It appears that Hurricane Isaac continues it's NW turn and will
probably reach cat 4 status and harrass shipping lanes.
I think Hurricane Joyce will reach at least cat 3 strength, giving the
Leewards and big islands of the Caribbean lot's of trouble. I still
think Joyce will enter the Caribbean Sea but with a gauntlet of SW shear
and TUTT lows in the way, a surviving major hurricane through the
Yucatan channel seems less likely. A trip north of the big islands
should make everyone from Miami to Charleston pay close attention.
I think we will see a T.D. in the NW Caribbean in the next 12-36 hours
and an eventual track of a TS/H Keith track up the west coast of
Florida, though at this moment conditions are not totally optimum for
rapid development, due to a nearby weakening TUTT low. The AVN model is
calling for an east coast Florida tropical system/hybrid? track but with
a strong CPk high pushing out into the Atlantic and it's attendent
strong NE wind flow, I don't see this senario occuring, unless it's an
extratropical low moving up the old frontal boundry across south central
Florida and out into the Atlantic.
The coolest reading I could find in Florida yesterday morning 9/27/00
was 45 in Lakewood and 51 in Crestview. Though the frontal boundry made
it to lake Okeechobee, dry air penetration stopped at the latitude of
Ocala, with a min temp of 63 deg.
73 And Take Care,
Thomas Giella, KN4LF
P.O. Box 1987
Plant City, Fl. 33564
Grid Square- EL88wx
CQ Zone 5
kn4lf{at}webtv.net
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources Site:
http://kn4lf.tripod.com
Florida Tropical And Severe Weather Resources Site:
http://kn4lf.tripod.com/index-3.html
Florida Winter Weather Season Discussion Site:
http://kn4lf.tripod.com/index-10.html
Giella Weather Forecasting And Consulting Site:
http://giellaweather.tripod.com
Continental Weather Corporation Site:
http://www.aallweather.com
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