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Date: Sat, 13 Mar 1999 20:04:21 EST
To: casilist{at}weatherwatchers.org
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Subject: Mid-Atlantic Update 3/13/99 @ 5:30pm EST
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Mid-Atlantic Weather Station
http://members.aol.com/herb0412/index.html
Someone will be seeing a good-sized late-winter snowstorm this weekend. Th=
is
system has a lot of energy and precipitation potential is greater than 1".=
In
the dead of winter, this would normally result in more than 1 foot of snow=
.
Even though the atmosphere warmed up Saturday, the effects of dynamic cool=
ing
should encourage the precip to fall as snow in many areas.
The storm's track will be critical as to which areas get all-snow. The sto=
rm
looks as though it will continue eastward along the Gulf coast and then cu=
rve
NE-ward into the KY-WV region; while a secondary low forms somwhere near t=
he
SC-NC coastline and moves NE-ward toward E NC. At that point, the future p=
ath
is uncertain. This future path is key to where the snow-rain line establis=
hes
itself, as well as the precipitation intensity in the mid-Atlantic.
The movement of the low to the mid-Atlantic's southeast should help wrap b=
ack
some colder air on NE-ly winds. Countering effects against "accumulating s=
now"
will be a small influx of warmer air off the Atlantic plus the warmer grou=
nd
and stronger March sun radiation getting through the clouds (yes, even on =
a
cloudy day). Having said this, these are forecasted amounts through 8:00 p=
m
Sunday...
Mostly snow well to the west of I-95 near and in the mountains. Snows of 6=
"+
throughout a good portion of WV, NE-ward through Altoona PA and Hagerstown=
MD
over to Harrisburg and Scranton PA.... wouldn't be at all surprised to see
some 12"+ amounts. Along a Frederick MD-York PA-Allentown PA line about
4"-8". South of this region along a Wilmington DE-BWI-DCA-Charlotte VA li=
ne,
a better chance of snow mixing in with sleet or even changing to rain (but=
it
may also change back to snow later Sunday), so 3"-6" in this region. Along=
a
Salisbury MD-Richmond VA line, about 1"-3". SE of this line, the coastal
regions have the best chance for light accumulations and more rain and win=
d.
The location of the storm track will also play into the precip intensity a=
nd
will have a significant effect on what amounts of snow New England could
receive later Sunday into Monday. As we in the mid-Atlantic were reminded=
of
earlier this week, a shifting storm track of 50 miles can greatly effect s=
now
totals. A footnote to this discussion: There is a distinct possibility the=
low
could track a bit more to the NNE (rather than NE or ENE) later Sunday. If
this occurs, the mid-Atlantic could see another period of backlash moderat=
e to
heavy snow Sunday night, which would significantly raise the above snow to=
tals
beyond the above Sunday 8:00 pm forecasted amounts.
Next week promises a big warm-up, melting the snows away by mid-late week =
with
temps back up to 60=B0 in the mid-Atlantic. Come back here for an update S=
unday,
which may be more of a nowcast, plus a chance to fine-tune accumulations.
Mid-Atlantic Weather Station
http://members.aol.com/herb0412/index.html
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