[STORMREPORTS] WeatherAmerica Extreme Wx Headlines For Thursday, May 06
-- THIS IS A *SUMMARY ONLY* TO SEE COMPLETE ARTICLE PLEASE SEE BOTTOM OF EMAIL --
Sharp Temperature Boundary Located from Nebraska To Mid-Atlantic Region Will
EXPECTED NORTH AMERICA SEVERE OR EXTREME WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS:
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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Friday)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
Isolated Locations In
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From: admin-auto{at}weathermatrix.net
Date: Thu May 06 2004 - 05:57:00 EDT
HEADLINES:
Be Focus For Severe Thunderstorms Next 48 Hours; Hot, Humid Air Stays Put Over
Southern Two-Thirds Of U.S. Into Early Next Week And Could Enhance Potential
For Intense Convection As West Coast Trough Complex Moves Into Great Plains,
Midwest Around Or After May 11
the affected area (see SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK and HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK below for
details).
The temperature differential in question is expected to nudge slightly
southward tomorrow, reacting to the formation of stronger shortwaves in the 500MB
flow across southern Canada. If you drew a straight line from Lincoln NE to
Ocean City MD, and then included communities 100 miles either side of that arc,
that is probably the best threat zone for severe thunderstorms. The difference
tomorrow will be the addition of an impulse from the trough complex just off
the West Coast. When this impulse interacts with the unstable air and the
thermal boundary, a derecho is likely to develop over IA and progress into S PA....S
NJ....DE....MD....DC....N, C VA during Friday and Saturday. Whereas today
will feature a somewhat incoherent pattern of lifting and forcing along the
front, tomorrow could bring a more dangerous potential for damaging winds and
tornadoes, particularly where the thunderstorm arc bisects the shift from mT to cP
values.
Yet another disturbance will push out of the trough complex over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday, this time targeting NE....S IA....N MO before
spreading eastward. The cluster of cumulonimbi forecast to develop on Friday may be
exiting the Mid-Atlantic states on Day 3, having the effect of dragging
cooler, more stable values to a Red Oak IA....Cincinnati OH....Wallops Island VA
line. So the Interstate 70 and 64 corridors could be hit with severe weather
after 72 hours.
With a flat ridge (not technically a subtropical high, but serving the same
purpose) in command from CA and NV into the Southeast, unseasonably warm and
dry conditions are probable over the southern two-thirds of the U.S. The trough
off of the West Coast will be moving near enough to shore to perhaps trigger
heavy/severe thunderstorms from N CA into WA tomorrow and Saturday, but the
full effects of the trough complex will most likely hold off until the medium
range.
Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Models
(red dot indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
Tabular NGM and ETA FOUS Output
RUC ETA. ETA 06z ETA 18z NGM GFS-5.
RGEM SREF MM5 CRAS UKMET COAMPS BAMex
______________________________________________________________________
WW2010 Helper Section Index
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Upper Air Data From University Of Wyoming Canada ETA Soundings
Soundings from Commercial Airliners
Aviation Weather Center (AWC)
Clear Air Turbulence Index Forecasts
Current Icing Potential (CIP)
ADDS - Turbulence
Environment Canada Aviation Products
Palmer Index Map (For Soil Moisture)
Drought Monitor
______________________________________________________________________
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24
hours)
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
extreme E NE....C, S IA....S WI....N IL....N IN....S Lower MI....N OH
NW PA....W NY....C, S ONT Peninsula
STORM CHASER TARGET CITIES: Iowa City IA and Angola IN
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
extreme E NE....C, S IA....N, C IL....IN....NE KY....C, S OH
SW PA....WV....VA....DC....MD
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Landspouts)
N CA....OR....WA
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
extreme E NE....C, S IA....S WI....N IL....N IN....S Lower MI....N OH
NW PA....W NY....C, S ONT Peninsula
(QPF 1-2")
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