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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Thu Dec 18 2003 - 11:42:36 EST
Florida Daily Weather Discussion
#2003-66 Published 12/18/03 At 12:00 PM
The coldest air mass of the season settled in over the sunshine state early
this morning. The state cold spot was 25 deg. at Crestview in the NW
panhandle region and 25 deg. also at Nobleton FAWN on the west central
peninsula region. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 36 deg. at
Immokalee.
The contiguous subfreezing line extended down to approximately S.R. 60 on
the central peninsula in inland rural areas. There was also a large
secondary pocket of subfreezing temperature readings on the east and south
central peninsula regions. The subfreezing line did extend further south
then I expected, as the last data I looked at pointed to the cold high
pressure ridge center passing north and east of the peninsula not across it.
Why did it get so cold in the east and south central citrus growing region?
It was simply a case of trajectory, with the cold high pressure center
moving SE from the Gulf Coast to the south central peninsula, as it followed
mid level steering winds. As the high passed west and then south of the
central and northern areas of the state, temperature falls were halted
during the middle of the night as a light westerly onshore flow commenced. A
similar situation occurred during the historic Christmas freeze in 1983,
with the coldest temperatures on the peninsula occurring in the south
central region, with readings in the low to mid teens!
Minimum temperatures for west central Florida this morning.
31 Suburban SW Plant City
31 Rural West Plant City
30 Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)
MM Urban Climate Station Plant City
35 Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
35 Rural FAWN Station Dover
39 Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
32 Rural SW Lakeland
38 Suburban NWS Office Ruskin
36 Rural Balm
29 Rural Darby
32 Urban Dade City
MM Rural NE Zephyrhills
36 Urban Brooksville
28 Suburban Brooksville Airport
25 Rural FAWN Nobleton
28 Rural East Nobleton
28 Rural Nobleton
28 Rural Holder
32 Rural Lady Lake
41 Urban & Coastal Tampa Intl Airport
39 Urban & Coastal Mac Dill AFB
36 Suburban Kenneth City
44 Urban & Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Intl Airport
48 Urban & Coastal St. Pete Albert Whitted Airport
40 Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport
Other notable minimum temperatures include:
East Central Peninsula-
Mount Plymouth 31
Palm Bay 31
Kenansville 32
Deland 32
The Villages 32
South Central Peninsula-
Old Venus 29
Archbold 30
Ft. Pierce ARC 30
Palmdale FAWN 33
Today should be a little on the cool side with mid 50's north, 60 to low 60'
s central and mid to upper 60's south. We should see an onshore west wind
during the overnight hours hold minimum temperatures above freezing for most
of the peninsula. The onshore flow will be ahead of a reinforcing cold front
that will race across the state during the overnight hours and into tomorrow
morning.
We can then expect the coldest air mass of the season with a light freeze in
the inland rural areas of the central peninsula and a near freeze into
inland rural areas of the south central peninsula for Saturday morning
12/21/03. Then a moderate freeze in the inland rural areas of the central
peninsula and a light freeze into inland rural areas of the south central
peninsula for Sunday morning 12/22/03.
We will then see a slow warm up to near normal by Christmas Eve 12/24/03
with a chance of rain and then colder for Christmas Day 12/25/03
I realize that I'm repeating the following three paragraphs below everyday
but it's because the potential has not diminished.
I continue to be concerned about the "potential" for a significant freeze
event for the agricultural areas of Florida between Christmas and into the
new year. The series of winter storms racing across the country will help to
create a positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, with is a
ridge in the west and a trough in the east and also a negative North
Atlantic Oscillation. (NAO) It's possible that much of the eastern 2/3's of
the U.S. will have snow cover for an extended period of time.
Also Alaska and Canada has been a source region for once brutally cold
Arctic air mass after another for the past three months and this will
continue. Recently temperatures have dropped to -60 deg. F in Alaska and -40
deg. F as far south as Saskatchewan, Canada. It all adds up to a possibility
of bitter cold Arctic air racing southward towards Florida with little
modification due to snow cover. This is what happened in December 1983 and
1989.
BUT LIKE I SAID LAST WEEK AND YESTERDAY, I'M NOT PREDICTING A BIG FREEZE. I'
M ONLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL USING CLIMATOLOGY AND TELECONNECTIONS.
Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet
stream would eventually undercut the colder PNA pattern and should prevent a
prolonged very cold weather period LIKE WE SAW IN January 2003.
Happy Holidays,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
SKYWARN Observer HIL-249
SWFWMD Observer #574
Plant City, FL, USA
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric
weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available
to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my
day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour
forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily
and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are
necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on
current weather events.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and
inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks
are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life
or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human
error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site
and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual
property and copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida
Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction
of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
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