I was not responding to your post! I was simply responding to another
post from a fellow CASI member who was commenting on your post! I have
no doubt that you all try very hard to get your data correct! I however
have lived in florida since my birth! (1956) I am not a professionally
trained meteorologist but I do have an insight that others in a distance
may lack! You rely to much on the models! The models are fine but their
accuracy rating is actually very poor! Take Typhoon Jelawat in the West
Pacific! The Joint Typhoon Warning Center had to make numerous
corrections to their plot of Jelawat once they received data from hunter
aircraft flying out of Japan! They predicted it would strike Okinawa
dead on from the east and it turned and went northwest! Result! Ships
that set out to sea in that direction to avoid the storm were caught
right in the middle of it! Now I have not seen any reports of any lost
lives during this incident but it does show how vulnerable forecasts
made using the models can be! The AVN and ships models seem to work well
but I don't think they should be embraced as much as they are!
Quick-Scans and other satellite data should be used more! The eyes don't
lie! You can see the storm on a satellite image! With a model you're
only making an estimate as to where it is based upon tracks of previous
storms! What happens today in nature might not be the same as what
happened ten years ago! Hurricanes and Tropical storms though not human
have personalities of their own! and like people each personality
(Storm) is different! I applaud your effort to inform folks in the
Caribbean of approaching storms but you have to accept that sometimes
you're going to be wrong! No shame in that as long as the next time you
do better! I wish no harm to ever come to anyone! If I could write on
the marquee on my Website all year " There are no tropical systems at
this time" It would not bother me at all!
Art Stevens
Weather World
http://community-2.webtv.net/Artie-Stevens/WeatherWorld/
The Weather Site
http://members.tripod.com/~TheWeatherSite/
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Aug 31 2000 - 21:00:27 EDT