I am going to presume a Depression so close to land qualifies as a Severe
Storm Report. :)
There is immediate disagreement between the ETA
and NGM regarding the amplitude of the 500mb trof
preparing to set up shop over New England. ETA shows
fairly high amplitude, enough so to dig the depression
out of its current location and send it northeast bound
albiet VERY slowly (5-10 knots) after 36 hours. The NGM shows a flat base
which does not dig quite as
far south, leaving TD4 in a completely collapsed steering enviornment
through 48 hours and likely beyond. This would keep the system a threat to
the
Florida and southeast coast through the weekend.
Both models show additional energy dropping into
the northwestern end of the trof at 48 hours which
may cause additional amplification [and some chance
at retrogression back towards the Great Lakes].
I believe the only reason why this little low has persisted for so many days
without dissipation is it's very size. The core cannot be more than 30nm
wide and the wind field covers less than 60nm diameter. Such a small column
of rising air only requires the presence of some convection to be
maintained. Every day the low has undergone a cycle where convection flares
[consequently spinning up the low] then gets sheared off to the north of
west of the center and dies out [causing the low to spin down]. But the
cycle is so consistent that the low has actually very slowly gained strength
because with time the convection flares for longer intervals closer to the
center which is the ideal structure. *IF* the wind shear really does die out
[and both models show this to be true by 24 hours or so] then at some point
one of these convective flareups will cover the center and true tropical
cyclogensis will begin in ernest.
Mike
-----Original Message-----
From: FerroWX17{at}aol.com <FerroWX17{at}aol.com>
To: stormreports{at}casi-internal <stormreports{at}casi-internal>
Date: Wednesday, August 09, 2000 1:21 PM
Subject: Re: [STORMREPORTS] TD 4 forms off the East Florida Coast
I am located in Central Florida (formerly Southeastern Massachusetts) and
with the interest in meteorology, I am certainly following [newly formed]
Tropical Depression Number 4.
Another storm track has Tropical Depression Number 4 moving more westward.
Even still...without a forecast track even toward the west; it certainly is
possible. I do understand there will be a trough moving off the east coast
of
the United States.
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Aug 31 2000 - 21:00:25 EDT