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From: "Mike Reddin" <mreddin{at}nii.net>
To: <casilist{at}weatherwatchers.org>
Subject: Follow-up on Severe Weather / East Coast Bomb update
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 15:14:03 -0500
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The models are finally converging on a solution for the major weather event
taking
shape for this weekend. A strong shortwave at 500mb is now digging
southeastward
over the Rockies heading for the desert southwest. The shortwave will then
turn
more eastward and approach the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Lee side
cyclogensis
is now occuring in southeastern Colorado, this low will head southeast and
likely
reform in the western Gulf.
Severe weather will take shape Friday night over eastern Texas and work its
way
into Missisippi and Lousianna on Saturday and early Sunday. Florida and
Georgia and perhaps South Carolina will be under the gun for severe weather
and possible tornadic activity on Sunday. During this time the 500mb Trof
begins
to sharpen considerably, increasing Gulf inflow into the system and greatly
destabilizing the atosphere along the central and eastern Gulf coast states
and
southern mid-atlantic. The storm itself will head into Georgia then move
just off
the North Carolina coastline, deepening to about 996mb to 1002mb sometime
Sunday.
It's here the questions remain. The models which were advertising tracks
ranging from the Ohio Valley to Cape Cod have shifted their advertised
tracks eastward. The furthest west model runs the storm up the coastal plain
while the furthest east passes the storm a good 300+ miles south of the
Cape, missing New England completely!
The NCEP branch down in Washington DC is forecasting a "middle of the road"
track in classic nor'easter fashion, passing near the 40N 70W benchmark for
New England. This means the potential of major snows in MA,RI,CT,ME,NH,VT
especially just
away from the coast though even the shoreline is not out of the woods. Some
chance of major snows still for portions of NY, NJ, eastern/central PA with
torrential rains
possibly ending as snow across southern NJ, southeast PA, DE, MD, VA, NC, SC
Could be some significant mountain snows though in NC, VA!
Again big severe weather threat [favorable for tornados] in TX, MS, LA, FL
and possibly SC.
Gradient as storm really begins to strengthen [and possibly "bomb"] along
the mid-atlantic could still range from 40mb to 55mb which would result in
strong gales
or even sustained storm force winds to the north and west of the storm
center.
Really depends on how fast and how much the storm depends, NOGaps takes
the low down to 980mb by the time it reaches northern New England, making
for
a 55mb between a 1035mb high in the Lakes vs. the 980mb low! Hurricane force
gusts would occur along exposed coastal points if that came to pass, but
likely confined to New England as NoGaps does not bomb out the low until it
reaches the Cape.
So it still looks like a green light for severe thunderstorms as expected a
couple
days ago [albiet running a day late in terms of expected speed] but the
track
and intensity of the coastal storm is still in question.
Mike Reddin
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