency, the state's request for federal fire suppression
aid was approved last night
immediately after it was reported that the 4,000-acre Myakka Complex Fire,
consisting of four fires,
was threatening 500 homes and caused the evacuation of more than 100
residents of North Port in
Sarasota County.
The authorization is the second granted to the state this week and the fifth
for the year. Florida fires
previously designated for assistance were the Orlando Complex Fire in
Brevard, Orange and
Osceola counties (April 17); the Caloosahatchee Complex Fire in Collier,
Hendry and Lee counties
(February 19); the Okeechobee Complex Fire in Glades, Highlands, Indian
River, Martin,
Okeechobee and St. Lucie counties (February 19); and the Lakeland Complex
Fire in Hillsborough,
Pinellas and Polk counties (February 18).
Under the authorizations, FEMA is paying 70 percent of the state's eligible
firefighting costs that are
above $1,520,356. The figure, called a floor cost, is derived through a
formula based on the state's
five-year annual average cost for fighting fires.
Federal fire suppression aid is provided through the President's Disaster
Relief Fund and made
available by FEMA to assist in fighting fires when they threaten to cause a
major disaster. Eligible
state firefighting costs covered by the aid can include expenses for field
camps; equipment use, repair
and replacement; tools, materials and supplies; and mobilization and
demobilization activities.
=> Scientists Suggest New Index to Capture "Flavors" of El Niño
Just as the Federal Reserve uses more than one index to measure the health
and state of the
economy, scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
believe it is
essential to have at least two climate measures to capture all "flavors"
of El Niño.
Climate scientists have long used changes in sea surface temperatures in
specific regions of the
Pacific Ocean to characterize El Niño events. But using just that one
temperature index does not
give a complete picture of the climate phenomenon, according to scientist
Kevin Trenberth of
NCAR.
"El Niño comes in many different flavors, "said Trenberth. "Each has a
different and distinct
character. An index of average sea surface temperature variations in some
parts of the Pacific
Ocean does not allow us to differentiate between major, moderate and minor
El Niños, or between
the entire nature of the event and its evolution."
Writing in the April 15 issue of the American Meteorological Society's
Journal of Climate,
Trenberth and colleague David Stepaniak, propose a second El Niño index
called the "Trans-Niño
Index" or TNI. This new mathematical equation calculates the difference
between sea surface
temperature changes in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and those in
waters along the coast of
South America. Showing different developments across the Pacific allows
scientists to see how and
where El Niño events have developed over the last 50 years and to detect
changes that may be
occurring on a decadal time scale.
In his research Trenberth found that although El Niño events tend to be
locked to the annual cycle
and typically peak in the northern winter, the evolution of El Niño has
changed substantially. The
TNI shows that El Niño events between 1950 and 1976 tended to develop first
along the coast of
South America and then spread westward. More recent El Niño events
developed in the central
Pacific and spread eastward.
"Trenberth's and Stepaniak's study, which has resulted in an innovative
way of differentiating
between El Niños of various strengths and characters, should lead to a
better understanding of the
dynamics of El Niños--and their improved prediction," said Jay Fein,
director of the National
Science Foundation (NSF)'s climate dynamics program, which funded the
research.
"We want to explore whether we can use the relationships of temperature
variations between the
different parts of the Pacific to evaluate numerical climate models on how
well they simulate El Niño
events," added Trenberth. "Our goal is to capture that character so we can
improve confidence in
future predictions."
=> Earthquake Research Reveals New Information***
Simmillennium Project Yields Better Quake-Modeling Software Earthquake Study
Focuses On
Hospitals' Importance In Crisis My Legos Hold Up Better Than Yours
Simmillennium Project Yields Better Quake-Modeling Software
Computer scientists at the University of California, Berkeley (UCB) are
using the latest in
high-speed networking to develop new computational tools for modeling
earthquakes and other
phenomena.
The NSF-funded project, called SimMillennium, is directed by professors
David Culler and James
Demmel. They are designing a networked "testbed" in which scientists like
UCB's Gregory Fenves,
assistant director of the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research center
(PEER), can have
instantaneous access to shared data at gigabit speeds-one billion bits per
second-for creating
earthquake simulations. Intel, IBM, Microsoft, Sun and Nortel Networks have
made significant
corporate donations to the project.
The testbed's pool of inter-connected resources is a "managed as
computational economy" that
adapts automatically to changing user demand, system configuration and
component failures.
SimMillennium is leading to improved algorithms and programming environments
not only for seismic
modeling, but also for simulations in such fields as astrophysics, economics
and civil engineering.
[Tom Garritano]
For more information on SimMillenium, see: http://millennium.berkeley.edu/
For more information on
PEER, see: http://peer.berkeley.edu
=> Classified Ads
Door-to-Door CoPilot Version 2.0 GPS TravRoute
List Price:
$299.99
Our Price:
$250.99
Platform: Windows 95, Windows 98, Windows NT
Media: CD-ROM
Availability: This item usually ships within 2-3 days.
Features:
Enter the street address of your destination, and CoPilot computes the exact
route
CoPilot speaks instructions telling you where to turn--every step of the way
Gives you new directions if you miss a turn, encounter traffic, or choose
another route
Complete nationwide information on one CD that features more than 96 million
addresses
GPS receiver picks up satellite signals and uses them to pinpoint your
location on earth
Shipping: Currently, item can be shipped only within the U.S.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B00000J495/thedisastercenteA/
FREE 30 days of StormWarn by Email, Pager, PCS/GSM Phone, Business Fax at no
cost*
Sign up today and you'll receive no obligation, no commitment StormWarn . If
you find it helpful, you can then decide to continue service at very low
rates. Your account is held in strictest confidence and you won't keep
hearing from us if you decide not to keep the service. We believe in the
value of StormWarn, and we think you will too.
*Direct pages and faxes are limited to 50 bulletins during the trial period.
http://www.stormwarn.com/index.asp?a=10296
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
If you have report or notice that you think would be of interest to the
readers of the SitRep please send an email to: host{at}disastercenter.com
=> Subscribe/Unsubscribe information
The information presented here is not authoritative.
It contains preliminary and partial information reports. It is intended to serve as a general daily digest of disaster related reports. Any other use is not intended or authorized.
The Disaster Center is a partner with CASI - Central Atlantic Storm Investigators. CASI is a group of over a thousand amateur and professional meteorologists, storm spotters, and weather observers from around the world dedicated to the observation and documentation of weather events
http://www.weatherwatchers.org
The Current Report can be accessed at:
http://www.disastercenter.com/current.htm
If you wish to send a report please use our Disaster Center Situation Report Form form located at:
http://www.disastercenter.com/email/formSR.htm
To subcribe or unsubscribe to this list send an e-mail to:
sitrep-request{at}disastercenter.com
with the word
subscribe
or the word
unsubscribe
only, in the body of the message.
If you wish to contact the list owner send an e-mail to: host{at}disastercenter.com
Copyright The Disaster Center
Please feel free to to pass this e-zine along to your friends.
However we ask that keep it intact and forward it along in its entirety.
===================================================
STORMREPORTS Email List - For CASI Members Only
Set Yourself to "DIGEST" For ONE EMAIL PER DAY!
TO UNSUBSCRIBE: stormreports-unsubscribe{at}casi-internal
TO UNSUBSCRIBE, SUSPEND, CHANGE EMAIL, OR DIGEST:
http://www.casi-internal/subscribe/stormreports
RULES:
http://www.weatherwatchers.org/members/casisr.html
===================================================
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue May 01 2001 - 19:49:08 EDT
