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WeatherMatrix
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Prohibited. Usage logged.
From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Tue Sep 16 2003 - 09:38:34 EDT
I've been accused of being obsessive over my observations of and forecast track outlooks of Isabel. I declare once again that Florida is now in the all clear and most everyone with the exception of friends in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast U.S. will no longer receive email updates. Remember to that we have allot of hurricane season left and don't let a miss by a weakening Isabel allow yourself to feel complacent.
Looking at the latest satellite images and data on Hurricane Isabel I suspect that she is probably now only a strong category two. The dry air entrainment into her left quadrants has really diminished her strength and organization. I must say that I did not expect the dry air entrainment and don't remember seeing this ever happen before in the region that she is in.
Re-strengthening is possible as Isabel moves over 89 deg. Gulfstream waters but at the same time she may encounter windshear as she tracks east of South Carolina. For my storm chasing friends, Isabel may yet slow down to a crawl and even come ashore further north then the Outer Banks but you will probably have plenty of time to reposition yourselves further north if necessary. BTW if you have a shortwave receiver that can receive SSB tune into the amateur radio operator run NHC Hurricane Net on 14.325 mc on Wednesday morning.
When all is said and done many in the mid Atlantic region may once again feel that the whole Isabel scenario was overhyped by the media, much like Gloria in 1985. However I am concerned about heavy orographic rainfall and flooding much like with Agnes in 1972.
Take Care,
Thomas Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL Skywarn Spotter #HIL-249
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
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