NAV OPS/ NRL 91L
____________________________________________________________________
CESAR Group NOTICE 1>>>>>Proprietary Number CAI-20-0830-00 >
DATE: 08/30/00
TIME OF NOTICE: 1259 EDT 1659 Z
CG TURN TIME: 2 Hours 12 Mins.
CESAR Group CF > 60 % {at}1457 EDT 1857 Z.
NOTICE 1
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAI-20-0830-00 > is
issuing NOTICE 1 on this Weather area to the Lesser Antilles as of 1457 EDT
1857 Z. This system has weak inflow but has visible low circulation. The
central quadrant is identifiable through visible imagery, but with infrared it
is somewhat difficult to locate. The weather area has strong convective clouds
and is clearly recognisable by IR imagery. The surface conditions appear to
favour development and the atmospheric environment also is conducive for
further enhancement. The AVN model run of 08300012Z identifies this system and
tracks it progressively on westerly path. The CG Team is in agreement, because
of the strong wind shear approximately 30Kts to the north of the system, which
extends westerly. This shear should influence its pathing and also there are
no negative divergence packages west of the system. Therefore the forecast is
that this system will advance to a westerly course and continue this forward
motion for the next 24 Hours. There is a weak to moderate probability that the
system could strengthen in the next 24 Hours.
1. Present estimated position of Weather Area (+/- 1°)= 13.1°N>-31.9°W as
of 0830 EDT 1230 Z
2. Special Note: Real Time Visible Imagery attached
3. Next NOTICE: 1230 EDT 1630 Z 0901-00
4. This NOTICE: is in effect until 1230 EDT 1630 Z 0901-00
5. Next estimated position on a 12 Hour basis> 13.5°N>-34.9°W
6. Speed in nautical mile (Knots)= 17Kts Direction west>lay>westerly
approximately 283° {at}1457 EDT 1857 Z.
For additional information, emergency preparedness and procedures refer to
You're Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies, the Local or Regional
Met offices and for tracks and probable landfall refer to NRL Monterey or NAV
Ops Atlantic. Text and Imagery of these files at: http://come.to/cesargroup\
THIS NOTICE IS FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
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DATA of Indices {as per our modelling schema} analysis is extrapolated from
data accumulation of Near Real Time (Lag Bias = 2,3,4 Hours) and Real Time
(Lag Bias = 5 min. -1 Hour) visible, water vapour and infrared imagery.
Also from modelling (Lag Bias = -12 Hours and equated to a minus factor for
NRT, Bias for position = 1-2°) schemes. CG Team's initial estimated Central
Position of the investigated weather area is with in an approximate radius of
80 Nautical Miles (1.2°). Bias factor reduced by 0.3°>0.4° when named storm
forms.
1) Topography of Birth Area = Gambia Plain
2) Current Flow Influence = North Equatorial Current
3) Sea Wave Heights = 3-5 ft westerly
4) Sea Level from deviation = weather area <0> Lesser Antilles = +10>20cm
Greater Antilles = from Puerto Rico to west of Jamaica = +20>40cm
5) Sea level pressure = 1008 Mb
6) Sea Surface Temperatures = +28°C>+30°C
7) Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies = <0> +.5°C
8) Storm Speed in Nautical Miles = 17Kts {at} 1500 Z
9) Surface winds (Measured {at} 10 Meters above ground)= 17Kts
10) Low Level Winds (950Mb) = 17Kts {at}1500Z
11) Mid Level Winds (500Mb)= MA 22Kts {at}1500Z
12) High Level Winds (100Mb) = 27 Kts {at} 1500Z
13) Vertical wind shear = weak 5Kts
14) Wind divergence = weak>moderate +5>+10
15) Precipitation in Central Quads = 1.0 inches per hour
16) Precipitation outer (4) Cardinal Quad = .6 inches per hour
17) La Nina = Steady {at} -.5°C>-1.0°C
18) Southern Oscillation or ENSO = increasing -1.97 factored on a <0>baseline
(-)(+) 90 day average
19) Moon = Moving into Perigee > next full moon Sep 13 15:39 2000
20) Global Earth Quakes = +5M = 4
21) Solar Class Eruption = No Activity
22) Space Weather = Asteroid 2000 QW7 Track .032 astronomical Units from earth
Meteor Shower Alpha/Aurigid 6 visual 14 Radio Frequency soundings
CG Team..Dunn
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