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From: admin-auto{at}weathermatrix.net
Date: Sat May 08 2004 - 05:57:00 EDT
-- THIS IS A *SUMMARY ONLY* TO SEE COMPLETE ARTICLE PLEASE SEE BOTTOM OF EMAIL --
HEADLINES:
Thunderstorms An Ongoing Concern For Much Of Lower 48 States Through May 13;
Surge Of Tropical Air Likely To Dominate Eastern Two-Thirds Of Nation Next Week
EXPECTED NORTH AMERICA SEVERE OR EXTREME WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS:
(see SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK below) across the Upper Midwest into ONT, N OH, NW
PA, and W NY. Since this is a genuine midlatitude cyclone (with a 24 unit lobe
of vorticity, much difluence, and steep pressure falls in association with the
storm track), communities in the upper Mississippi Valley will be at a
sizable risk for tornadoes. Scary thought: the Twin Cities MN metro area will be
very near the greatest severe risk tomorrow afternoon and evening.
The very warm, humid regime will probably remain shut out of the Northeast
for much of the near term. On Monday, however, as the Canadian low moves into ME
and N Br, the warm front could reach NY State before another shot of cP
values drops out of ONT after 72 hours. The leading edge of the colder air should
not get below 40 N Latitude, and will, with some help from mesoscale
disturbances moving from the western states into Appalachia, see locally heavy to severe
thunderstorms develop along it.
The trough complex now located off the West Coast should shift into the
Intermountain Region by Day 3. Very intense UVVs associated with this system will
combine with orographic and diurnal effects to produce ongoing hail,
microburst, and tornado threats in much of the West where cT air is not dominant. This
feature will be a key player in weather for the longer term over the Great
Plains and Midwest.
Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Models
(red dot indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
Tabular NGM and ETA FOUS Output
RUC ETA. ETA 06z ETA 18z NGM GFS-5.
RGEM SREF MM5 CRAS UKMET COAMPS BAMex
______________________________________________________________________
Online Weather Information Guides
WW2010 Helper Section Index
Weather Calculator
COMET Case Study Library on the WWW
Index Of Storm Tracks
Climatology
Climate Normals For The U.S.
Oscillations And Climatic Teleconnections
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Plymouth State Weather Center
U.S. National Satellite Perspectives
Infrared Visible Vapor
Hawaii Infrared Hawaii Visible
Alaska Infrared Alaska Visible Alaska Vapor
Canada Satellite Perspectives
Environment Canada Satellite Image Directory
Satellite Animations And Multi-Channel Imagery
RAMSDIS ONLINE
NOAA Polar Satellite Views Around North America
Quicklook Swaths Browser
AVHRR Dynamic Tracking Windows
Milan Konecny's NOAA Satellite Views
WTOC-TV HRPT Images
National Radar Summaries
National NEXRAD Composite
Environment Canada Radar Summary
Numerical Model Temperature Forecasts
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Links To Current Weather Conditions
Around North America
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Michigan Electronic Library: Space and Astronomy Index
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Upper Air Analyses Around North America
Upper Air Data From University Of Wyoming Canada ETA Soundings
Aviation Weather Analyses And Forecasts
Soundings from Commercial Airliners
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Clear Air Turbulence Index Forecasts
Current Icing Potential (CIP)
ADDS - Turbulence
Environment Canada Aviation Products
National Soil Moisture Levels
Palmer Index Map (For Soil Moisture)
Drought Monitor
______________________________________________________________________
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24
hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
E NE....IA....S WI....N IL....N IN....S Lower MI....extreme N OH
NW PA....W NY....ONT Peninsula
STORM CHASER TARGET CITY: Denison IA
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
E MT....W ND....W SD
(Sunday)
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
N NE....N IA....E SD....SE ND....MN....WI....MI....N IN....N OH....NW PA
W NY....C, S ONT
STORM CHASER TARGET CITY: New Ulm MN
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
E NE....IA....S WI....N IL....N IN....S Lower MI....extreme N OH
NW PA....W NY....ONT Peninsula
(QPF 1-3")
______________________________________________________________________
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