The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For September 20, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> New FEMA Study Estimates U.S. Losses From Earthquakes At $4.4 Billion Per
Year
=> Faults In The Folds Could Mean A Big Shake For The Cook Inlet, Say
Scientists
=> The U.S. Fire Administration has received notice of the following
firefighter fatalities:
=> Wireless Innovations in Communications Initiative
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For September 20, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook For The North Atlantic Caribbean Sea And
The Gulf Of Mexico
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Twelve located about 50 miles north-northwest of Cabo San Antonio Cuba.
The area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico remains
disorganized...and the scheduled reconnaissance flight has been canceled.
This system should continue moving northward over the next or so...spreading
showers and locally gusty winds over portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts.
A large tropical wave located about 900 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands
is moving at 15 to 20 mph. Upper-level winds are not favorable for
development at this time.
A tropical wave just west of the coast of Africa shows some signs of
organization. Further slow development is possible over the next day or so.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Wed Sep 20 11:38:19 2000
Flash Flood
Florida
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR PINELLAS...
HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...LEE...DESOTO...AND HARDEE
COUNTIES.
Hurricane/Tropical Storm
United States
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
27.0N 88.7W 45 1 X X 46 PENSACOLA FL X 21 5 X 26
30.0N 88.7W 1 28 1 X 30 MOBILE AL X 24 3 X 27
32.5N 86.5W X 2 18 X 20 GULFPORT MS X 26 2 X 28
MUAN 219N 850W 99 X X X 99 BURAS LA 3 27 1 X 31
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 2 X 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X 24 1 X 25
JACKSONVILLE FL X X 6 X 6 NEW IBERIA LA X 12 1 X 13
SAVANNAH GA X X 4 X 4 GULF 29N 85W X 12 4 X 16
TAMPA FL X 1 2 X 3 GULF 29N 87W 3 26 X X 29
CEDAR KEY FL X 1 6 X 7 GULF 28N 89W 27 12 X X 39
ST MARKS FL X 4 11 X 15 GULF 28N 91W 7 13 X X 20
APALACHICOLA FL X 10 7 X 17 GULF 28N 93W X 2 X X 2
PANAMA CITY FL X 14 6 X 20
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU
C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI
D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
Special Marine
Florida
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA
BEACH FL EXTENDING OUT TO 20 NM... * UNTIL 1130 AM EDT
Non Precipitation
Arkansas
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY...
Kansas
...THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...
North Dakota
...WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...
New Mexico
...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
Oklahoma
.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY DAYBREAK USHERING
IN HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
South Dakota
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.
Texas
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY DAYBREAK USHERING IN
HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
Winter Storm
Montana
...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH IS EXPECTED.
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight +
There is a 2% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point for an
area covering, far southeast Missouri, southeast Illinois, the southeast 2/3
of Indiana, the northwest 1/4 of Tennessee, the northwest 1/3 of Kentucky,
and central west Ohio.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is a 5% probability of hail, 3/4 inch and larger over eastern
Arkansas, southeast Missouri, the southeast 1/3 of Illinois, Indiana except
the northwest area, Ohio except the eastern area, Kentucky except the
southeast area, the northeast 1/2 of Tennessee, and northeast Mississippi.
Wind Risk - Moderate
The 5% probability area for winds in excess of 50 knots covers east central
and eastern Arkansas, southeast Missouri, the southeast 1/3 of Illinois,
Indiana, south southeast Michigan, Ohio, far central west Pennsylvania, far
northwest West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee except the southeastern area,
northwest Alabama, and northern Mississippi.
The 15% probability area covers far northeast Arkansas, far southeast
Missouri, southeast Illinois, Indiana except the northeastern area, Ohio
except the eastern and far southeastern areas, Kentucky except the
southeastern area and the northwest 1/3 of Tennessee.
The 25 % probability area covers far southeast Illinois, the southeast 1/2
of Indiana, central west Ohio, and north northwest Kentucky.
Tomorrow's Risk - Slight
There are no areas at risk of severe weather tomorrow.
Areas at a lesser degree of risk include far southeastern Nebraska, eastern
Kansas, southeastern Iowa, western Missouri, and far northeastern Oklahoma.
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hr precipitation forecast is calling for over an inch of rainfall
over southeast Indiana, southwest Ohio, central north Florida, and southwest
Florida.
The 24 - 48 hr precipitation forecast is calling for over 2 inches of
rainfall over northwest Florida. Over an inch of rainfall are forecast over
the Florida panhandle, far southern Alabama, far southwest Georgia, and the
central coastal area of Texas.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood values.
=> Snowfall is forecast for tomorrow over portions of Montana, and central
north Wyoming.
=> USA Flood Report
National Hydrologic Summary
National Weather Service Headquarters
0810 Am EDT Tue Sep 19 2000
Flood Summary
Flooding From Remnants Of Gordon
Locally heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon
caused flash flooding across the eastern Carolinas. At least one
home in the myrtle beach area of south Carolina had flooding
problems. Several rivers in central Florida are also flooding
due to heavy rains from Gordon.
Flash Flooding:
Flood/Flash Flood and/or Urban And Small Stream Flood Advisories
Were Issued Over The Last Day For Locations Including(In
Alphabetical Order By State):
North Carolina: Brunswick, Columbus, Craven, New Hanover And
Onslow Counties.
Puerto Rico: Bayamon, Dorado, Guayama, Guaynabo, Juana Diaz, Ponce, Salinas,
San Juan, Santa Isabel, Toa Alta And Toa Baja Municipalities.
South Carolina: Berkeley, Charleston, Georgetown And Horry Counties.
River Flooding:
Rivers And Streams With Locations Either Above Flood Stage Or Expected To
Rise Above Flood Stage Include (In Alphabetical Order, By State)
Florida: The Myakka, Little Manatee, Manatee And Peace Rivers; Horse Creek.
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2000 - 0530 MDT
NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL III
CURRENT SITUATION:
Eleven new large fires were reported, one in the Rocky Mountain Area, one in
Northern California and nine in the Southern Area. Crews reached containment
goals on seven large fires. Initial attack activity was moderate in the
Southern Area and light elsewhere. Very high to extreme fire indices were
reported in Oregon, California, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Montana, Arizona,
Colorado, Kansas, Arkansas, Texas, Alabama, and Oklahoma.
SOUTHERN AREA LARGE FIRES:
CHICKEN, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is located 20 miles east of
Nacogdoches, TX. A Type II Incident Management Team (Ruggiero) is assigned.
Higher relative humidity and cloud cover allowed crews to work the northern
perimeter. Interior burning continues.
ARBUCKLE COMPLEX, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Ferguson) is assigned. This fire is located 11 miles
northwest of Ardmore, OK. The fire is extremely active and several homes
were evacuated. The fire jumped interstate 35 and is threatening the town of
Davis, TX. Strong winds, extremely low fuel moistures and low relative
humidity are contributing to control problems.
COUNTY LINE, Alabama Forestry Commission. This fire is located three miles
south of Providence, AL. The fire is threatening the community of
Providence, outlying residences, powerlines, and a natural gas line. Drought
conditions and strong winds are hampering control efforts.
LINDSAY, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This fire is located five miles
southwest of Lindsay, OK. The fire has exhibited extreme fire behavior such
as crowning and spotting up to one quarter mile. Numerous structures are
threatened. Very high winds, low fuel moisture and low relative humidity are
contributing to control problems.
GIBSON, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This wind driven fire is located four
miles east of Newkirk, OK.
SUGARLOAF, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This fire is burning in a mixed
hardwood and pine plantation two miles north of Monroe, OK. The fire is in
monitor status.
BRISTOW, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This fire is located six miles
northeast of Bristow, OK. The fire is exhibiting extreme fire behavior with
spotting, crowning and rapid rates of spread. The fire escaped containment
lines several times. Numerous structures remain threatened. Rough terrain is
contributing to control problems. Evacuation plans are in place.
LONGTHORN, Southern Plains Regional Office, BIA. This fire is located north
of Cooperton, OK. High winds, single digit relative humidity and high
temperatures continue to challenge efforts.
STEPHENVILLE, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is located 50 miles
southeast of Ft. Worth, TX. The fire is burning in cedar, oak, mesquite, and
juniper. Air operations assisted in saving a subdivision.
BUTTER CREEK, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is located in Cass
County, TX, and is burning in grass, brush and timber. The town of Queen
City was partially evacuated.
CEMENT, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This fire is located one mile north
of Cement, OK. The fire is burning in grass and hardwood timber fuels.
Extreme fire behavior has been observed. Rates of spread up to 80 chains an
hour were reported. Homes and oil tank batteries remain threatened.
CALHOUN, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This fire is located ten miles
northwest of Poteau, OK. This fire is burning in a pine plantation and
hardwood timber fuels. Fire behavior observed included crowning, spotting
and rapid rates of spread. Numerous structures were threatened.
GORGE, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This fire is located five miles west
of Wynona, OK, and is burning in grass and hardwood timber. Crown fire with
60 foot flame lengths was observed. Homes and outbuilding remain threatened.
OAKCLIFF, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This fire is located five miles
south of Guthrie, OK, and is burning in grass, cedar and hardwood timber
fuels. Crown fire with rapid rates of spread were reported. Fifty primary
structures are reported destroyed and 450 still threatened. Evacuation plans
are in place for surrounding communities.
JONES CREEK, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is located in Franklin
County, TX, and is burning in grass and timber. Underground gas lines are
slowing line construction .
TURKEY, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is burning in heavy oak and
pine fuels 20 miles southwest of Nacogdoches, TX. No new information was
received.
RAZORBACK, Southern Plains Regional Office. This fire is located west of
Andarko, OK. Extreme fire behavior observed with 80 foot flame lengths and
spotting to one tenth of a mile.
SHELL LAKE, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This fire is burning in grass and
timber two miles northwest of Sand Springs, OK. No new information was
received.
CEMENT PLANT, Oklahoma Division of Forestry. This fire is located one and a
half miles south of Pawnee, OK. No new information was reported.
KERNEL, Eastern Oklahoma Regional Office, BIA. This fire is located four
miles east of Vamoosa, OK. No new information was received.
ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
VALENTINE COMPLEX, Valentine National Wildlife Refuge. This fire is located
25 miles south of Valentine, NE. There are seven lightning-caused fires
burning on the Valentine Refuge. Light precipitation, cloud cover and higher
humidity have slowed the fire spread and aided mopup efforts. Residents were
allowed to return home.
COOPER MOUNTAIN, Canon City District, BLM. This fire is located ten miles
northeast of Canon City, CO. Significant progress was made on fireline
construction and some mopup is underway.
SPRING MOUNTAIN, Wind River Agency, BIA. This fire is located 35 miles
southeast of Pavillion, WY. Steep, rocky terrain is hampering containment
efforts. Current threats are to commercial timber.
POWDERHORN COMPLEX, Nebraska National Forest. This fire is located 18 miles
west of Merrit Reservoir, NE. Early morning moisture and cooler temperatures
have decreased fire behavior. Light precipitation aided in mopup operations.
NORTHERN ROCKIES AREA LARGE FIRES:
BUNYAN POINT/EAR MTN. COMPLEX, Lewis and Clark National Forest. A Type I
Incident Management Team (Bennett) is assigned. This complex is located 22
miles west-southwest of Augusta, MT, and consists of the Bunyan Point and
Ear Mountain fires. The Ear Mountain fire reached 100 percent containment.
The Bunyan fire remains unstaffed and will continue to be monitored. Lower
temperatures and precipitation has limited fire growth. Some demobilization
is occurring. A guest ranch, winter range and grizzly habitat are
threatened.
VALLEY COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Gauger) is assigned. These fires are located seven miles south of
Darby, MT. The complex consists of the Bear, Taylor, Taylor Spot, Hilltop,
Razor, Fat, and Mink fires. Cloudy, cool weather and higher humidity has
decreased fire activity. Rehabilitation is continuing on the fires.
SKALKAHO COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Hoff) is assigned. This group of fires is located ten miles southeast
of Hamilton, MT. Cloudy, cool weather has slowed fire activity. Mopup and
rehabilitation continues.
MUSSIGBROD COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. These fires are
located 12 miles northwest of Wisdom, MT. The complex includes the
Mussigbrod and Maynard fires. Crews are working interior hotspots and
rehabilitation continues in all divisions.
MIDDLE FORK COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. These fires are
located 30 miles southwest of Philipsburg, MT. The complex consists of the
Falls Creek, Cougar Creek, Coyote Springs, Medicine Lake, Skalkaho Pass,
Lick Creek, and Cooper Creek fires. Crews continued to make good progress on
securing containment lines. Mopup and rehabilitation continues.
SHOULDER BLADE, Crow Agency, BIA. This fire is located eight miles southeast
of Saint Xavier, MT. The fire received a considerable amount of rain. Crews
are patrolling and continuing with mopup.
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
CLEAR CREEK COMPLEX, Salmon-Challis National Forest. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Stam) is assigned. This complex consists of the Clear
Creek, Marlin Springs, Full Circle, and Sisters fires. The 3rd Battalion,
2nd Marines from Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, commanded by LTC Smith, is
committed. Observed fire behavior is minimal due to light rain showers
received and high humidity. Increased acreage reflects the inclusion of all
fires within the complex.
BRUSH CANYON, Upper Snake River District, Eastern Idaho Area, BLM. This
fire, located 12 miles south of Malad, ID, is burning in grass and juniper.
Strong winds and rough terrain are hampering containment efforts. Critical
wildlife habitat is threatened.
SCF WILDERNESS, Salmon-Challis National Forest. Eleven wildland fires are
currently burning within the Salmon-Challis Wilderness Complex, including
the Little Pistol, Indian Creek, Filly, Butts, Papoose, Parker, Packer
Meadow, and Shell Rock. Wilson Creek, Jackass and Jack Creek are no longer
part of this complex. Fires continue to smolder with no significant growth.
SOUTHWEST AREA LARGE FIRES:
BLOODGOOD COMPLEX, Gila National Forest. A Fire Use Management Team (Cook)
is assigned. This complex consists of the Bloodgood and the Sierra fires.
These lightning ignited wildfires are being managed to accomplish resource
objectives. The fires continue to exhibit low and moderate fire behavior.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA LARGE FIRES:
CONCOW, Butte Ranger Unit, California Department of Forestry. This fire is
located 18 miles east of Chico, CA. The fire is being pushed by strong winds
and is being affected by high temperatures and low humidity. Numerous
structures are threatened, although no structures are reported damaged.
OUTLOOK:
*** A RED FLAG WARNING IS POSTED IN ARKANSAS FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES.***
*** A RED FLAG WARNING IS POSTED IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR LOW
HUMIDITY, HOT TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS.***
*** A RED FLAG WARNING IS POSTED IN SOUTHWEST OREGON FOR STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.***
*** A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS FOR GUSTY SOUTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, POSSIBLE LIGHTNING AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.***
*** A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED IN NORTHERN TEXAS FOR A WIND SHIFT.***
In Oklahoma and north Texas, a cold front will bring a wind shift from
south, southwest to a northwesterly direction. Increased moisture will bring
a chance of showers and thunderstorms along the gulf coast. High
temperatures will range from the 80's to mid 90's. Minimum afternoon
humidity will be 20 to 30 percent inland and 45 to 60 percent along the
immediate coast. Winds will be south to southwest 10 to 20 mph ahead of the
cold front and northwest 15 to 25 mph behind it.
An upper level ridge with an associated surface thermal trough will bring
critical fire weather conditions from central California to northwest
Oregon. Temperatures will increase to over 100 degrees in some locations,
with relative humidity of five to 15 percent. Winds will be north to east up
to 25 mph.
In other parts of the west, a northwest flow will bring cooler temperatures,
especially in the northern Rockies where highs will only be in the 50's and
60's. Except for a chance of showers in the northern Rockies, it should be
dry and stable. Winds will be out of the northwest from 15 to 25 mph in the
north and 10 to 20 mph elsewhere.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 SEP 20 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(29.0 TO 35.8 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 SEP 19 10:17:37.00 34.0 N 116.8 W 0 km 3.1
NEAR Banning, California
EARTHQUAKES IN WEST CENTRAL UNITED STATES
(35.8 TO 40.3 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 SEP 19 03:46:33.00 36.1 N 117.9 W 0 km 3.0
30 miles NNW of Ridgecrest, California
EARTHQUAKES IN STATE OF ALASKA
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 SEP 19 20:19:56.36 57.4 N 154.6 W 41 km 5.1
85 miles WSW of Kodiak, Alaska
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2310 UNK TAMPA HILLSBOROUGH FL 2798 8246 SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIRES DOWN
THROUGHOUT THE CITY. TREE DOWN ON APARTMENT IN TAMPA HEIGHTS. LARGE LIMBS
DOWN ON 11TH STREET NEAR FOWLER AVE. REPORTED BY STORM (TBW)
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> New FEMA Study Estimates U.S. Losses From Earthquakes At $4.4 Billion Per
Year
California alone accounts for $3.3 billion, but many vulnerable cities are
in other states. -
Washington, September 20, 2000 -- Earthquake losses in the United States add
up to about $4.4 billion dollars a year, according to a study by the Federal
Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) based on a new methodology to estimate
earthquake risk and future losses by geographic area.
The study, which is the first ever, national study of earthquake risk across
the United States,wasreleased Sept. 20, 2000, at the National Earthquake
Risk Management Conference in Seattle, Wash.
According to the study, 84 percent of the nation's annual losses are
expected to occur in California, Oregon and Washington, with California
alone accounting for $3.3 billion of the estimated damage costs. Earthquake
loss estimates are annualized to factor in historic patterns of frequent
smaller earthquake events with infrequent but larger events.
The $4.4 billion estimate is extremely conservative and includes only
capital losses such as repairing or replacing buildings, contents and
inventory ($3.49 billion), and income losses - business interruption, wage
and rental income losses ($0.93 billion). It does not cover damage and
losses to critical facilities, transportation and utility lifelines or
indirect economic losses.
While most of the estimated losses are in California, Oregon and Washington,
the distribution of earthquake risk is much broader. Relatively high
earthquake loss ratios exist throughout the western U.S., the central U.S.
states within the New Madrid Seismic Zone and the Charleston, S.C., area.
The high risk and high projected losses for urban areas in California are
because of the combination of high seismic hazard and relatively high
economic exposure, which also apply for Seattle and Portland, according to
the study.
In addition to California metropolitan areas, cities ranked among the top 40
high-loss potential urban areas include Seattle, Portland, New York, Salt
Lake City, St. Louis, Tacoma, Las Vegas, Anchorage, Boston, Reno, Memphis,
Charleston, S.C., Albuquerque, Newark, Honolulu and Atlanta. In terms of
vulnerability, Hilo, Anchorage, Reno, Portland, Seattle, Tacoma, Salt Lake
City, Charleston, S.C., Provo, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Memphis, St. Louis,
Honolulu, New York, Newark, Atlanta, Boston and Philadelphia are on the top
40 list.
"While seismic hazard in the United States has remained fairly constant over
the years, seismic risk has been increasing substantially," FEMA Director
James Lee Witt said. "That's because of the increase of urban development in
seismic hazard areas and the vulnerability of older buildings, some of which
were not built to adequate seismic code."
The study indicates that probable annual earthquakes losses in the United
States are almost equal to the losses experienced from floods and
hurricanes. Annual flood losses totaled $5.2 billion during 1989 to 1998,
according to the National Weather Service. The National Climatic Data Center
estimates $5.4 billion in annual hurricane losses for the period.
To arrive at their findings, FEMA building scientists and seismologists used
an earthquake loss estimation methodology called Hazards U.S. (HAZUS),
developed by the agency in cooperation with the National Institute of
Building Sciences. HAZUS technology uses an integrated Geographic
Information System (GIS) platform that produces regional profiles and
estimates of earthquake loss by geographic area, and addresses the built
environment and categories of losses in a comprehensive manner.
The computer-based methodology incorporates probabilistic seismic hazard
data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey as a set of 18 to 20
intensity-probability pairs for each of approximately 150,000 grid points
used to cover the entire United States. It uses mathematical formulas as
well as information about local building inventories, geological conditions,
economic data, location and size of potential earthquakes, and other data to
estimate losses. The system can specify areas of potential or actual damage
and degree of damage in areas as small as the census track level based on
the magnitude of the seismic activity and information that has been input
into the system on building inventory.
"This new earthquake loss estimation system is the first of its kind in that
its methodology utilizes probability factors rather than depending on actual
historical data alone to estimate future losses from earthquakes," Witt
said. "FEMA plans to expand the methodology and develop new models for
estimating potential losses for other natural disasters as well, including
high wind events and coastal and riverine flooding."
Two interrelated parameters were used in the study to characterize seismic
risk in the United States. They include average annualized earthquake loss
and annualized earthquake loss ratio. The annualized loss estimate addresses
two key components of seismic risk - the probability of ground motion and
the consequences of that motion on the area. To estimate risk or
vulnerability, FEMA scientists used the ratio of estimated losses as a
percentage of the replacement value of the area's total building inventory.
Thus risk or vulnerability is calculated in terms of estimated earthquake
loss in relation to the size of the community. For example, $10 billion in
earthquake damages in Evansville, Ind., would represent a more significant
impact on the area than a comparable dollar loss in Los Angeles.
"Understanding earthquake risk is basic to making informed decisions on
mitigation policies, priorities and strategies, in both the public and
private sectors," Witt said. "Understanding the scope and complexity of
potential earthquake damage in a community provides the foundation for
planning, zoning, building codes and regulating development in a way to
reduce earthquake risk."
The study represents an important benchmark in a long-term FEMA effort to
analyze, rank and compare seismic risk across regions in the United States.
The information from the study can provide policy makers and planners with a
nationally consistent approach that will help them understand the complexity
and dynamics of risk, how levels of risk can be measured and compared, and
the multitude of factors that influence risk. "We hope that we can convince
state and local policymakers to adopt and enforce seismic building codes in
regions of the United States that experience infrequent but damaging
earthquakes," Witt said. "In addition, the information provided in this
study should become an integral component of a national seismic risk
baseline, aggregated at the metropolitan, state and regional level to
support options and actions to reduce seismic risk in the United States."
Through FEMA's Project Impact, an initiative launched in 1997, communities
with earthquake risks are encouraged to plan and implement programs to
address the risk and prevent damage from disasters. Project Impact
communities foster private-public partnerships and initiate public outreach,
mentoring and mitigation projects that implement disaster damage prevention
measures.
To date, some of the cities at greatest risk have been designated Project
Impact communities, including Oakland, Hilo, Charleston, Reno, Anchorage,
Salt Lake City, Portland and Seattle. FEMA will work with the other urban
areas at high risk for earthquakes to implement disaster resistance programs
and encourage them to become Project Impact communities.
The full report, HAZUS 99: Average Annual Earthquake Losses for the United
States, is available on FEMA's Web site at
http://www.fema.gov/pdf/FEMA366.pdf. Hard copies of the study will be
available beginning in mid-October and can be obtained by calling FEMA
publications at 1-800-480-2520 at that time.
=> Faults In The Folds Could Mean A Big Shake For The Cook Inlet, Say
Scientists
Faults, or breaks, in the geologic folds that underlie the Alaska's Cook
Inlet could generate large earthquakes of magnitude 6 and above, according
to scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Utah.
Writing in the September issue of the bulletin of the Geological Society of
America (GSA), the scientists describe faults beneath the inlet that lies
southwest of Anchorage. Peter Haeussler, a USGS geologist in Anchorage, said
that any of the faults could produce earthquakes similar to the 6.9
earthquake that shook the village of Beluga on April 26, 1933. Because the
area was sparsely populated at the time, property damage was light and there
were no fatalities.
Haeussler said that although earthquakes in magnitude 3-4 range are
relatively common about 10 to 20 miles beneath the Cook Inlet surface, data
from a recent study indicate that larger earthquakes much nearer to the
surface are likely.
Haeussler and colleagues Ronald Bruhn at the University of Utah and Thomas
Pratt of the USGS in Seattle, arrived at the new conclusions after examining
seismic reflection data collected by ARCO Alaska and donated to the USGS.
The seismic reflection data allows the scientists to see geologic structures
in the Earth's crust up to a depth of about eight miles in a way similar to
how sonograms are used to see inside the human body. These data, in
conjunction with oil well data spanning almost 40 years, show that
structures that trapped oil and gas in Cook Inlet are relatively young and
may still be growing. "Probably less than 1.6 million years old," Haeussler
said. He also said the structures in Cook Inlet have a similar style to
those in a folded area of southern California that produced the magnitude
6.7 Northridge earthquake in 1994.
Prior to this latest study, the Castle Mountain fault, beneath the
Sutton/Palmer/Houston area was the only known active fault at the surface of
southcentral Alaska. Haeussler and colleagues have determined that the
Castle Mountain fault is part of a broad 'field' of structures that are
probably still
active, meaning they might produce earthquakes. These faults in folds
constitute a separate zone in which earthquakes can be generated above the
subduction zone, which produced the 1964 magnitude 9.2 earthquake and lies
about 25 miles beneath Anchorage.
Haeussler said that although the oil platforms in the Cook Inlet could
probably withstand one or more large earthquakes, some of the pipelines that
carry the oil and natural gas from the Cook Inlet to Anchorage and onshore
refineries might rupture in an earthquake.
=> The U.S. Fire Administration has received notice of the following
firefighter fatalities:
Names: Crew Chief Mike Fossett (Age 46)
Pilot David Tim Newman (Age 40)
Status: Career
Date of Incident: 09/07/2000
Date of Death: 09/07/2000
Fire Department: North Carolina Division of Forest Resources
Fire Department Address: 1616 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, NC 27699-1616
Fire Department Chief: Stan Adams
Cause of Death: Pilot David Tim Newman and Crew Chief Mike Fossett were both
killed in a helicopter crash en route to a school field day activity that
was to include the helicopter and crew as a fire prevention display.
Name: Robert Humphrey
Rank: Firefighter
Status: Volunteer
Age: 62
Date of Incident: September 17, 2000
Date of Death: September 17, 2000
Fire Department: Chief Jason Rosier, Maryland Line Volunteer Fire Company
#450, 21631 York Road, Maryland Line, Maryland 21105
Preliminary Determination of the Cause of Death: Firefighter Humphrey died
from injuries sustained when he was hit by a vehicle while crossing the road
to assist in a MVA.
=> Wireless Innovations in Communications Initiative
IRAC Ad Hoc Group 215
September 26, 2000
Herbert C. Hoover Building - Room 6808
1401 Constitution Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20230
AGENDA
1. Introductions by Chair/ Presentation Guidelines
1:30-1:40
2. Presentation by Lumenix 1:40-2:10
Lumenix will give a responsive presentation to requirements that were
outlined by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and Federal
Highway
Administration
(FHWA).
3. Presentation by National Roadside Assistance Association
2:10-2:30
The National Roadside Assistance Association will give a presentation
on wireless *811 communications for timely non-emergency response outside
the 911 or
E911 venue.
4. Presentation by NASA
2:30-3:00
NASA will give a presentation on the Earth Alert Personal Warning
system, which is used to gather and distribute warning information.
5. Presentation by QUALCOMM 3:00-3:30
QUALCOMM will give a presentation on its Ku-band, two-way messaging and
position tracking satellite system known as OmniTRACS
6. Wrap-up by Chair 3:30-3:35
WICI, an initiative of the Commerce Department's National Telecommunications
and Information Administration (NTIA), is designed to provide a venue for
the federal government to promote innovative thinking in the development and
utilization of new communications technologies. Specific goals of the WICI
are to identify new wireless technologies and new spectrum management
approaches that will enable federal users to satisfy their communications
needs more effectively and efficiently, and to encourage private sector
innovation and greater public/private cooperation. The WICI Committee,
established as an ad hoc committee of the Interdepartment Radio Advisory
Committee, is composed of senior experts from various federal government
agencies.
http://www.ntia.doc.gov/osmhome/wici/
=> Classified Ads
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GPS receiver picks up satellite signals and uses them to pinpoint your
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FREE 30 days of StormWarn by Email, Pager, PCS/GSM Phone, Business Fax at no
cost*
Sign up today and you'll receive no obligation, no commitment StormWarn . If
you find it helpful, you can then decide to continue service at very low
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=> Links Area
Follow MDS's Framing Frenzy along with us on the Internet at
http://www.mds.mennonite.net
RESOURCES
Lifesaving Resources' web site has a new appearance
http://www.lifesaving.com
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
If you have report or notice that you think would be of interest to the
readers of the SitRep please send an email to: host{at}disastercenter.com
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