vortex{at}interpath.com wrote:
>
> Powell forwarded the SPC outlook; I'll add what RDU had to say this morning
> at 10:10:
>
> 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AIRMASS FRONT EXTENDING FROM S OF RIC
> TO NEAR DAN AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO NRN GA AND BMX. SKIES ARE
> MOSTLY CLEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING BEHIND THE
> FRONT WELL MODELED IN RH CROSS SECTIONAL DEPICTIONS FROM YESTERDAY.
>
> PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO VERY APPARENT ATTACHED TO A LOW CENTER
> BETWEEN HATTERAS AND ELIZABETH CITY AND RUNNING SW THROUGH THE LOWER
> COASTAL PLAIN INTO SRN GA. CAPE IS IN AMPLE SUPPLY ALONG THIS TROUGH
> AND SHOULD STIMULATE EARLY DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
>
> MESO VORTICITY CENTER WITH ORIGINS IN DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FROM
> ACROSS SRN MS-AL LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN CROSSING NRN GA AND MAY HELP
> FOCUS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
>
> 40% POP IN THE EAST SHOULD HOLD AS FAR AS RAIN COVERAGE...BUT
> THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HEALTHY IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME
> WORDING TO THAT EFFECT WILL BE ADDED TO ALL EASTERN ZONES.
>
> Just took a look at sfc obs. Heat index at 118 in Fayetteville with a
> dewpoint of 82. Wow! But the low center does appear to be farther north
That kind of weather reminds me why I'm moving to PA ;)
> you have to get up to Elizabeth City to find easterly winds. I'm gonna go
> out on a limb and say look out Norfolk!
>
Yeah, looking at the Streamline analysis (see
http://www.weatherwatchers.org/forecast/) looks like the Low is around
Greenville.
> Interesting vort center just west of me (which both discussions also
> mentioned). I'm getting my stuff ready too, just in case. :) But I fear I
> may be too far west, and I'm feeling lazy...
>
I'm not only lazy but my days are numbered for packing up all my stuff.
I think I may let this one go unless convection looks like it's going to
develop near me. Which it doesn't so far. May be only at the coast as
you feared, Cliff.
Update: 2pm radar shows some stuff around New Bern finally.
> Cliff Nelson
> Chapel Hill
--
////////////////////////////////////
| J. Ferrell j{at}weatherwatchers.org |
| Carolina Area Storm Investigators |
| http://www.weatherwatchers.org/ |
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\