[STORMREPORTS] USASitRep: For September 25, 2000

From: owner-sitrep{at}disastercenter.com
Date: Mon Sep 25 2000 - 11:50:40 EDT


The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report

For September 25, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
------------------------------------------------------------
=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
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The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report

For September 25, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
------------------------------------------------------------
=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes

National Temperature Extremes
High Sun...102 At Cotulla TX
Low Mon...14 At Douglas WY

=> Special Notes

=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook For The North Atlantic Caribbean Sea And
The Gulf Of Mexico

Tropical Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
1130 AM EDT Mon. Sep 25 2000

For The North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaac
located about 1340 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

The tropical wave located in the far eastern Atlantic about 425 miles
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is well organized...and could become a
tropical depression later today. The system is moving westward near 15 mph.

Cloudiness...showers and thunderstorms cover much of the southwest Caribbean
Sea. Pressures are low but this weather is not well organized at this time.
Any development in this area will be slow to occur.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.

Forecaster Pasch

=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:

Active Warnings:
Updated Mon Sep 25 11:37:27 2000

Flood

Connecticut
New Jersey
New York
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...

North Carolina
South Carolina
...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LUMBER RIVER

Wisconsin
A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE PARTS OF KENOSHA COUNTY ADJACENT
TO THE FOX RIVER.

Hurricane/Tropical Storm

United States
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU SEP 28 2000

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

19.0N 44.0W 46 1 X X 47 21.0N 48.0W X 12 8 2 22
20.0N 46.0W 6 23 X X 29

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

Non Precipitation

Arkansas
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF ARKANSAS TODAY.

Arizona
...FREEZE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA...

Colorado
Kansas
Nebraska
...A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO... SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT...

Maine
A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS.

New York
Vermont
...FROST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION IN NEW YORK AS WELL AS SOUTHERN VERMONT...

Texas
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast

The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.

Tornado Risk - Slight
There is a 2% or greater probability of a tornado covering: southeast
Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina except the southern part, and
northern Georgia.

Hail Risk - Slight
There is a 5% or greater probability of a hail, 3/4 inch or larger covering:
southeast Tennessee, North Carolina and South Carolina, central and northern
Georgia and east northeast Alabama.

Wind Risk - Slightly Moderate
There is a 5% probability area for winds in excess of 50 knots covering far
southern Virginia, south southeast Kentucky, central and eastern Tennessee,
the east northeastern 1/3 of Alabama, Georgia except the far southern area,
and North and South Carolina.
The 15% probability area covers east Tennessee, North Carolina, South
Carolina except the southern part, and northern Georgia.

Tomorrow's Risk - Slight
There are no areas at risk of severe weather tomorrow.

=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hr precipitation forecast is calling for over an inch of rainfall
over northeast Tennessee, eastern Kentucky, central and southern West
Virginia, Virginia, central Maryland west to east, Delaware, and southern
New Jersey.
The 24 - 48 hr precipitation forecast is calling for no area to receive over
an inch of rainfall.

Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood values.

The probability of heavy snow and/or significant icing is less than 20
percent.

=> USA Flood Report

NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
1045 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2000
FLOOD SUMMARY
TROPICAL STORM HELENE AFFECTS THE CAROLINAS
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE AFFECTED THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED IN
NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE WAS FLASH FLOODING FROM FLORIDA TO NEW YORK.
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE CENTRAL US
THUNDERSTORMS PENETRATED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL US ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD FLASH AND STREET FLOODING. THERE WERE ALSO BENEFICIAL RAINS IN
DROUGHT-STRICKEN EASTERN TEXAS.
OUTLOOK
RAIN, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY, WILL FALL ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
FLASH FLOODING:
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS (IN ALPHABETICAL
ORDER, BY STATE):

FLORIDA:

FRIDAY: FRANKLIN, HIGHLANDS, JEFFERSON, LEON, POLK, SUMTER AND
WAKULLA COUNTIES

GEORGIA:

FRIDAY: HARALSON AND POLK COUNTIES

ILLINOIS:

SATURDAY: BOONE, OGLE AND WINNEBAGO COUNTIES

FRIDAY: BOONE, HENDERSON, JO DAVIESS, STEPHENSON, WARREN AND
WINNEBAGO COUNTIES

IOWA:

FRIDAY: DES MOINES, HENRY, IOWA, JOHNSON, KEOKUK, LEE, VAN BUREN
AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES

KENTUCKY:

SUNDAY: BREATHITT, ESTILL, KNOTT, LEE, MAGOFFIN, POWELL AND WOLFE
COUNTIES
MICHIGAN:
SATURDAY: ALLEGAN, BARRY, CLINTON, EATON, IONIA, KENT AND
OTTAWA COUNTIES
MISSOURI:
SUNDAY: SHANNON COUNTY
SATURDAY: DOUGLAS, TEXAS, WEBSTER AND WRIGHT COUNTIES
NEW YORK:

SATURDAY: ERIE AND YATES COUNTIES

NORTH CAROLINA:

SATURDAY: BRUNSWICK, COLUMBUS, NEW HANOVER, ONSLOW AND PENDER
COUNTIES

FRIDAY: ANSON, BLADEN, BRUNSWICK, CUMBERLAND, DARLINGTON,
FLORENCE, HOKE, SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES

OHIO:

SATURDAY: CHAMPAIGN, CLINTON, DELAWARE, FAIRFIELD, FRANKLIN,
LOGAN, UNION AND WARREN COUNTIES

PENNSYLVANIA:

SUNDAY: JEFFERSON COUNTY

PUERTO RICO:

SUNDAY: THE MUNICIPALITIES OF AGUADA, ANASCO,CABO, HORMIGUEROS,
LAS MARIAS, MARICAO, MAYAGUEZ, MOCA, SAN GERMAN AND SAN SEBATIAN

SATURDAY: THE MUNICIPALITIES OF ANASCO, HORMIGUEROS, LARES, LAS
MARIAS, MARICAO, MAYAGUEZ, MOCA, RINCON, SABANA GRANDE, SAN
GERMAN, SAN SEBASTIAN AND UTUADO

FRIDAY: THE MUNICIPALITIES OF CAROLINA, SAN JUAN AND TRUJILLO
ALTO

SOUTH CAROLINA:

SATURDAY: BAMBERG, BARNWELL AND BERKELEY COUNTIES

FRIDAY: BERKELEY, DARLINGTON, FLORENCE, GREENWOOD, KERSHAW,
LAURENS, RICHLAND AND UNION COUNTIES

TEXAS:

SUNDAY: CROCKETT, KIMBLE, MASON AND MENARD COUNTIES

SATURDAY: MITCHELL AND TERRELL COUNTIES

WISCONSIN:

FRIDAY: KENOSHA, MILWAUKEE, RACINE, WALWORTH AND WAUKESHA COUNTIES
RIVER FLOODING:
RIVERS AND STREAMS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE INCLUDE (IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER, BY STATE).

ALASKA: RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE KUSKOKWIM BASIN

FLORIDA: THE ST. MARKS, WITHLACOOCHEE, AUCILLA, SOPCHOPPY AND MYAKKA
RIVERS

NEW YORK: THE BUFFALO, CAYUGA AND CAZENOVIA CREEKS

NORTH CAROLINA: THE LUMBER RIVER

WISCONSIN: THE FOX AND ROOT RIVERS

=> USA Fire Report and Forecast

INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2000 - 0530 MDT
NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL III

CURRENT SITUATION:

One new large fire was reported in the Eastern Great Basin. Containment
was reached on five large fires; one in Eastern Great Basin and four in
the Southern Area. Initial attack activity was light in all areas. Very
high to extreme fire indices were reported in Oregon, Arizona, Arkansas,
California, Nevada, Oklahoma and Texas.

SOUTHERN AREA LARGE FIRES:

CHICKEN, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is 20 miles east of
Nacogdoches, TX. A Type II Incident Management Team (Ruggiero) is
assigned. The fire has received wetting precipitation which has aided
crews with containment and mopup.

ARBUCKLE COMPLEX, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Ferguson) is assigned. This fire is 11 miles northwest
of Ardmore, OK. The fire area received light precipitation that assisted
crews in containment objectives. The plans are in place to transition to
a Type III Incident Management Team, and some resources are being
demobilized.

SPANISH GRANT, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is burning just
south of San Antonio, TX. The fire is burning in mesquite and oak. The
fire received light precipitation that has aided the containment efforts.

BRISTOW COMPLEX, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This fire is six miles
northeast of Bristow, OK. Crews continue to monitor and mopup the fire.

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA LARGE FIRES:

VALENTINE COMPLEX, Valentine National Wildlife Refuge. This complex of
seven lightning-caused fires is 25 miles south of Valentine, NE.
Precipitation, overcast conditions and low temperatures are helping
firefighters with containment. Minimal fire activity has been observed.

SPRING MOUNTAIN, Wind River Agency, BIA. This fire is 35 miles southeast
of Pavillion, WY. No new information to report.

NORTHERN ROCKIES AREA LARGE FIRES:

VALLEY COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Gauger) is assigned. These fires are seven miles south of Darby,
MT. The complex consists of the Bear, Taylor, Taylor Spot, Hilltop,
Razor, Fat, and Mink fires. Incident Management Team (Gauger) is
preparing to transition with Type II Incident Management Team (Furlong).
Monitoring of the fire perimeter continues. Crews are making good
progress on rehabilitation efforts.

MUSSIGBROD COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. These fires are
12 miles northwest of Wisdom, MT. The complex includes the Mussigbrod and
Maynard fires. Rehabilitation has begun on primary containment lines.
Crews continue to clear hazard trees and gather equipment. Road closures
continue to be patrolled.

MIDDLE FORK COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. These fires
are 30 miles southwest of Philipsburg, MT. The complex consists of the
Falls Creek, Cougar Creek, Coyote Springs, Medicine Lake, Skalkaho Pass,
Lick Creek, and Cooper Creek fires. Rehabilitation continues.

EASTERN GREAT BASIN AREA LARGE FIRES:

CLEAR CREEK COMPLEX, Salmon-Challis National Forest. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Stam) is assigned. This complex consists of the Clear
Creek, Marlin Springs, Full Circle, and Sisters fires. Some smoldering
with very little open flame has been observed. The Type I Incident
Management Team (Stam) is preparing to transition with the Type II
Incident Management Team (Carr).

HILLTOP, Lower Snake River District, BLM. This fire is burning in light
fuels and steep terrain five miles east of Boise, ID. Low relative
humidity and steady winds kept the fire active and rapid rates of spread
were observed.

SOUTHWEST AREA LARGE FIRES:

BLOODGOOD COMPLEX, Gila National Forest. A Fire Use Management Team
(Cook) is assigned. This complex consists of the Bloodgood and the Sierra
fires. These lightning ignited wildfires are being managed to accomplish
resource objectives. Holding actions are being conducted on sections
where the fire has potential to adversely affect Gila Trout habitat.

OUTLOOK:

*** A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED IN SOUTH TEXAS FOR STRONG NORTH
WINDS***

Across Oklahoma, Texas and the Gulf Coast states scattered rain and
thunderstorms will be confined to the coastal areas and south Texas.
Windy conditions are expected due to a cold front that will extend from
southeast coast to the gulf coast states and into south Texas. High
temperatures will be in the 60's and 70's, with afternoon relative
humidity ranging 35 to 50 percent inland and higher in the coastal region.
Winds will be from the northwest at 15 to 20 mph.

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather in the western half of
the United States, and mostly sunny skies should prevail. High
temperatures will range from the 50's to 70's in the Pacific Northwest and
into the 80's and 90's in southern Oregon and California. Afternoon
minimum relative humidity will range from 10 to 30 percent. Winds will be
northwesterly at 10 to 15 mph.

=> USA Earthquake Report

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 SEP 25 at 00:15 UTC

NO EVENTS

=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports

Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received

Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2030 88 HUNTSVILLE MADISON AL 3473 8661 NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CITY OF HUNTSVILLE. (BHM)
2356 100 4 N WALESKA CHEROKEE GA 3438 8455 (ATL)

Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2214 UNK 8 S GAFFNEY CHEROKEE SC 3493 8163 CHEROKEE EOC REPORTED A COUPLE OF
TREES DOWN OFF HIGHWAY 18 IN THE THICKETTY CREEK BRIDGE AREA. (GSP)

Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")

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