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From: admin-auto{at}weathermatrix.net
Date: Wed May 11 2005 - 05:57:14 EDT
-- THIS IS A *SUMMARY ONLY* TO SEE COMPLETE ARTICLE PLEASE SEE BOTTOM OF EMAIL --
HEADLINES:
Four Days Of Severe Thunderstorms From Great Plains Into The Ohio Valley;
Active 500MB Longwave Pattern Promises Another Major Convective Event Next Week
EXPECTED NORTH AMERICA SEVERE OR EXTREME WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS:
twisters or by residents of the prime threat area. See the SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
below for details on the progress, expanse, and risk potential of intense
convection during the near term.
I should mention that unlike many disturbances at this time of year, the
Front Range system will not really weaken. Joined by an incoming shortwave from
the northern branch, the reenergized cyclone will blast an area from the
Missouri Valley into the Corn Belt and lower Great Lakes. The warm ridge complex over
the Dixie states will keep the convection above Interstate 64, while the very
cold domain in central and eastern Canada should prevent severe weather above
a Detroit MI....Erie PA....Dover DE line. In fact, the formation of a rare
spring season mPk Grand Banks vortex near NWF will likely prevent any real
precipitation from occurring in New England through Sunday morning. Under the mTw
anticyclone, many communities in the Cotton Belt could surpass 80 deg F with
abundant sunshine.
Another extreme is likely to occur within the cold sector of the High Plains
low during the next 24-36 hours. With new incoming colder air, heavy wet snow
is probable in E WY....E MT....W ND....W SD....NE Panhandle. This being
spring, the snowfall could factor into power and travel problems due to its wet,
heavy character. Where temperatures will not support frozen types, excessive
rains may develop from the Columbia River Basin into parts of the Upper Midwest.
Never a dull moment, eh?
Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Models
(red dot indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
WRF RUC NAM. NAM 06z NAM 18z NGM GFS-5
RGEM. SREF MM5 CRAS UKMET COAMPS BAMex
Rutgers University Forecast Model Animator
Tabular NGM and NAM FOUS Output
______________________________________________________________________
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Snow And Ice Cover
SSD Snow Products Page
Cryosphere Today - Current Sea Ice and Snow Cover Data
U.S. Recent Snowfall & Snowdepth Maps
___________________________________________________________________________
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24
hours)
STORM CHASER Favored Location: Beloit KS
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Tornadoes)
NE CO....C, S NE....C, S IA....N, C IL....N MO....N KS
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
TX Panhandle....W OK....C, S KS
(Thursday)
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Tornadoes)
N CO....S NE....S IA....N, C IL....N, C MO....KS....W OK....TX Panhandle
(Friday)
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Tornadoes)
N, C TX....W, C AR....C, E OK....SE KS....C, E MO....IL....IN....S Lower MI
S ONT Peninsula....W PA....OH....N KY
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
N NV....S ID....N UT....N CO....WY....S MT....C, S SD....C, S IA....NE....KS
W OK....TX Panhandle
(QPF 1-3")
______________________________________________________________________
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