Hurricane Bonnie has become a Major Hurricane this morning - Category III. She has already equalled the maximum wind speed of Fran, 115mph, and will probably still increase in strength. Current predictions are for slow strengthening to add another 10 knots through 72 hours. Right now she is "wobbling" or "meandering" which means that she has taken a jog to the North temporarily, but don't let it fool you, she's only feeling the effects of a trough pressing down on her from the North and will likely resume a WNW track later today. If you don't believe me check out this extreme example of "meandering" - Hurricane Roxanne from 1995: http://wxp.atms.purdue.edu/hurricane/1995/ROXANNE/track.gif And finally, never assume anything... they can do plenty of other strange things, such as 90 degree turns: http://wxp.atms.purdue.edu/hurricane/1995/SEBASTIEN/track.gif or loop-de-loops: http://wxp.atms.purdue.edu/hurricane/1996/MARCO/track.gif The longrange climatological hurricane tracking model Trantech has now moved estimates of landfall to Cape Hatteras only. The regular weather models are producing varying results today because they had to be "started" with a zero motion for Bonnie. The National Hurricane Center's official track is for Bonnie to move towards SE NC (saying nothing of what it might do before it hits as their forecast only goes out 72 hours) and the AccuWeather prediction is similar with a little more of an eastward track. In any case we won't have to worry about landfall until Wednesday. A Heavy Surf advisory is up for N. Fl and GA today because Bonnie is big enough to generate large waves hundreds of miles out. It will likely be added to the Carolina beaches when Bonnie starts moving again. Unfortunately the public continues to be confused, and it runs the gamut from being too prepared to not enough. People are "boarding up" in Miami, where of course the chance of landfall is basically Zero at this time. In Daytona Beach a man was quoted as saying "People aren't doing much - it's still 700 miles away isn't it? Wait until it gets about 100 miles and you'll see some changes." If the storm was within 100 miles of him there would be changes - but to the buildings and the trees - for they would have been under Tropical Storm force winds for 75 miles already and the area would have been evacutated. The Tropical Wave to the SE of Bonnie looks very impressive on satellite, but a check of the stations on the islands that it is moving over this morning yielded sustained winds of only 18mph maximum. http://www.weatherwatchers.org/tropical/surface/index2.html -- ============================================================== Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist/Web Dev. - j{at}weatherwatchers.org Central Atlantic Storm Investigators - www.weatherwatchers.org "Dust will make you blind, nothing you can find; Running scared ! Tornado !" --Vovoid, "Tornado" || ICQ No. 136832 ||