The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For March 19, 2001
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column-
=> Sponsored by The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article More than $6.5 Million Approved in Nisqually Earthquake Disaster
Aid
=> Article Eight Additional Counties Approved For Washington Disaster
Assistance
=> Article Trustees Report Near-Term Gains For Hospital Fund, But Long-Term
Peril For
Total Medicare Program
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The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For March 19, 2001
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Sun...88 At Ft Myers And Riverside And Death Valley CA
Low Mon...Zero At Saranac Lake NY
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Mon Mar 19 11:17:55 2001
Special Marine
Florida
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...
FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH TO MELBOURNE BEACH OUT TO 60 NM.
* UNTIL NOON EST.
Non Precipitation
Montana
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY CONTINUED UNTIL
200 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON...
Winter Storm
Washington
A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES AND PASSES...
THREE TO SIX INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES.
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is a 2% probability of a tornado over Florida except the panhandle.
The 5% probability area covers north central through central Florida.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger covers from north
central Florida through
southern Florida.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots over Florida except
the panhandle.
The 5% probability area covers north central through central Florida.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow over central south
through southeast
Georgia, and Florida except the panhandle.
the 15% probability area covers Florida except the northwest 1/2 and the far
southeast areas.
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 3 inches of
precipitation over south central
through central east Alabama, and south central Georgia east to west.
Over 2 inches of precipitation is forecast over central through central east
and east southeast
Alabama, the south southwest 3/5 of Georgia, east northeast Florida, and
extreme southern South
Carolina.
Over 1 inch of precipitation is forecast over Alabama except the far west
southwest area and far
north northwest areas, Georgia except the north northeast area, far southern
South Carolina, and
Florida except the western panhandle area and the west southwest area.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 2 inches of
precipitation over far north
northwest South Carolina and far western North Carolina. Also over extreme
central east Georgia,
the southeast 1/2 of South Carolina and extreme southern North Carolina.
Over 1 inch of precipitation is forecast over the east northeast 1/2 of
Georgia, far southeastern
Tennessee, and North and South Carolina.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is expected to exceed flash flood values in isolated areas of
central, central east and
southeast Alabama, and the south southwest 2/3 of Georgia,
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
>From noon to midnight today EST the probability of 4 inches or greater of
snow is less than 20%
The probability of 1/4 inch or greater of ice accumulation is less than 20%
>From midnight to noon tomorrow EST the probability of 4 inches or greater of
snow is low over far
southwest Tennessee and far western North Carolina.
The probability of 1/4 inch or greater of ice accumulation is less than 20%
Current USA Snow and Ice Cover
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/us_NESDISsnow.gif
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
09:50 AM EST MON MAR 19 2001
FLOOD SUMMARY
FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PLAINS, SOUTH
ICE JAMS COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK CAUSED MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING ON SEVERAL RIVERS IN NEBRASKA, IOWA, ILLINOIS
AND MISSOURI; INCLUDING THE MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVERS.
MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRED OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE WHITE RIVER IN
SOUTH DAKOTA DUE TO ICE JAMS.
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON NUMEROUS RIVERS ACROSS
THE SOUTH, WITH ADDITIONAL RISES POSSIBLE FROM TODAY'S RAIN.
FLASH FLOODING:
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED DURING THE PAST WEEKEND FOR LOCATIONS INCLUDING:
GEORGIA:
FRIDAY: MORGAN COUNTY
SATURDAY: MORGAN COUNTY
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR A POSSIBLE
FAILURE OF AN EARTHEN DAM, PRITCHARD LAKE DAM NEAR
OIL MILL ROAD ABOUT 2 MILES WEST OF MADISON. THIS
WARNING EXPIRED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DAM WAS
STABILIZED.
KANSAS:
FRIDAY: SEDGEWICK COUNTY
LOUISIANA:
FRIDAY: RAPIDES PARISH
TEXAS:
SUNDAY: BURNET COUNTY
RIVER FLOODING:
RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH LOCATIONS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INCLUDE:
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER: THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
FROM LOUISIANA ILLINOIS TO CHESTER ILLINOIS, AND ALONG THE LOWER
REACHES AT RED RIVER LANDING
ALABAMA: THE TOMBIGBEE, BLACK WARRIOR AND ALABAMA RIVERS
ARKANSAS: THE OUACHITA, WHITE AND CACHE RIVERS
FLORIDA: THE OCHLOCKONEE, APALACHICOLA, CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND
WITHLACHOOCHEE RIVERS
GEORGIA: THE ALTAMAHA, WITHLACHOOCHEE, OGEECHEE AND OHOOPEE
RIVERS
ILLINOIS: THE ILLINOIS RIVER
IOWA: THE NORTH RACCOON, DES MOINES, SKUNK, WAPSIPINICON AND
IOWA RIVERS
LOUISIANA: THE ATCHAFALAYA, PEARL, LOWER PEARL, RED,
CALCASIEU, LITTLE, OUACHITA AND BOEUF RIVERS; BAYOU BODCAU
AND DORCHEAT, RED CHUTE BAYOU, LAKE BISTINEAU, CADDO LAKE
MISSISSIPPI: THE PASCAGOULA, TALLAHATCHIE, BUTTAHATCHIE,
UPPER AND MIDDLE PEARL, YOCKANOOKANY, YAZOO, YALOBUSHA, BIG
BLACK, LEAF AND CHICKASAWHAY RIVERS
MISSOURI: THE MISSOURI, GRAND, SOUTH GRAND, MISSISSIPPI,
OSAGE, LITTLE OSAGE AND MERAMEC RIVERS
NEBRASKA: THE LOUP RIVER
NORTH DAKOTA: THE SOURIS AND MISSOURI RIVER (ICE AFFECTED)
SOUTH CAROLINA: THE EDISTO RIVER
SOUTH DAKOTA: THE WHITE RIVER
MAJOR ICE JAM FLOODING REPORTED OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG
THE WHITE RIVER
TEXAS: THE TRINITY, GUADALUPE, SABINE, NECHES, SULPHUR,
ANGELINA AND SOUTH SULPHUR RIVERS; BLACK CYPRESS AND ATTOYAC
BAYOUS, LITTLE CYPRESS CREEK
WISCONSIN: THE FOX RIVER
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT
FRIDAY, MARCH 16, 2001 - 1000 MST
NATIONAL PREPARDNESS LEVEL 1
CURRENT SITUATION:
New large fire activity was reported in the Eastern and Southern Areas.
All large fires were contained in the Eastern Area and nine large fires
reached containment in the Southern Area. Moderate initial attack activity
continues in the Southern Area with the Eastern Area being light. Most of
the Southeast will have cloudy skies with rain showers expected from
Tennessee over to North Carolina. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected for central Florida as well.
SOUTHERN AREA LARGE FIRES:
JOE JR., Florida Division of Forestry. This fire is near Lakeport, FL.
Crews continue with mop up.
GERTIE BROWN, St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge. The fire is near
Sopchoppy, FL. Mop up continues and fire activity is low.
SOPCHOPPY, Florida Division of Forestry. This fire is near Sopchoppy, FL.
No new information received.
DALLUS CREEK, Florida Division of Forestry. This fire is near Perry, FL.
Crews continue with mop up.
RED BEACH, Florida Division of Forestry. This fire is in Highlands County,
FL. Mop up is continuing.
MULTI COMMAND, Florida Division of Forestry. This fire is in Dade County,
FL. Crews are continuing with mop up.
SUMMERSET COMMAND, Florida Division of Forestry. This fire is in Martin
County, FL. No new information received.
OUTLOOK:
The Southeast can expect a chance of showers from Tennessee to North
Carolina today, with only
partly cloudy skies south. A cold front moving through Central Florida will
produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms from Daytona Beach to Miami. Arkansas, Louisiana
and Alabama will
have high temperatures in the mid 50's to mid 60's, eastward the high
temperatures will reach the
upper 60's to 70's, while Southern Florida will see high temperatures in the
80's.
Low pressure continues to sit off the Northwestern coastline producing rain
showers over
Washington and western Oregon. A trough that moved inland yesterday will
develop low pressure
over the Four Corners region, producing rain showers from southwestern Utah
to Denver and
snowfall over Aspen and Salt Lake City. The desert Southwest will have
cloudy skies. High
temperatures will reach the 40's across eastern Washington and Montana down
through Nevada,
Utah and Colorado. The coast will reach high temperatures in the 50's, with
California, Arizona and
New Mexico in the low 50's to low 60's. Low pressure in the east will
continue to push
precipitation across the upper Midwest today. High pressure moving towards
South Dakota will
help clear skies over the Plains States. Kansas, Southern Missouri and most
of the Ohio River
Valley will have high temperatures in the mid 40's to low 50's. Oklahoma and
northern Texas will
have high temperatures in the 50's, while central and southern Texas will
have high temperatures in
the 60's and 70's.
A low pressure system over Maryland will produce rain over the Virginia's
northward as it moves
out over the Atlantic later in the day. The extreme Northeast will be
variably cloudy and remain dry.
High temperatures will be in the 30's along the Canadian border, 40's from
Pennsylvania to central
Maine and low 50's to low 60's in the Virginia's, Washington D.C. and
Delaware.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2001 MAR 19 at 00:15 UTC
NO EVENTS
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
No reports received
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
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**** ARTICLES ****
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=> More than $6.5 Million Approved in Nisqually Earthquake Disaster Aid
Seattle, WA, March 16, 2001 -- Federal and state agencies have approved more
than $6.5 million
in aid to help Washington residents following the Nisqually earthquake.
The following is a summary of ongoing response and recovery efforts since
the Presidential disaster
declaration on March 1.
During the 15 days since the disaster declaration, $6,568,000 in aid has
been approved for disaster
rental assistance and minimal repair grants.
The number of applications made for disaster assistance through FEMA's
toll-free registration line
totaled 9,273 at the close of business, Thursday, March 15. State and
federal officials continue to
urge disaster victims to call the registration number at 1-800-462-9029 or
TTY 1-800-462-7585.
Inspectors have completed 5,998 residential inspections in the declared
counties.
To date, eight Washington counties have been declared federal disaster
areas. The counties of King,
Kitsap, Lewis, Mason, Pierce and Thurston are eligible for Public and
Individual Assistance. Grays
Harbor and Snohomish counties are eligible for Individual Assistance.
For the designated counties the total number applicants and assistance
approved to date are:
Grays Harbor-207 applicants; $214,000 approved.
King-4,313 applicants; $3,093,000 approved.
Kitsap-703 applicants; $563,000 approved.
Lewis-323 applicants; $351,000 approved.
Mason-178 applicants; $138,000 approved.
Pierce-1,579 applicants; $1,081,000 approved.
Snohomish-417 applicants; $113,000 approved.
Thurston-1,474 applicants; $1,015,000 approved.
FEMA disaster assistance covers basic needs only and will not normally
compensate individuals for
their entire loss. Persons covered by insurance may receive assistance from
the government for areas
not covered by the insurance. Some disaster aid does not have to be paid
back, while other types of
help may come in the form of loans (from the U.S. Small Business
Administration). FEMA
representatives will explain the process when persons call for assistance.
Low-interest loans from the U.S. Small Business Administration are available
to homeowners,
renters and businesses of all sizes to cover private property damage that is
not fully compensated by
insurance or other sources. Disaster loans from SBA are the primary source
of funds for repairing
earthquake damage.
=> Eight Additional Counties Approved For Washington Disaster Assistance
Washington, March 16, 2001 -- Washington State and Federal Emergency
Management Agency
(FEMA) officials announced today at the disaster field office in Qlympia
that eight additional counties
have been added to the federal disaster declaration for the 6.8 magnitude
earthquake that struck
Western Washington on Feb. 28.
The new counties are: Cowlitz, Island, Jefferson, Pacific, Skagit, Skamania,
Wahkiakum and
Yakima. The addition of these counties makes a total of 16 counties in the
disaster area, joining
Grays Harbor, King, Kitsap, Lewis, Mason, Pierce, Snohomish, and Thurston.
The addition of these eight counties makes individuals eligible for disaster
relief programs available
under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act.
The programs provide
grants for temporary housing from FEMA, and low interest loans from the U.S.
Small Business
Administration (SBA) for affected homeowners, renters and businesses of all
sizes.
Grays Harbor County (already designated for Individual Assistance) and
Skagit County are also
designated for Public Assistance. All counties in the State of Washington
were previously designated
for Hazard Mitigation assistance.
To register for disaster assistance, individuals need to call the toll-free
number, 1-800-462-9029.
Hearing or speech-impaired persons may call TTY 1-800-462-7585.
=> Trustees Report Near-Term Gains For Hospital Fund, But Long-Term Peril
For
Total Medicare Program
Near-term HI Improvements Help Provide "Window of Opportunity" for Reform
The Medicare trustees today delivered their annual reports on the fiscal
health of the Medicare trust
funds, finding that long-term trends are leading toward a much larger gap
than previously projected
between revenues and spending for Medicare. While near-term solvency of the
Hospital Insurance
trust fund gained four years in today's estimate, long-term trends point to
a dramatic revenue shortfall
for the hospital fund, plus mounting costs in the Supplementary Medical
Insurance trust fund that
would mean steeply higher federal funding, beneficiary premiums and
beneficiary co-pays. The
trustees called for changes "at the earliest possible opportunity" to
address the long-term problems.
"Unless we modernize and strengthen Medicare, the long-term prognosis for
this program is not
good," said HHS Secretary Tommy G. Thompson. "The near-term extension in the
solvency of the
hospital fund is welcome, but we must not mistake it for a clean bill of
health. Rather, it is a window
of opportunity for us to modernize, improve and protect Medicare. We must
take this opportunity
now, because every year of delay will narrow our options and make the job
more difficult."
Hospital Insurance Trust Fund (HI)
The trustees estimate that the Hospital Insurance trust fund will remain
solvent until the year 2029,
based on the most probable economic and demographic assumptions. This
projected depletion date
represents a four-year gain for estimated Part A solvency, from the forecast
of 2025 made by the
trustees last year. The trustees credited the combination of the recent
robust economy, reduced
utilization of skilled nursing services, and improved payment accuracy.
At the same time, the trustees reported that long-term projections of the
fiscal health of the HI fund
have worsened, with the gap between trust fund spending and revenues growing
by 63 percent from
last year's estimate. As in previous years, the shortfall occurs in part
because of the growing number
of Medicare beneficiaries. Today, there are about 4 workers for every
Medicare beneficiary. By
2075, there will be only about two workers for every beneficiary.
In addition, this year's report includes more realistic assumptions about
health care cost growth in
future years. Previously, estimates were based on the assumption that
expenditures per beneficiary
would increase at roughly the same rate as per capita GDP. Based on the
recommendation last year
by the 2000 Medicare Technical Review Panel, the trustees have raised this
growth assumption to
the increase in per capita GDP plus 1 percentage point. This more refined
assessment of future
costs, including improved treatments and technology, is the primary cause of
the higher long-term
cost estimates this year for both Medicare trust funds.
Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund (SMI)
As in previous years, the trustees find that the Supplementary Medical
Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund
(covering Part B of Medicare, which pays for physicians' services,
outpatient care and other medical
services) remains adequately financed into the future. This projection
reflects the different financing
mechanism for SMI. While the hospital trust fund relies on income from the
Medicare payroll tax
(1.45 percent each on employees and employers), Part B funding comes from
general revenues and
premiums paid by beneficiaries, and is adjusted annually to meet costs. This
automatic financing
mechanism provides guaranteed Part B funding. However, Part B spending is
experiencing rapid
growth -- 10 percent last year alone. The increases were due to transfer of
an additional part of
home health costs from the HI trust fund to SMI, the cost of new health
screening benefits enacted in
1997 and 1999, and an above-average increase in physician fees.
The trustees noted that Part B's automatic financing mechanism has diverted
attention from the rapid
growth in SMI costs. Over time, SMI will require a rapidly growing share of
general revenues and
substantial increases in beneficiary premiums. SMI general revenues
accounted for about 5 percent
of total Federal income taxes in 2000. If such taxes remain at their current
level relative to the
national economy, then SMI general revenues will account for about 22
percent of total income
taxes in 70 years.
Rising Part B costs also have direct impact on Medicare beneficiaries. In
the next 20 years, the
typical 65-year-old would see the portion of their Social Security check
that is withheld to pay the
monthly Part B premium almost double, from 6 percent to 11 percent of their
Social Security check.
Their total out-of-pocket expenses for Part B services (premiums plus
copayments) would increase
from 14 percent to 21 percent of their Social Security check.
Combined Medicare Trust Funds
"When we look at the fiscal health of Medicare, we must not confine
ourselves to the hospital trust
fund alone - we must look at the whole Medicare program," Secretary Thompson
said. "We need
reform and modernization for all of Medicare. That must include the addition
of a prescription drug
benefit, plus the reforms needed to support an improved program."
Taken together, Part A and Part B total costs are projected to nearly
quadruple over the next 75
years - growing from 2.2 percent of gross domestic product today, to 4.5
percent in 2030, and to
8.5 percent in 2075. At the same time, total trust fund revenues (excluding
interest) will grow much
more slowly - from 2.4 percent of GDP today, to 3.7 percent in 2030, and to
just 5.3 percent in
2075. In 2075, the gap between Medicare revenue and Medicare spending would
be the equivalent
of more than 3 percent of gross domestic product.
Without changes in the Medicare program, closing the projected HI gap
between revenues and
expenditures would require that benefits be reduced by 37 percent, or income
from the payroll tax
would need to be increased by 60 percent, the report said.
Change is needed to avoid such choices, Secretary Thompson said. "This
program, designed in the
1960s, was based on the model of health care coverage that worked then.
Nearly two generations
later, it is time to think creatively and productively about new approaches.
"We have the time and the means to modernize and improve Medicare. This
report tells us that we
must," he said.
The Medicare trustees are Treasury Secretary and Managing Trustee Paul
O'Neill, Secretary of
Health and Human Services Tommy G. Thompson, Labor Secretary Elaine Chao and
Social
Security Acting Commissioner William Halter. Two other members, the public
trustees, are
appointed by the President with Senate confirmation. The public trustees are
John Palmer and
Thomas Saving. They serve four-year terms and represent the general public.
Michael McMullan,
acting deputy administrator of the Health Care Financing Administration,
serves as secretary to the
board of trustees.
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