Tropical Storm Earl formed in the gulf with the 5pm statement from NHC. http://www.weatherwatchers.org/tropical/1998/5/ Interesting AccuWeather discussion this morning hints at possible parallels with Hurricane Elena and the Blizzard of '93: http://www.accuweather.com/hurr98f/atlantic_qx01 They have also added a mirror of the NHC statements (the more the merrier!) http://www.accuweather.com/hurr98f/nhcindex_qx01 More info / technical discussion by Member Mike Reddin: We my "sooner" than later prediction has come true, The National Hurricane Center has upgraded TD5 right to Tropical Storm Earl on the first advisory, max sustained winds 35 knots, pressure 1002mb heading NW at 4 knots. Earl is projected to strike near the Florida panhandle as a minimal hurricane in just 72 hours followed by rapid acceleration up the eastern seaboard. [The track and speed is subject to great debate between UKMET/NOGAPS vs. AVN/GFDL. I will update the casi.homesite.net with the scoop this evening if possible. Because conditions are forecasted to become favorable for development with SST of 32C, keep an eye out for *possible* explosive tropical cyclogensis to occur within 48 hours. One thing for sure though, Earl promises to be a very VERY wet storm system with 6-12"+ rainfall amounts anticipated on the Gulf Coast states within a couple hundred miles of where Earl makes landfall [if??]. Accuweather is talking about a possible parallel with Hurricane Elena, which some of you may recall was a bear to forecast! Let's hope that does not end up the case. In summation, the ETA model shows a slow drift north for Earl with subtle signs of a NE turn after 48 hours. The AVN is similar with a northward drift, turning NE at 48-60 hours and striking the Florida panhandle in 72 hours. Last night's MRF carried the system right up the eastern seaboard as a "coastal hugger", with an acceleration that would carry it to New England by the end of the week! NoGaps and the UKMET keep the system drifting aimlessly [literally] in the central Gulf. The NHC/TPC's GFDL model is initialized off the AVN so if the AVN initialization is in error it can carry out to the tropical models as well, most of these models take Earl to the Florida Panhandle or Mississippi coast then accelerating NE. The key to the path is a digging trough at 500mb over the Great Lakes and several strong shortwaves roating through the trough. The AVN paints the picture of a strong short-wave now diving into the upper Midwest as picking up Earl, while NOGAPS lets the short-wave pass the storm by, leaving it in a collapsed steering environment. Quite honestly either scenario is viable, so stay tuned for updates. Mike Reddin -- ============================================================== Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist/Web Dev. - j{at}weatherwatchers.org Central Atlantic Storm Investigators - www.weatherwatchers.org "They're not who we're looking for; they're just meteorologists- storm chasers." --Peter Watts, "Millennium" || ICQ No. 136832 ||