Here in Plant City on Thursday 12/28/00 I measured 1.01" of much needed
rainfall, bringing the December total to above normal. Rainfall totals
exceeded 2.00" at some locations across the state. The barometric pressure
bottomed out at 29.68", falling from 30.24" before the cold front and
surface low. Post frontal winds surpassed 40 mph along the coast and 30 mph
inland overnight.
As previously discussed on our website at http://giellaweather.tripod.com,
we are still on schedule for a couple of significant freeze events statewide
Sunday 12/31/00 through Wednesday 01/03/01. As they appear to be advection
events (wind), normally warmer sheltered spots will be not be favored and
cold weather protective sprinking for agriculture interests will be
difficult.
As follows are forecast discussion excerpts from NWS Tampa Bay and
Melbourne, who are always chasing my forecasts by days.
-----
NWS Tampa Bay-
THIS AIR MASS IS VERY COLD...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE GULF RESULTING
FROM THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP THE
AIR MODERATED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LEVY COUNTY MAY NEED A FREEZE
WARNING FOR TONIGHT...I WILL LEAVE THIS TO THE DAY SHIFT AFTER THEY GET
A LOOK AT THE 12 MODEL RUNS. FOR SUNDAY MORNING...THE FORECAST GETS A
BIT TRICKIER...FOR PART OF THE AREA... LEVY COUNTY YOU CAN MAKE A FREEZE
WARNING CALL WITH YOUR BRAIN TIED BEHIND YOUR BACK. VERY COLD AIR MAKES
ITS WAY DOWN THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS VEER
AROUND TO NORTHERLY DRAINING RIGHT DOWN THE SPINE OF THE STATE. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE WELL INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND IT WILL
BE AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THE ONE THING THAT COULD HELP TO SAVE
VEGETATION AT LEAST ALONG THE COAST IS THAT WINDS AS LOW AS 925MB REMAIN
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER. THE CURRENT
RUNNING FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE AND I AM NOT GOING TO CHANGE
IT MUCH EXCEPT TO BREAK OUT SOUTHWEST COASTAL COUNTIES TO GO JUST A HAIR
HIGHER ON TEMPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
HATS OFF TO THE MLB FORECASTER FOR CORRECTLY POINTING OUT THAT THE NEW
MRF WOULD COME IN MUCH COLDER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. I DONT PLAN
MUCH CHANGE RIGHT NOW FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST JUST A LITTLE TWEAKING
HERE AND THERE. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ALREADY GONE MUCH COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE SO TWEAKING IS ALL THAT IS NEEDED.
-----
NWS Melbourne-
SAT/SAT NIGHT...TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN THE ARCTIC
CENTER HIGH OVER TX AND THE BOMBING 'NOREASTER AS POTENT H50 TROUGH GOES
NEG TILT OVER THE NE U.S. THIS SPELLS ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD/ BREEZY WX
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS LIMITED TO GOMEX STRATO-CU MAKING IT FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR. WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES ALL AREAS FOR
NOW. THROUGH 00Z SUN THE ETA PUSHES THE H85 0C LINE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
INTO DADE/COLLIER BEFORE BRINGING IT BACK NORTH A BIT BY 12Z. GIVEN THE
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY AND STRENGTH OF CAA...ONE HAS TO FIGURE TEMPS BEING
HARD PRESSED TO REACH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VALUES. AS SUCH...WILL UNDERCUT
THE COLDER MAV NUMBERS BY A LITTLE. SAT NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
REPEAT OF THE ADVECTION FREEZE OF LAST WEEK. IF MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THE WARM BIAS THAT IT HAD DURING THE LAST EVENT...THEN WE ARE LIKELY IN
FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH A FREEZE FOR ALMOST
EVERYONE SUNDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED.
EXTENDED...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. SUN/SUN NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE THE COOL/COLD CONDS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM H50 TROUGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND AMPLIFIES
OFFSHORE DELMARVA TUE/WED. THIS SENDS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
BONE-CHILLING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THE MEX TEMPS FROM
00Z THU SEEMED WARM TO ME AND I HAD TO UNDERCUT THEM. HOWEVER FROM WHAT
I SEE IN THE AVN H85 TEMPS FOR 00Z WED UNLESS THE MEX COMES IN
COLDER...IN FACT QUITE A BIT COLDER...MAY NEED TO DO SOME SERIOUS
LOW-BALLING OF THE NUMBERS AS THIS COLD SHOT LOOKS EVERY BIT AS POTENT
AS THE ONE UPCOMING FOR SAT/SUN.
Happy New Year,
Thomas F. Giella
P.O. Box 1987
Plant City, Fl. 33564
Email: tgiellaweather{at}hotmail.com
Phone: 813-764-9555
Fax: 813-764-8468
Thomas Giella Weather Forecasting And Consulting Services:
http://giellaweather.tripod.com
Plant City Fl. Area Business Links:
http://kn4lf.tripod.com/index-15.html
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