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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Fri Dec 19 2003 - 15:06:49 EST
Florida Daily Weather Discussion
#2003-67 Published 12/18/03 At 11:00 AM
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at:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
The latest dry cold front is currently racing across the state bringing
renewed cold air advection. Actual in my opinion dry air advection would be
a more accurate description, as we should see dewpoints crash into the teens
north and 20's central as the afternoon progresses. During the day
temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 40's north, 50's central and
60's south. The tentative cold spot was Tallahassee in the panhandle north
region with 34 deg. I say tentative because I didn't look that closely.
For early Saturday morning 12/21/03 I expect the contiguous subfreezing line
to extend southward to approximately S.R. 54, west of U.S.27 on the west
central peninsula. The freezing temperatures should be accompanied by wind
(advective freeze), negating the warming advantages of locations near trees
and homes. During the day on Saturday I expect another dry cold front to
sweep across the state, this time delivering even lower dewpoints to the
peninsula. Dewpoints in the teens should extend deep into the central
peninsula, setting the stage for a hard freeze into portions of the central
peninsula for Sunday morning.
We can then expect the coldest temperatures of the season on Sunday morning
12/22/03 with a hard freeze across the north and also extending southward
into the inland rural central peninsula down to approximately S.R. 50. We
will see a moderate freeze into the inland rural areas of the central
peninsula down to approximately S.R. 60. and a light freeze deep into the
southern peninsula to approximately the Alligator Alley west of U.S. 27.
Minimum temperatures could be a little colder or warmer depending on the
exact track of the approaching Arctic cold high pressure center. Forecast
model data points to a path across the panhandle north but a SE'ward dip to
the central peninsula is also possible and a bad scenario.
We will then see a slow warm up to near normal by Christmas Eve 12/24/03
with a chance of rain, then colder weather again for Christmas Day 12/25/03.
Back in November 2003 I forecasted a colder then normal December 2003 and it
has come to pass.
I continue to be concerned about the "potential" for a significant freeze
event for the agricultural areas of Florida between Christmas and into the
new year. The series of winter storms racing across the country will help to
create a positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, with is a
ridge in the west and a trough in the east and also a negative North
Atlantic Oscillation. (NAO) It's possible that much of the eastern 2/3's of
the U.S. will have snow cover for an extended period of time.
Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet
stream would eventually undercut the colder PNA pattern and should prevent a
prolonged very cold weather period LIKE WE SAW IN January 2003.
Happy Holidays,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
SKYWARN Observer HIL-249
SWFWMD Observer #574
Plant City, FL, USA
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric
weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available
to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my
day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour
forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily
and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are
necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on
current weather events.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and
inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks
are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life
or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human
error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site
and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual
property and copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida
Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction
of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
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