[STORMREPORTS] Fw: Future Matthew Brewing In SW Caribbean
I first began discussing a possible future Tropical Cyclone Matthew back on Friday September 25th, 2004. Well take a look at this satellite image at http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/Tropics.gif . We definitely have a fledgling tropical depression ESE-S of Jamaica. The future strength and path of this
Take Care,
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Looking at the latest visible satellite imagery we have a disturbed area of weather in the SW Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua and Panama.
In any event a couple of days or so ago I began mentioning the probability of a Western Caribbean/Gulf Of Mexico tropical cyclone threat. October-November is basically our local tropical cyclone season. Basically we get splitting and SW backing into the GOM of mid level cold core longwave troughs and associated surface cold fronts and subtropical jet stream mid level shortwave troughs. These temperate mid latitude non tropical weather systems sit out over the still very warm North America ocean waters and transform and grow into warm core tropical systems.
Bottom line we need to watch this disturbance because it will "possibly" grow into a future Tropical Cyclone Matthew and threaten all of the Gulf Coast, but particularly the mid and eastern Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Key West. To jog our memories, remember CAT 5 Opal in 1995? She was a local home grown tropical cyclone.
Take Care,
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Well I survived Florida hurricane strike #3 of this season. I lost trees, fencing and suffered lanai screen damage. My surviving oak trees are 2/3's of their former height and my yard and immediate neighborhood is full of downed branches and leaves. Deleafing and debranching of trees was so intense that I could hardly identify my street from surrounding yards, as there was a pretty uniform carpet of green and brown everywhere. Most importantly though I had no structural damage and got my electric power back after only nine hours. Structural, sign and tree damage in the Plant City area is widespread and power is out to 90% of the area. I have a family member 4 miles north of town that lost a large manufactured home to the wind. The roof was blown off and whole structure was blown off of it's foundation.
As far as the numbers here in SW Plant City 25 miles east of Tampa, my strongest measured wind speed was 66 mph sustained gusting to 76 mph at 10:45 am. I had repeated wind gusts above 70 mph for approximately 5 hours. Lowest barometric pressure was 28.73" and rainfall total was 4.79" but with the rain blowing sideways for hours and debris in all three rain gauges the total is under measured. The center of then CAT 1 Jeanne arrived over my location between 1:00 and 2:00 pm. Rain and wind did slacken and the sky brightened but never cleared in any manner. Pressure bottomed out during this time period and the temperature and dewpoint spiked upwards, demonstrating that this was indeed a warm core beast.
Rainfall totals in the region along the track of the eyewall totaled 4-8". Highest winds were in the 90+ mph range over in Lake Wales in SE Polk County. Lake Wales also took direct hits from Frances and Charley!!! The highest measured wind gust that I could find in the immediate Tampa Bay area was 78 mph at St. Petersburg. Very few tornadoes occurred on the peninsula, as instability in advance of the cyclone was nil. As a matter of fact shortly before the wind picked up to gale force at approximately 4:45 am my dewpoint sill hovered in the upper 60's, thanks to lingering dry air form the fall season's first cold front. Some tornadoes did occur over non peninsular north Florida.
Using my 4.85" 36 hour rainfall total from Hurricane Jeanne, I have now received 14.47" in September 2004 and 64.87" for the year. Between 1931 and 2003 normal yearly rainfall averages out at 54.00" in Plant City. On top of 64.87" for 2004, I measured 70.40" in 2003, +16.39" above normal, 90.11" in 2002, +38.94" above normal and 62.36" in 2001, +11.19" above normal. So you get the picture on how waterlogged the central peninsula watersheds have been for years. So our river basins can look forward to more severe flooding in future days, with some all time record highs possible.
Taking a brief look at the tropics, GADS!!! T.S. Lisa is still kicking and she "may" still find a way to threaten the S.E. U.S. coast in future days, ala Jeanne. As we are currently undergoing a weather pattern change for pressure systems and temperature across North America, Lisa is probably the last Cape Verde tropical cyclone that "may" reach North America this season. BUT we are now moving into the Gulf Of Mexico/western Caribbean Sea phase of the 2004 tropical cyclone season. During the next week we will have to watch for GOM tropical cyclone development that will threaten the Gulf Coast of the U.S. INCLUDING FLORIDA.
Next. This is not a brag fest because I'm a humble person with no need for ego stroking after 31 years of space and atmospheric weather forecasting and consulting experience. As a matter of fact I have turned down numerous interview requests by the news media this summer because I'm supposed to be retired. But I've been asked repeatedly for a synopsis of my tropical cyclone forecasts for 2004 so here it is. My forecast score for tropical cyclone forecasting in 2004 is 4-1-0 and that comes while in professional retirement. Yes I've only bothered with tropical cyclones threatening Florida because of 100's of email requests received from old customers and friends and foes.
Win #1. I nailed the formation, track, strength and landfall location of T.S. Bonnie perfectly at three days out.
Win #2. I nailed the formation, track, strength and landfall location of CAT 4 Charley very well. My landfall location forecast five days in advance was at Tampa Bay. Three days in advance it was Venice in Sarasota County south of Tampa Bay and he went ashore in Charlotte County less than 50 miles to the south of Venice. I still shudder at Charley because if he had not of made the right turn into Charlotte County due to speed divergence, he would have slammed into Tampa Bay as a CAT 5 with 100+ billion $$$ in damage and thousands of drowning deaths.
Win #3. I nailed the formation, track, strength and landfall location of CAT 4-3 Frances perfectly at five days out.
Loss #1. I nailed the formation, track, strength and landfall location of CAT 5 Ivan very well. BUT I consider it a loss because at three days out I forecasted a landfall at Siesta Key, FL, WRONG because he went ashore between Mobile, AL, and Pensacola, FL. At two days out I forecasted a landfall at Apalachicola, FL, WRONG AGAIN. At one day out I did correctly forecast a landfall east of Mobile at Foley, AL when virtually all of the models forecasted a landfall west of Mobile, AL but one day in advance for an accurate landfall does not cut it in my book.
Win #4. I nailed the formation, track and landfall location of CAT 3 Jeanne perfectly at 5 days out. My strength forecast was off a little because I thought that she would briefly make it to CAT 4 status before landfall. She tried but ran out of room. I think Jeanne was one of my best overall forecasts ever in 31 years. I blew the pants off all but three of the forecast models and the NHC well in advance. Simple basic synoptic analysis made it VERY OBVIOUS well in advance that Jeanne would not make an abrupt right turn northward before or along the east coast of Florida. However I did forecast Jeanne to briefly enter the Gulf Of Mexico as far north as Bayport in Hernando County and that was WRONG. She did pass just east of Bayport and almost entered the GOM near Yankeetown but her center stayed on land I think.
Now I just want to go fishing and forget about hurricanes for the next 40 years.
Take Care,
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Fri Oct 01 2004 - 11:52:54 EDT
disturbance is all a matter of timing. So everyone from Brownsville, TX to Key West, FL should watch closely. Right now it looks like LA-TX has the best chance with this one but that is subject to change.
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf{at}arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
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