DISCUSSION
The continuing warm and dry weather of the past two months is resulting
in
increase dry conditions in portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
This
situation is most notable over Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and the
Carolinas. Most of the region has had below normal precipitation during
last
summer and Fall, and continued through the winter and early spring of
this
year. The months of January and early March were the only months that
produced excessive wettness. Winter snow cover was sparce. As a result,
soil
moisture was low as the year's growing season began. Rainfall since
April
1st has been only 50% to 75% of normal. In additions, excessive
temperatures
have acerbated the dry conditions and sunshine has been excessive. This
has
produced evaporation rates well above normal for spring. River and
stream
flows are only 30 to 50 Percent of normal. The Palmer Drought Index
indicate
moderate to extreme drought conditions persist in areas of the
mid-Atlantic
and Northeast.
The origins of the current drought in the mid-Atlantic region can be
traced
to medium and long-term periods. From the medium-term perspective,
abnormal
dryness began during the last week of April and continued well into
June.
Some locations of the southern mid-Atlantic only recieved only1 to 2
inches.
As a result, rainfall during the period from April 24 through June 9
totaled
only about 1 to 2 inches where around 4 to 6 inches would be expected.
Looking at the long-term perspective, abnormal dryness began last July
and
continued through the end of 1998. The precipitation deficits in some
areas
accumulated to around 13 inches during the last 6 months of last year,
when
only about 7 inches of precipitation fell. Despite the recent dryness,
total precipitation since last July remains under two-thirds of normal,
with
the deficit now around 14 inches.
OUTLOOK
A persistent upper level ridge over the eastern U.S. has been
responsible for
the warm and dry conditions. Little change is expected, but there are
indications of cooler and wetter conditions in the 10 day to 2 week
period.
Little or no rain is expected for the next 5 to 7 days. At current,
the
conditions are not yet serious. Interests should be alerted to the
potential
of significant drought conditions if the lack of rainfall continues.