"When Frank Drake launched Project Ozma in 1960 he sought a way to calculate the probability of finding other intelligent races. Here is the equation:

  Though somewhat formidable looking, this is simply the number (N) of technological civilizations in our galaxy, as the product of a string of possibilities:

R*=the average rate in stars per year of star formation in the galaxy. F{p}= the fraction of stars having planets. N{p}= the number of suitable planets per planetary system. F{l} = the fraction of planets on which life starts. F{i} = the fraction of life that evolves to intelligence. F{c} = the fraction of intelligent species to develop the means of communication. L = the longevity (in years) of the technological phase of sunch a society. Drake and other early extraterrestial-life enthusiasts, including Carl Sagan, arrived at a value for N between 100,000 and 1,000,000--still only about one technological civilization per million stars in the Milky Way, which astronomers reckon contains approximately some 200 billion stars."

  Now I have to say, that is a fairy GOOD chance of other intelligent life. How they would arrive on our planet is another matter, as Carl Sagan has been known to say. Nonetheless, the numbers should be astounding: a minimum of 100,000 intelligent beings just in the Milky Way! Multiply that by the number of galaxies in the Universe (infinite?) and you've got a lot of life out there. To me this about settles the case. Now the question is, have they paid us a visit?

  Tune in next month...   -J. Ferrell

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This page was created 5/5/96 by J. Ferrell
This page last modified 5/5/96 by J. Ferrell

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