The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For December 20, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column - OCHA Situation Report No. 2 Mexico - Volcano
=> Sponsored by The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article National Weather Service Day 3-10 U.S. Threats
=> Article Cerro Grande Fire Assistance Program Weekly Update
=> Article Divisive Election Will Benefit Both Parties
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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Sponsored by the The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
http://www.disastercenter.com/Rothstein/
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=> Subscribe/Unsubscribe information
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For December 20, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Tue...82 At Chatsworth CA
Low Wed...17 Below Zero At Pellston MI
=> Special Notes
The SitRep was not sent yesterday and was sent today at 2:45 PM EST
The SPC server is down
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Wed Dec 20 14:18:48 2000
Non Precipitation
Alabama
A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
Colorado
STRONG NORTH WINDS TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION TODAY...
.A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
Florida
MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
MOST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND
Georgia
FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
MOST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Kansas
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
Massachusetts
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OUTER PART OF CAPE COD...
Missouri
WIND CHILL WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...
North Dakota
...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...
Nebraska
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
South Dakota
ANOTHER FRONT ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER IS POISED TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY NOON. THIS
SECONDARY FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND
BECOME VERY GUSTY.
Texas
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...
.DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS IS CREATING STRONG SOUTH
WINDS OVER ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
Winter Storm
Alabama
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR PARTS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTH ALABAMA...
AREAS OF SLEET AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP...OR MOVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CENTRAL ALABAMA...
A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR
MOVE OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
Colorado
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE COLORADO NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
Florida
SCATTERED FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
Iowa
A MODERATELY STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING.
Illinois
Indiana
Kentucky
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE STORM WILL SWEEP INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF AN INCH OR
TWO ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
Kansas
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
Maine
...STORM WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
MID-COAST AREA WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL
BETWEEN 10 AM AND WHEN THE SNOW ENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
Michigan
...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR DELTA AND
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...
...HEAVY SNOW WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
.A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
UPPER MICHIGAN...
Minnesota
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND
DRIFTING
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
Missouri
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
Mississippi
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...
Montana
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY...
THE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
BLOWING SNOW TODAY. LOOK FOR POOR VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
North Dakota
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...
BLIZZARD WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
Nebraska
STRONG WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES AGAIN HEADED FOR THE
REGION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
New York
LAKE SNOWS CONTINUING...
OFF LAKE ERIE THE LAKE SNOWS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE LAKE SNOWS WILL BE MAINLY FROM ROCHESTER
EAST INTO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH UP TO 6 MORE INCHES IN MORE PERSISTENT
SNOW BANDS.
South Dakota
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE FROM 20
TO 40 MILES AN HOUR USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR.
Tennessee
WINTER WEATHER ON THE WAY...
.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA WILL TRACK ALONG THE
GULF COAST TONIGHT AND BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
Wisconsin
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS MINNESOTA TODAY...AND ENTER WISCONSIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SNOWFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING.
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The SPC server is down
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast is calling for less than 1 inch of
precipitation.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 1 inch of
precipitation over northeast
Washington, northeast and southeast coastal Oregon, and far northeast
coastal California.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood values.
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
>From noon to midnight today EST the probability of 2 inches or greater of
snow is low over west
central and western Tennessee, far northeast Mississippi, and far northwest
Alabama.
>From noon to midnight today EST the probability of 4 inches or greater of
snow is low over
northeast Illinois, eastern Wisconsin, northwestern Indiana, the western
northwest 1/3 of Michigan
including the northern peninsula and far northeast Minnesota.
The moderate probability area is over the north central portion of
Michigan's northern peninsula and
far west northwest Michigan.
The probability of 1/4 inch or greater of ice accumulation is low over the
northwest 1/3 of
Mississippi, far south southwest Tennessee and northwest Alabama.
The moderate probability area is over portions of northeast Mississippi.
>From midnight to noon tomorrow EST the probability of 2 inches or greater of
snow is low over far
western Tennessee, the southeast 1/4 of Tennessee, far northwest Alabama,
northern Georgia, far
northwest South Carolina.
>From midnight to noon tomorrow EST the probability of 4 inches or greater of
snow is low over the
far northwestern portion of Michigan's peninsula.
The probability of 1/4 inch or greater of ice accumulation is low over far
central east Mississippi, far
central west through central east Alabama, and the northwest 1/3 of Georgia
except the far northern
area.
The moderate probability area is over central to central east Alabama, and
central west Georgia.
Current USA Snow and Ice Cover
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/us_NESDISsnow.gif
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
0745 AM EST WED DEC 20 2000
FLOOD SUMMARY
FLOODING WANES
MINOR RESIDUAL FLOODING CONTINUES ON A FEW RIVERS IN ARKANSAS,
MISSISSIPPI, INDIANA, OHIO AND CONNECTICUT.
FLASH FLOODING:
NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED OVER THE LAST DAY.
RIVER FLOODING:
SEVERAL LOCATIONS, INCLUDING MOUNT VERNON, INDIANA, AND
SHAWNEETOWN, ILLINOIS, ON THE OHIO RIVER WILL SEE MINOR FLOODING
THIS WEEK.
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH LOCATIONS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
OR EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INCLUDE:
ARKANSAS: THE CACHE RIVER
CONNECTICUT: THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
INDIANA: THE EAST FORK OF THE WHITE AND THE WHITE RIVERS
MISSISSIPPI: THE BIG BLACK RIVER
OHIO: THE MUSKINGUM RIVER
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
The USA Fire Report and Forecast has not been updated.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 DEC 20 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(29.0 TO 35.8 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 DEC 18 18:43:45.00 35.3 N 119.4 W 6 km 2.8
25 miles W of Bakersfield, California
2000 DEC 18 18:42:17.00 35.3 N 119.4 W 6 km 2.9
25 miles WSW of Bakersfield, California
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column -- OCHA Situation Report No. 2 Mexico - Volcano
Popocatepetl - increasing volcanic activity
20 December 2000
(source: www.bbc.co.uk)
Summary of most recent activities
1. On 19 December 2000, the volcano Popocatepetl spouted showers of
incandescent rock without any flow of lava. The authorities are
considering extending the danger zone from 15 to 24 km around the volcano.
There is concern about the glacier beside the volcano that could break
apart and cause a landslide.
2. So far, almost all the population within a range of 10 to 12 km from
the volcano has been evacuated. The total number of evacuees amounts to
some 35,000, of whom 25,000 have found refuge in emergency shelters (all
in all 56 shelters have been opened), where they are provided with basic
emergency supplies. The overall target population to be evacuated has been
increased to some 50,000 people from 40 communities in the states of
Mexico, Puebla and Morelos.
3. The President of Mexico has visited shelters and advised the
population that the authorities stay in a stage of alert. He further
assured them that there are enough food items, medicines, blankets and
drinking water in stock to cover emergency needs. The Armed Forces have so
far deployed 2,200 men with another 4,500 kept on stand-by in the Mexico
Districto Federal.
Request for international assistance
4. The Government has not requested OCHA to launch an appeal for
international assistance.
5. OCHA is monitoring the situation in close cooperation with the UN
Resident Coordinator's Office in Mexico City.
6. This Situation Report and further information on ongoing emergencies
are also available on the OCHA Internet Website at
http://www.reliefweb.int
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**** ARTICLES ****
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=> National Weather Service Day 3-10 U.S. Threats
Valid Friday, December 22, 2000 - Tuesday, January 2, 2001. Summary of
Forecasts & Threats
SYNOPSIS: Generally cold conditions over most of the country appear to be
the prevailing pattern
over the period. Storminess over the CONUS should be subdued during at least
the first several
days of the period but increase thereafter, most likely focusing on the
southwest, but details are very
uncertain.
THREATS
Drought continues across the central Florida peninsula during this
assessment period.
DETAILED SUMMARY
For Friday December 22 through Sunday December 24: A surge of cold air is
predicted to
encompass much of the eastern two thirds of the CONUS, period with some
threat of significant
Lake effect snows.
For Monday December 25 through January 2: Generally cold conditions are
expected to continue,
especially the northern half of the CONUS. There is too much uncertainty to
specify specific threats
at this time, but attention should be paid to possible developments in the
southwest.
=> Cerro Grande Fire Assistance Program Weekly Update
Santa Fe, December 20, 2000 -- The following is a summary of ongoing efforts
of the Cerro Grande
Fire Assistance Program administered by the Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA).
To date, $18.3 million in Cerro Grande Fire Claims funds have been approved
for individuals and
businesses in Los Alamos and the surrounding area including Espaņola, Santa
Clara Pueblo and San
Ildefonso Pueblo.
More than 3,427 Notices of Loss forms have been filed. Of them, private
citizens have filed 2,658
claims; businesses have filed 675 claims; state and county governments have
filed 12 claims; tribal
governments have filed three claims; not-for-profit groups have filed 26
claims; and 53 claims are in
the process of being classified.
Individuals who need assistance as result of the fires should visit one of
the Cerro Grande Fire
Assistance Customer Service Centers listed below. The toll-free Cerro Grande
Fire Assistance Line
is 1-888-748-1853. The address is: FEMA Office of Cerro Grande Fire Claims,
PO Box 1480,
Los Alamos, NM 87544-1480.
Six FEMA Customer Service Centers have assisted over 7,104 visitors since
the fire assistance
operation began on August 28, 2000.
Cerro Grande Fire Assistance Customer Service Centers are located at the
following sites:
Los Alamos IT Building Los Alamos,
235 Central Park Square Canyon School
Los Alamos, N M 87544 1100 Fourth St.
(505) 661-3121 Los Alamos, N M 87544
(505) 661-9002
Espaņola White Rock
1027 N. Railroad Ave. 134 State Road #4
Espaņola N M 87532 White Rock, N M 87544
(505) 747-4204 (505) 672-4020
Santa Clara Pueblo San Ildefonso Pueblo
Behind Health Clinic Visitors Center
Santa Clara Pueblo San Ildefonso Pueblo
(505) 753-0420 (505) 455-7312
FEMA Customer Service Center hours are in operation from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Monday through
Friday, and from 9 a.m. to noon Saturday. The centers are closed on Sundays.
=> Divisive Election Will Benefit Both Parties
The divisiveness of the 2000 presidential election will benefit both parties
and have a positive effect
on the U.S. political system for years to come, say two political science
researchers.
Based on results of their NSF-funded research over 16 years and four
national elections, Ronald B.
Rapoport of the College of William and Mary and Walter J. Stone of the
University of Colorado say
that activist on behalf of their candidates in one election carries over
into support for the party in
subsequent elections. "The mobilization of party loyalists, such as we have
seen over the past five
weeks, is likely to yield energized party members who will become more
involved, by virtue of their
experiences this year, in the 2002 congressional elections and in subsequent
presidential and
congressional elections," says Rapoport.
Research by Rapoport and Stone on 1984 and 1988 elections found divisive and
often bitter
contests for presidential nominees tended to mobilize active supporters for
both the losing and
winning candidates, and led to increased involvement in the subsequent
campaigns. In the 1992
elections, they found that supporters of H. Ross Perot were active well
beyond the election,
contributing to significantly increased major-party activity in the 1994
congressional elections. This
carryover was disproportionately directed toward support of Republican
candidates and helped
account for the Republican win that year.
"This research clearly holds out the promise of an important positive result
from the conflict which
has so profoundly affected the political system since November 7, "Stone
says. "These benefits will
occur because of, not despite, the protracted contest so closely fought
after election day." [Charles
Drum]
For more about Rapoport's and Stone's studies see:
http://faculty.wm.edu/rbrapo/reports/index.htm
and http://socsci.colorado.edu/~amstudy
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