[STORMREPORTS] Frigid Weather Headed For Florida And Elsewhere
Hi Ron,
Okay on your 32 deg. low temp. this morning in Holder. My low temp. here in Plant City this morning was 40 deg. with a wind chill of 34 deg. and a dewpoint of 32 deg. BTW a SWFWMD friend in Brooksville had 28 deg. yesterday morning to match my 28 deg. here in Plant City.
I really appreciate your weather analysis/forecast input, you are truly an excellent weather forecaster! I just took a quick look at the latest GFSX run and it has warmed 850 mb temps over north and central Florida by a couple of deg. F since last run. The GFSX MOS dropped the 6 foot temp. at Brooksville 10 deg. from 31 to 21 deg. and raised it from 17 to 18 deg. F at Crestview.
Yes it also looks like the chance of snow is decreasing for central Florida but increasing for north Florida. Also between the surface low that will track up the east coast in conjunction with lake effect and orographic, lot's of snow will be falling for much of the eastern 1/3 of the U.S.
I will look at more data closer when I have more time later in the day. One has to be careful not to waffle with every model run while realizing that the GFSX does have an inherent cold bias, while at the same time taking note that the more consistently accurate NOGAPS is in agreement with the GFSX. Plus teleconnection signals still point to very cold weather in Florida.
It still looks like we will see min. temps. up to 30 deg. below normal in Florida and the eastern 1/3 of the U.S. during the Sunday-Tuesday 12/19-21/04 period, with a significant advection freeze event into south central Florida peninsula but not as bad as December 1988 and 1983. It also remains to be seen if the event will be a one day screaming advection freeze only like in December 1983 or a second day also with a radiational cooling freeze.
And yes we also will see another even colder Arctic air shot down the Great Plains all the way to south Texas around Christmas Eve-Christmas Day and it remains to be seen as to whether this shot will make it into Florida. With time the Arctic blasts will also retrogress back west, eventually making it into the Seattle to L.A. corridor.
My long forecasted flip in the weather pattern to cold in the east is turning out to be a doosy!
Take Care,
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Thomas,
See the models have backed off slightly for super cold air in here. The gfs is confused I think while the nogaps still brings us a cold shot. It doesn't appear that it will last long though. Maybe one pretty cool night. Seems funny to have such high amplitude systems this time of year. Almost springlike if it weren't for the super cold air. Looking at the 144 hour looks like SoCal is really going to get nailed. Snow for the Grapevine and a west coast arctic outbreak. Icy streets in Portland again.
Meanwhile back at the ranch, snow chances appear to be diminishing but still a slight possibility.
Just my thoughts. Didn't quite freeze here this morning... 32.1 around 4 AM then a warmup.
Peace & Serenity,
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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Thu Dec 16 2004 - 08:21:03 EST
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: Ron Bujok
To: kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com
Sent: Thursday, December 16, 2004 7:10 AM
Subject: frigid
Ron
http://www.rbee44.com
How's my weather? http://wx.rbee44.com
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