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From: "Mike Reddin" <mreddin{at}nii.net>
To: <casilist{at}weatherwatchers.org>
Subject: Wow, early start to tropical season?
Date: Thu, 20 May 1999 17:29:19 -0400
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<Cut from the Extended Discussion from This afternoon>
...WRN CARRIBEAN/FL/BAHAMAS/SERN U.S. COAST....
AS DISCUSSED ABOVE MODEL INSISTENCY AND INCREASING CONVECTION IN
THE WRN CARRIBEAN FORCE US TO FOLLOW MODELS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL
TYPE SYSTEM TRACKING NEWD TOWARD WRN CUBA SUN AND BECOMING
PICKED UP BY THE BASE OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROF AND MOVING NNEWD AS
A HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM BEFORE BECOMING INCORPORATED IN THE FRONT
COMING OFF THE EAST COAST BY DAY 5 TUES. ORIGIN AREA AND POTENTIAL
TRACK ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR LATE MAY AND JUNE
ESPECIALLY FOR SYSTEMS NOT COMPLETELY TROPICAL. HAVE RAISED POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND THE SERN COAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS WITH ANY MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL OR
TROPICAL TYPE SYSTEMS BEFORE THEY EXIST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SEE
LATEST NHC ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.
</end Blurb>
But the National Hurricane Center has something to add as well..
<NHC>
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3:30 PM EDT THU MAY 20 1999
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA
COULD FORM IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...CUBA AND THE YUCATANPENINSULA.
</NHC>
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