[STORMREPORTS] Snow In Deep SE U.S. Including FL?
The high temperature here in Plant City, FL topped out at 80 deg. today and the highest dewpoint hit 67 deg!!!
BUT per my previous post, the shift to a colder and wetter weather pattern is moving along rather quickly. The weak El Nino (actually the Southern Oscillation Index) recently tanked as low as -20 on the arbitrary scale, which would translate into a wet period beginning now and lasting for a week or two. But the SOI has now rapidly moved back to zero (0). This means that there is now a better chance for the subtropical jet to phase with the polar/arctic jet and allow arctic air to make it deep into the S.E. U.S. including Florida, as happened in December 1983, 1989 and 2000. Looking at other weather signals, it appears that the Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO) and also a negative Arctic Oscillation (-AO) will all coincide locking in cold weather for the second half of December 2004 for the eastern 2/3's of the U.S.
I have little faith in long range weather forecast model output but one is actually forecasting subfreezing daytime temperatures, sleet, snow and brutal cold between San Antonio, Corpus Christi and Houston on December 23-24 and then eastward to the Florida peninsula north of Tampa and Orlando on December 24-25, like occurred in December 23-25, 1989 here in Florida.
Am I forecasting the probability of a deep freeze and snow once again for Florida during the last two weeks of December 2004? NO OF COURSE NOT. But it has happened before, namely in 1989, 1983 and 1962. Teleconnection weather signals do point to a "White Christmas" in the deep south and parts of Florida as increasingly possible though!!!
Take Care,
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.
Also as Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
----- Original Message -----
As all know we have had mild weather so far in Florida in Fall 2004. But as I've warned for a good while now this pattern will come to an end, rather abruptly at that. The weather pattern will do a complete flip beginning on Saturday 12/11/04 to much colder and wetter and will last for the next 15-20 days.
The jet stream is currently transitioning into a Pacific North America (PNA) pattern. That means a big high pressure ridge in Alaska down through western Canada and the U.S. and a big trough in the eastern 2/3's of North America including Florida. We will also see a big ridge build in the Caspian Sea region of Europe.
This pattern will open the door to polar and arctic air masses to include the "over the pole" Siberian express deep into the SE U.S. as happened in December 1983 and 1989 and 2000. BUT at the same time we will see El Nino continue to slowly strengthen. This means undercutting low latitude winter storm systems and lot's of precipitation across the deep SW/S/SE U.S. Hopefully the arctic/polar jet streams will not phase with the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet and the coldest weather will stay north of the Florida peninsula.
How does that Bing Crosby song go?! "I'm dreaming of a white Christmas".
Take Care,
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Thu Dec 09 2004 - 16:20:44 EST
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
From: Thomas Giella KN4LF
To: a Weathervine eGroup ; a Storm Reports E-list
Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2004 10:57 AM
Subject: Mild WX Coming To An End In FL
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
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