All sources seem to point to a large outbreak of severe weather in the Mid CASI region Tomorrow. The National Weather Service in State College PA says in their afternoon Forecast Discussion today: "HARD TO RECALL A MORE DANGEROUS SITUATION." Now where it will be is a subject of fierce discussion. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Moderate Risk for most of the Mid-Atlantic states last night for tomorrow, then trimmed the area back to only the middle Appalachians this morning (see graphic http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/risks.DAY2.gif where the dotted lines are Previous risks). Earthwatch still had most of the SPC's previous Moderate risk as Moderate as of this afternoon. At the very least the entire CASI Region except for the Deep South will be under a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms on Sunday, with the Appalachians in a Moderate Risk. For all of these graphics on one page, see http://casi.simplenet.com/j/oldsite/wx/severe.html Most NWS offices in the Mid-Atlantic region are including the risk in their discussions and in their forecasts are listing "possibility of Severe Thunderstorms". It is still early in the forecast period for these storms. The SPC is "not confidant" of their forecast for the New England and Mid-Atlantic area. The only place that they are confidant of Severe Weather is "Eastern TN and KY" at this time. http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~spc/products/outlook/dy2.htm CASI Members in these areas should be ready to take action if Severe Weather should strike. If you are planning to chase or spot tomorrow make sure that you have enough supplies on hand for recording the events. I know that usually my worst problem during severe weather is usually my lack of preparation. Emergency preparedness officials in these areas should be aware that their help may be needed tomorrow and tomorrow night if the storms should strike their area. The strength of the storms tomorrow will be seen in their severity and the large area which will contain them, however they will still probably be scattered in the area and not everyone may see a storm. On another note, I will be putting up a report on the CASI site later today or tomorrow on my Investigation of an F0 tornado in Bellefonte PA. The tornado occurred yesterday with a widespread outbreak of Severe weather in PA and the entire NE US. I was not there at the time, I was about 10 miles south, but I took video and talked to people there this morning. Greg Drollinger also has additional information on the storms in his area, including an investigation of downed trees in that area. I will link to any information that he has also. -- ============================================================== Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist/Web Dev. - j{at}weatherwatchers.org Central Atlantic Storm Investigators - www.weatherwatchers.org "And here a twister comes... here comes the twister." --Talking Heads || ICQ No. 136862 ||