If you haven't seen it yet, Dr. Gray, famous hurricane forecaster from
Colorado State Univ., put out his spring forecast this morning. He predicts
a hurricane season near normal (that is if El Nino doesn't mess up his
forecast like last year).
Jesse Ferrell wrote:
> ABSTRACT
>
> Current trends in the relevant global climate conditions lack any
> dominating feature likely to cause either a highly
> active or inactive Atlantic hurricane season this summer. Rather,
> information obtained through March 1998
> indicates that the upcoming 1998 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to
> experience about average hurricane
> activity. We project that total season activity will include 10 named
> storms (average is 9.3), 50 named storm
> days (average is 47), 6 hurricanes (average is 5.8), 20 hurricane days
> (average is 24), 2 intense (category
> 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3), 4 intense hurricane days (average is
> 4.7) and a hurricane destruction
> potential (HDP) of 65 (average is 71). Whereas net 1998 tropical cyclone
> activity is expected to be about 95
> percent of the long term average, conditions this year should be
> distinctively more active than 1997 but less
> active than the very busy hurricane seasons of 1995 and 1996. This early
> April prediction indicates a greater
> possibility of a slightly more active season than did our early December
> (1997) forecast of 1998 hurricane
> activity. An important element entering this April forecast update is
> more evidence that the very strong
> 1997-1998 El Niņo will be largely dissipated by the start of the
> (climatologically) active part of the hurricane
> season (i.e., mid-August). Additional later forecasts updates for 1998
> will be issued on 5 June and 6 August
> 1998. A post-season review and critique of this forecast will be made in
> late November 1998. These forecasts,
> as well as those for past seasons, are also available on the World Wide
> Web at the access location given on the
> cover page.
>
> http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/
--
==============================================================
Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist - j{at}weatherwatchers.org
Central Atlantic Storm Investigators - www.weatherwatchers.org
"A tornado? Why wasn't it dissipated by the weather
modification net?" --Jean-Luc Picard || ICQ No. 136862 ||
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If you haven't seen it yet, Dr. Gray, famous hurricane forecaster from
Colorado State Univ., put out his spring forecast this morning. He
predicts a hurricane season near normal (that is if El Nino doesn't mess
up his forecast like last year).
Jesse Ferrell wrote:
ABSTRACT
Current trends in the relevant global climate conditions lack any
dominating feature likely to cause either a highly
active or inactive Atlantic hurricane season this summer. Rather,
information obtained through March 1998
indicates that the upcoming 1998 Atlantic hurricane season is likely
to
experience about average hurricane
activity. We project that total season activity will include 10 named
storms (average is 9.3), 50 named storm
days (average is 47), 6 hurricanes (average is 5.8), 20 hurricane days
(average is 24), 2 intense (category
3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3), 4 intense hurricane days (average
is
4.7) and a hurricane destruction
potential (HDP) of 65 (average is 71). Whereas net 1998 tropical cyclone
activity is expected to be about 95
percent of the long term average, conditions this year should be
distinctively more active than 1997 but less
active than the very busy hurricane seasons of 1995 and 1996. This
early
April prediction indicates a greater
possibility of a slightly more active season than did our early December
(1997) forecast of 1998 hurricane
activity. An important element entering this April forecast update
is
more evidence that the very strong
1997-1998 El Niño will be largely dissipated by the start of
the
(climatologically) active part of the hurricane
season (i.e., mid-August). Additional later forecasts updates for 1998
will be issued on 5 June and 6 August
1998. A post-season review and critique of this forecast will be made
in
late November 1998. These forecasts,
as well as those for past seasons, are also available on the World
Wide
Web at the access location given on the
cover page.
--
==============================================================
Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist - j{at}weatherwatchers.org
Central Atlantic Storm Investigators - www.weatherwatchers.org
"A tornado? Why wasn't it dissipated by the weather
modification net?" --Jean-Luc Picard
|| ICQ No. 136862 ||
--------------D29C2E3A5A7ABCA5CD310633--