The USA Disaster Situation Report
Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1
National Weather Service Miami Fl
5 PM EDT Thu Aug. 17 2000
Although the associated convection is pretty meager...the strong tropical
wave east of the Lesser Antilles has developed a closed surface circulation
and is therefore upgraded to Tropical Depression Six. Outflow is limited to
the north and west quadrants under light shear from the southeast. Both the
GFDL and ships indicate strengthening...but this is dependent on upper level
southwesterlies ahead of the system getting out of the way.
The initial motion is 290/10. Only a weak ridge is present in the
mid-troposphere flow ahead of the depression...and this track guidance
responds to this by keeping the system north of the Caribbean. However...if
the system is slow to develop deep convection then it could track to the
left of the official forecast...as indicated by the shallow layer BAM.
Forecaster Franklin
Forecast Positions And Max Winds
INITIAL 17/2100Z 14.9N 53.5W 30 KTS
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.3N 54.9W 30 KTS
24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 56.6W 35 KTS
36HR VT 19/0600Z 16.6N 58.2W 45 KTS
48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 60.0W 50 KTS
72HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 64.5W 60 KTS
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Miami Fl
5 PM AST Thu Aug. 17 2000
...Strong Tropical Wave Is Now Tropical Depression Six...
Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that the strong tropical wave to
the east of the Lesser Antilles has developed a closed circulation and is
now tropical depression six.
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of the tropical depression was located near
latitude 14.9 north...longitude 53.5 west or about 555 miles...890 km...east
of Guadeloupe.
The depression is moving toward the west northwest near 12 mph ...19
km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher gusts. The
depression is not well organized at the present time...but only a small
increase in strength would bring the depression to tropical storm status.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.
All interests in the Leeward Islands...northeastward through the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico...should monitor the progress of the depression.
Forecaster Franklin
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